Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-5 (section)

==== CCP5.3.2.1 KR1: People and Infrastructures at Risks from Landslides and Floods ====

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The amount of people and infrastructure at risk of landslides will increase in regions where the frequency and intensity of rainfall events is projected to rise ( [[#Gariano--2016|Gariano and Guzzetti, 2016]] ; [[#Haque--2019|Haque et al., 2019]] ). Extreme precipitation in major mountain regions is projected to increase, leading to consequences such as floods and landslides ( ''medium confidence'' ). Rain-on-snow events, which can accelerate all flood stages and result in widespread consequence for societies, are projected to increase between 2°C and 4°C GWL (but decrease afterwards) (SROCC [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2|Chapter 2]] ( [[#Hock--2019|Hock et al., 2019]] ), AR6 WGI [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12|Chapter 12]] ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] )). There is high confidence that glacial retreat, slope instabilities and heavy precipitation will affect landslides and flood activities, although for landslides there are considerable uncertainties in the direction of change ( [[#Patton--2019|Patton et al., 2019]] , AR6 WGI [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12|Chapter 12]] ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] )).

Future risk consequences considered to be severe include, for example, an increase of 10–20% compared to present of the population exposed to landslide activities in certain regions (e.g., High Mountain Asia) ( [[#Kirschbaum--2020|Kirschbaum et al., 2020]] ). This does not consider the expected increase in landslide activity relating to glacier and permafrost changes ( [[#Picarelli--2021|Picarelli et al., 2021]] , SROCC [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-2|Chapter 2]] ( [[#Hock--2019|Hock et al., 2019]] )), so it is expected to be a conservative estimate. Other severe consequences are on average a projected twofold increase in the number of people exposed to inland flooding between 2°C and 4°C, with the highest increases in South Asia, Southeast Asia and South America ( ''high confidence'' in the direction of change and ''medium confidence'' in the absolute values because they are based on global studies) ( [[#Hirabayashi--2013|Hirabayashi et al., 2013]] ; [[#Allen--2016|Allen et al., 2016]] ; [[#Arnell--2016|Arnell and Gosling, 2016]] ; [[#Zheng--2021|Zheng et al., 2021]] ). Therefore, high to very high risks are expected between 2°C and 4°C GWL in several mountain regions (red and violet shaded bars in Figure CCP5.5). Many regions are projected to experience high risks due to the timing (potentially for severe consequences to happen sooner rather than later), the magnitude in terms of number of people and infrastructure affected and the persistence of hazard conditions (Figure CCP5.5, AR6 WGI [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-12|Chapter 12]] ( [[#Ranasinghe--2021|Ranasinghe et al., 2021]] )). Comparatively, more severe risk consequences are expected under SSP3 and/or SSP4 given the high population projections in certain regions compared to SSP1 ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Kirschbaum--2020|Kirschbaum et al., 2020]] ) (Figure CCP5.1).

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'''Figure CCP5.5 |''' '''People and infrastructure in mountain regions at risk of landslides and/or floods for various GWLs.'''

'''Panel a)''' shows the level of risk assessed per AR6 WGI reference region (AR6 WGI Atlas ( [[#Gutiérrez--2021|Gutiérrez et al., 2021]] )). For some mountain regions, there is limited evidence for adequately assessing the level of risks against GWLs, so this is labelled ‘not assessed’.

'''Panel b)''' shows the level of risk aggregated at the continent scale and the principal hazards for which evidence was available and assessed. Methodological details and traceability are provided in SMCCP5.4, Figure SMCCP5.1, Table SMCCP5.16 and SMCCP5.18.

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