Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Human vulnerability ===

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'''TS.C.8 Under an inequality scenario (SSP4) by 2030, the number of people living in extreme poverty will increase by 122 million from currently around 700 million (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). Future climate change may increase involuntary displacement, but severe impacts also undermine the capacity of households to use mobility as a coping strategy, causing high exposure to climate risks, with consequences for basic survival, health and well-being (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to increase the adverse consequences of climate change since the financial consequences have led to a shift in priorities and constrain vulnerability reduction (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' { 7.3.2, 8.1.1, 8.3.2, 8.4.4, 8.4.5, 9.11.4, Box 9.8, 16, Table 16.9, CCB COVID, CCB ILLNESS, CCB MOVING SPECIES }

'''TS.C.8.1''' '''Even with current, moderate climate change, vulnerable people will experience a further erosion of livelihood security that can interact with humanitarian crises, such as displacement and involuntary migration (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and violence and armed conflict, and lead to social tipping points (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Under higher emissions scenarios and increasing climate hazards, the potential for societal risks also increases ( ''medium confidence'' ) ''.'' Lessons from COVID-19 risk management have implications for managing urban climate change risk ( ''limited evidence, high agreement'' ). { 4.5.1, 4.5.3, 4.5.4, 4.5.7, 4.5.8, 6.1.1, 6.3, 6.4, 8.2.1, 8.3, 8.4.4, 9.11.4 }

'''TS.C.8.2 Indigenous Peoples and local communities will experience changes in cultural opportunities (''' '''''low''''' '''to''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Cultural heritage is already being impacted by climate change and variability, for example in Africa, Small Island Developing States and the Arctic, where heritage sites are exposed to future climate change risk ( ''high confidence'' ). Coastal erosion and sea level rise are projected to affect natural and cultural coastal heritage sites spread across 36 African countries and all Arctic nations. Frequent drought episodes will lower groundwater tables and gradually expose highly valued archaeological sites to salt weathering and degradation. Coastal inundation and ocean acidification will intensify impacts on sacred sites, including burial grounds, and the corrosion of shipwrecks and underwater ruins. { 3.5.3, 3.5.4, 3.5.5, 3.5.6, 4.5.8, 9.12., 2.1.2, 11.4.1, 11.4.2, 13.8.1.3, 13.8.2, Box 13.2, 14.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] }

'''TS.C.8.3 Climate change increases risks of violent conflict, primarily intrastate conflicts, by strengthening climate-sensitive drivers (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Climate change may produce severe risks to peace within this century through climate variability and extremes, especially in contexts marked by low economic development, high economic dependence on climate-sensitive activities, high or increasing social marginalisation and fragile governance ( ''medium confidence'' ). The largest impacts are expected in weather-sensitive communities with low resilience to climate extremes and high prevalence of underlying risk factors ( ''medium confidence'' ). Trajectories that prioritise economic growth, political rights and sustainability are associated with lower conflict risk ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 4.5.6, 7.3.3, 16.5.2 }

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