Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-6 (section)

==== CCP6.2.4.2 Changing demand, opportunities and risks for polar tourism ====

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Climate change has increased risks to, and demand for, polar tourism experiences related to increased maritime accessibility ( ''high confidence'' ), lengthening of warm weather season lengths ( ''very high confidence'' ) and development of a ‘last chance tourism market’ ( ''medium confidence'' ). Reductions in sea ice extent have facilitated increased access for polar cruising ( [[#Dawson--2018b|Dawson et al., 2018b]] ; [[#Stewart--2020|Stewart et al., 2020]] ). Demand for Arctic cruises has increased by 20.5% over the past 5 years and resulted in 27.2 million passengers in 2018 ( [[#Shijin--2020|Shijin et al., 2020]] ). In the Antarctic, tourist numbers increased by 27% from 1992 to 2018 and attracted 75,000 visitors in 2019–2020 (IAATO, 2020; [[#Shijin--2020|Shijin et al., 2020]] ), making it the largest economic sector in the entire region ( [[#Stewart--2020|Stewart et al., 2020]] ). The recent increase in polar tourism is due in part to the development of a niche market called ‘last chance tourism’, which involves explicitly marketing vulnerable or vanishing destinations or features (i.e., glaciers, polar bears, landscapes) and encouraging tourists to see them ‘before they are gone’ ( [[#Dawson--2018a|Dawson et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Groulx--2019|Groulx et al., 2019]] ). However, tourism development opportunities will also contend with ongoing risks related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which halted tourism globally in 2020–2021 ( [[#Frame--2020|Frame and Hemmings, 2020]] ; [[#Lorenzo--2020|Lorenzo et al., 2020]] ), as well as those related to increased climatic risks limiting participation and reducing safety and security. By 2100, under RCP8.5, snow cover season length suitable for winter recreational activities is projected to decrease by 21–49% in West Greenland ( [[#Schrot--2019|Schrot et al., 2019]] ). Reduced sea ice and snow cover creates hazards for and could limit dog sledding, cross country skiing, snowmobiling and floe edge tours, with limited adaptation strategies available for low-elevation areas ( [[#Stephen--2018|Stephen, 2018]] ; [[#Palma--2019|Palma et al., 2019]] ).

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