Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.3.1 Hazards ====

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A significant increase in the intensity and frequency of warm extremes and length of heatwaves and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes (Skansi et al., 2013) were ''likely'' observed (Figure 12.6) (WGI AR6 Table 11.13) ( [[#Donat--2013|Donat et al., 2013]] ; [[#Almeida--2017|Almeida et al., 2017]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). Precipitation showed increasing trends in annual and wet season totals over the eastern part and decreasing trends in the dry season ( [[#Almeida--2017|Almeida et al., 2017]] ). An increase in the frequency of anomalous severe floods ( [[#Gloor--2015|Gloor et al., 2015]] ) was observed, but insufficient data coverage for extreme precipitation and trends in the available data result in ''low confidence'' ( [[#Avila-Diaz--2020|Avila-Diaz et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dereczynski--2020|Dereczynski et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dunn--2020|Dunn et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sun--2021|Sun et al., 2021]] ) (WGI AR6 Table 11.14) ( [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). Droughts presented mixed trends between sub-regions, but evidence indicates an increasing length of dry periods ( ''low confidence'' ) (WGI AR6 Tables 11.15 and 12.3) (Skansi et al., 2013; [[#Marengo--2016|Marengo and Espinoza, 2016]] ; [[#Spinoni--2019|Spinoni et al., 2019]] ; [[#Avila-Diaz--2020|Avila-Diaz et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dereczynski--2020|Dereczynski et al., 2020]] ; [[#Dunn--2020|Dunn et al., 2020]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ).

An overall increase in temperature by the end of the century is projected for all seasons, from 2°C to 6°C depending on the scenario ( [[#Chou--2014|Chou et al., 2014]] ). Projections also suggest increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes and decreases in the intensity and frequency of cold extremes ( ''very likely'' for a 2°C GWL) (WGI AR6 Table 11.13) ( [[#López-Franca--2016|López-Franca et al., 2016]] ; [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ). In the entire region, extreme maximum temperature estimates under the RCP4.5 scenario are projected to increase. Major tropical cities are expected to be strongly affected by heatwaves and daily record temperatures ( [[#Feron--2019|Feron et al., 2019]] ).

A decrease in precipitation over the tropical region but regional changes, such as increases in rainfall amounts in western NSA of up to 40 mm, are expected by mid-century under RCP8.5 ( [[#Teichmann--2013|Teichmann et al., 2013]] ; [[#Sánchez--2015|Sánchez et al., 2015]] ). Changes in the dry season in the central part of South America (SA) due to the late onset and late retreat of monsoon, decreases in precipitation over the Amazon and central Brazil are expected ( [[#Coppola--2014|Coppola et al., 2014]] ; [[#Giorgi--2014|Giorgi et al., 2014]] ; [[#Llopart--2014|Llopart et al., 2014]] ). Further, an increase in the frequency and geographic extent of meteorological drought in the eastern Amazon and the opposite in the west are expected with ''medium confidence'' ( [[#Duffy--2015|Duffy et al., 2015]] ). A decrease in the total annual precipitation but an increase in heavy precipitation ( [[#Seiler--2013|Seiler et al., 2013]] ; [[#Chou--2014|Chou et al., 2014]] ) are projected for a 2°C GWL (Figure 12.6; WGI AR6 Table 11.15) ( [[#Seneviratne--2021|Seneviratne et al., 2021]] ).

Mean precipitation will decrease, and heavy precipitation, aridity and drought are projected to increase with ''medium confidence'' , whereas mean temperature, extreme heat, fire weather and coastal and oceanic climate impact drivers will all increase with ''high confidence'' (WGI AR6 Table 12.6 and Figure 12.8) ( [[#Sun--2019|Sun et al., 2019]] ; [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] ).

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