Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.4.2.1 Vulnerability to climatic hazards ====

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Drought is a major risk component in cropping systems globally, with substantial economic loss ( [[#Kim--2019b|Kim et al., 2019b]] ), livelihood impacts ( [[#Shiferaw--2014|Shiferaw et al., 2014]] ; [[#Miyan--2015|Miyan, 2015]] ) and ultimately health risks such as malnutrition ( [[#Phalkey--2015|Phalkey et al., 2015]] ; [[#Cooper--2019|Cooper et al., 2019]] ). Vulnerability to drought can be estimated with a range of indicators ( [[#Hagenlocher--2019|Hagenlocher et al., 2019]] ). Meza (2020) showed that drought risks could be exacerbated or moderated by regional differences in vulnerability (Figure 5.5). For instance, high-level risks observed in southern Africa, western Asia and central Asia result from high vulnerability (low coping capacity), whereas risk levels are relatively low despite the high exposure by relatively high adaptive capacity to drought in other regions.

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'''Figure 5.5 |''' '''Hazard and exposure indicator score (a), vulnerability index (b) and drought risk index (c), for rainfed agricultural systems between 1986 and 2015.''' Drought hazard indicator is defined as the ratio of actual crop evapotranspiration to potential crop evapotranspiration, calculated for 24 crops. Vulnerability index is the country-scale weighted average of a total of 64 indicators including social and ecological susceptibility indicators, and coping capacity. Risk index is calculated by multiplying hazard/exposure indicator score and vulnerability index ( [[#Meza--2020|Meza et al., 2020]] ).

Regional-scale assessment also highlights the importance of adaptive capacity. For instance, rice and maize production in Viet Nam Mekong Delta has high exposure to multiple climate hazards such as flooding, sea level rise, salinity intrusion and drought ( [[#Parker--2019|Parker et al., 2019]] ). Risks can be moderated by a relatively high adaptive capacity because of infrastructure, resources and high education levels ( [[#Parker--2019|Parker et al., 2019]] ). Another regional study demonstrated that erratic rains and high temperatures in southern and southeastern Africa increased the vulnerability of agricultural soils, thereby exacerbating impacts of prolonged and frequent droughts (Sonwa et al., 2017a; See also Box 5.4).

Farm-scale assessment exemplifies context-sensitive vulnerability to climate hazards. Studies of coffee growers in Central America demonstrated that key vulnerability indicators varied greatly between regions and between farms, ranging from a lack of labour, postharvest infrastructure, conservation practices and transport that limits access to market, technical and financial assistance ( [[#Baca--2014|Baca et al., 2014]] ; [[#Bouroncle--2017|Bouroncle et al., 2017]] ). These region- and scale-specific vulnerability indicators assist in identifying ways to enhance resilience to climate hazards ( ''high confidence'' ).

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