Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-7 (section)

=== 7.2.4 Risks arising from hazard, exposure and vulnerability ===

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Table 7.1 shows hazards from land-climate-society interactions identified in previous chapters, or in other IPCC reports (with supplementary hazards appearing in the Appendix); the regions that are exposed or will be exposed to these hazards; components of the land-climate systems and societies that are vulnerable to the hazard; the risk associated with these impacts and the available indicative policy responses. The last column shows representative supporting literature.

Included are forest dieback, extreme events in multiple economic and agricultural regimes (also see Sections 7.2.2.1 and 7.2.2.2), disruption in flow regimes in river systems, climate change mitigation impacts (Section 7.2.3.2), competition for land (plastic substitution by cellulose, charcoal production), land degradation and desertification (Section 7.2.2.8), loss of carbon sinks, permafrost destabilisation (Section 7.2.2.7), and stranded assets (Section 7.3.4). Other hazards such as from failure of carbon storage, renewable energy impacts on land use, wild-fire in forest-urban transition context, extreme events effects on cultural heritage and urban air pollution from surrounding land use are covered in Table 7.1 extension in the appendix as well in Section 7.5.6.

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'''Table 7.1'''

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'''Characterising land–climate risk and indicative policy responses.'''

Table shows hazards from land–climate–society interactions identified in previous chapters or in other IPCC reports; the regions that are exposed or will be exposed to these hazards; components of the land-climate systems and societies that are vulnerable to the hazard; the risk associated with these impacts and the available policy responses and response options from Chapter 6. The last column shows representative supporting literature.

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{| class="wikitable"
|-

Land–climate– society interaction hazard

Exposure

Vulnerability

Risk

Policy response (indicative)

References

|-

Forest dieback

Widespread across biomes and regions

Marginalised population with insecure land tenure

– Loss of forest-based livelihoods

– Loss of identity

* –  Land rights
* –  Community-based conservation
* –  Enhanced political enfranchisement
* –  Manager–scientist partnershipsfor adaptation silviculture

Allen et al. 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1573|1573]]</sup> ; McDowell and<br />
Allen 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1574|1574]]</sup> ; Sunderlin et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1575|1575]]</sup> ; Belcher et al. 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r1576|1576]]</sup> ; Soizic et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1577|1577]]</sup> ; Nagel et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1578|1578]]</sup>

|-

Endangered species and ecosystems

– Extinction<br />
– Loss of ecosystem

services (ES) – Cultural loss

– Effective enforcement of protected areas and curbs on illegal trade

– Ecosystem restoration<br />
– Protection of indigenous people

Bailis et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1579|1579]]</sup> ; Cameron et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1580|1580]]</sup>

|-

Extreme events<br />
in multiple economic and agricultural regimes

Global

* –  Food-importing countries
* –  Low-income indebtedness
* –  Net food buyer

– Conflict<br />
– Migration<br />
– Food inflation<br />
– Loss of life<br />
– Disease, malnutrition – Farmer distress

* –  Insurance
* –  Social protection encouragingdiversity of sources
* –  Climate smart agriculture
* –  Land rights and tenure
* –  Adaptive public distribution systems

Fraser et al. 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r1581|1581]]</sup> ; Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r1582|1582]]</sup> ; Lipper et al. 2014a <sup>[[#fn:r1583|1583]]</sup> ; Lunt et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1584|1584]]</sup> ; Tigchelaar et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1585|1585]]</sup> ; Casellas Connors and Janetos 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1586|1586]]</sup>

|-

Disruption of flow regimes<br />
in river systems

– 1.5 billion people, Regional (e.g., South Asia, Australia)

– Aral sea and others

* –  Water-intensive agriculture
* –  Freshwater, estuarine and near coastal ecosystems
* –  Fishers
* –  Endangered species

and ecosystems

– Loss of livelihoods and identity

– Migration<br />
– Indebtedness

* –  Build alternative scenarios for economies and livelihoods based on non-consumptive use (e.g., wild capture fisheries)
* –  Define and maintain ecological flows in rivers for target species and ES
* –  Experiment with alternative, lesswater-consuming crops and watermanagement strategies
* –  Redefine SDGs to include freshwaterecosystems or adopt alternative metrics of sustainability Based on Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP)

Craig 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1587|1587]]</sup> ;<br />
Di Baldassarre<br />
et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1588|1588]]</sup> ;<br />
Verma et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1589|1589]]</sup> ; Ghosh et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1590|1590]]</sup> ; Higgins et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1591|1591]]</sup> ; Hall et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1592|1592]]</sup> ; Youn et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1593|1593]]</sup>

|}
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{| class="wikitable"
|-

Land–climate– society interaction hazard

Exposure

Vulnerability

Risk

Policy response (indicative)

References

|-

Depletion/exhaustion of groundwater

* –  Widespread across semi-arid and humid biomes
* –  India, China and the USA
* –  Small Islands

* –  Farmers, drinking water supply
* –  Irrigation
* –  See forest note above
* –  Agriculturalproduction
* –  Urban sustainability(Phoenix, US)
* –  Reduction in dry-season river flows
* –  Sea level rise

* –  Food insecurity
* –  Water insecurity
* –  Distress migration
* –  Conflict
* –  Disease
* –  Inundation ofcoastal regions, estuaries and deltas

* –  Monitoring of emerging groundwater-climate linkages
* –  Adaptation strategies that reduce dependence on deep groundwater
* –  Regulation of groundwater use
* –  Shift to less water-intensive rainfedcrops and pasture
* –  Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater

Wada et al. 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1594|1594]]</sup> ; Rodell et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r1595|1595]]</sup> ; Taylor et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1596|1596]]</sup> ; Aeschbach-Hertig and Gleeson 2012 <sup>[[#fn:r1597|1597]]</sup>

|-

Climate change mitigation impacts

Across various biomes, especially semi-arid and aquatic, where renewable energy projects (solar, biomass, wind and small hydro) are sited

* –  Fishers and pastoralists
* –  Farmers
* –  Endangered rangerestricted species and ecosystems

* –  Extinction of species
* –  Downstreamloss of ES
* –  Loss of livelihoodsand identity of fisher/pastoralist communities
* –  Loss of regional food security

– Avoidance and informed siting in priority basins

– Mitigation of impacts – Certification

Zomer et al. 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1598|1598]]</sup> ; Nyong et al. 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r1599|1599]]</sup> ; Pielke et al. 2002 <sup>[[#fn:r1600|1600]]</sup> ; Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r1601|1601]]</sup> ; Jumani et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1602|1602]]</sup> ; Eldridge et al. 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r1603|1603]]</sup> ; Bryan et al. 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r1604|1604]]</sup> ; Scarlat and Dallemand 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r1605|1605]]</sup>

|-

Competition for land e.g., plastic substitution<br />
by cellulose, charcoal production

Peri-urban and rural areas in developing countries

– Rural landscapes; farmers; charcoal suppliers;<br />
small businesses

– Land degradation; loss of ES; GHG emissions; lower adaptive capacity

– Sustainability certification; producer permits; subsidies for efficient kilns

Woollen et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r1606|1606]]</sup> ; Kiruki et al. 2017a <sup>[[#fn:r1607|1607]]</sup>

|-

Land degradation and desertification

Arid, semi-arid and sub-humid regions

– Farmers<br />
– Pastoralists – Biodiversity

* –  Food insecurity
* –  Drought
* –  Migration
* –  Loss of agro andwild biodiversity

* –  Restoration of ecosystems and management of invasive species
* –  Climate smart agriculture and livestock management
* –  Managing economic impacts of global and local drivers
* –  Changes in relief and rehabilitation policies
* –  Land degradation neutrality

Fleskens, Luuk, Stringer 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r1608|1608]]</sup> ; Lambin et al. 2001 <sup>[[#fn:r1609|1609]]</sup> ; Cowie et al. 2018a <sup>[[#fn:r1610|1610]]</sup> ; Few and Tebboth 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r1611|1611]]</sup> ; Sandstrom and Juhola 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1612|1612]]</sup>

|-

Loss of carbon sinks

Widespread across biomes and regions

– Tropical forests – Boreal soils

– Feedback to global and regional climate change

– Conservation prioritisation of tropical forests – Afforestation

Barnett et al. 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r1613|1613]]</sup> ; Tribbia and Moser 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r1614|1614]]</sup>

|-

Permafrost destabilisation

Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions

– Soils<br />
– Indigenous

communities – Biodiversity

– Enhanced GHG emissions

– Enhanced carbon uptake from novel ecosystem after thaw

– Adapt to emerging wetlands

Schuur et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r1615|1615]]</sup>

|-

Stranded assets

* –  Economies transitioning to low- carbon pathways
* –  Oil economies
* –  Coastal regionsfacing inundation

– Coal-based power – Oilrefineries<br />
– Plastic industry<br />
– Large dams

– Coastal infrastructure

* –  Disruption of regional economies and conflict
* –  Unemployment
* –  Pushback against renewable energy
* –  Migration

* –  Insurance and tax cuts
* –  Long-term power purchase agreements
* –  Economic and technical supportfor transitioning economies
* –  transforming oil wealth intorenewable energy leadership
* –  Redevelopment using adaptation
* –  OPEC investment in informationsharing for transition

Farfan and Breyer 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1616|1616]]</sup> ; Ansar et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r1617|1617]]</sup> ; Van de Graaf 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r1618|1618]]</sup> ; Trieb et al. 2011 <sup>[[#fn:r1619|1619]]</sup>

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