Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Cities, settlements and infrastructure ===

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'''TS.C.9 Climate change increases risks for a larger number of growing cities and settlements across wider areas, especially in coastal and mountain regions, affecting an additional 2.5 billion people residing in cities mainly in Africa and Asia by 2050 (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). In all cities and urban areas, projected risks faced by people from climate-driven impacts has increased (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Many risks will not be felt evenly across cities and settlements or within cities. Communities in informal settlements will have higher exposure and lower capacity to adapt (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Most at risk are women and children who make up the majority populations of these settlements (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Risks to critical physical infrastructure in cities can be severe and pervasive under higher warming levels, potentially resulting in compound and cascading risks, and can disrupt livelihoods both within and across cities (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). In coastal cities and settlements, risks to people and infrastructure will get progressively worse in a changing climate, sea level rise and with ongoing coastal development (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' { 2.6.5, 6.1, 6.1.4, 6.2, 9.9.4, 16.5, 14.5.5, Box 14.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] }

'''TS.C.9.1 An additional 2.5 billion people are projected to live in urban areas by 2050, with up to 90% of this increase concentrated in the regions of Asia and Africa (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' By 2050, 64% and 60% of Asia’s and Africa’s population respectively will be urban. Growth is most pronounced in smaller and medium-sized urban settlements of up to one million people ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.5.4, 6.1, 6.1.4, 6.2, 9.9.1, 10.4.6 }

'''TS.C.9.2 Asian and African urban areas are considered high-risk locations from projected climate, extreme events, unplanned urbanisation and rapid land use change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' These could amplify pre-existing stresses related to poverty, informality, exclusion and governance, such as in African cities ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate change increases heat stress risks in cities ( ''high confidence'' ) and amplifies the urban heat island across Asian cities at 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels, both substantially larger than under present climates ( ''medium confidence'' ). Urban population exposure to extreme heat in Africa is projected to increase from 2 billion person-days per year in 1985–2005 to 45 billion person-days by the 2060s (1.7°C global warming with low population growth) and to 95 billion person-days (2.8°C global warming with medium-high population growth) ( ''medium confidence'' ). Risks driven by flooding and droughts will also increase in cities ( ''high confidence'' ). Urban populations exposed to severe droughts in West Africa will increase (65.3±34.1 million) at 1.5°C warming and increase further at 2°C ( ''medium confidence'' ). Urban land in flood zones and drylands exposed to high-frequency floods is expected to increase by as much as 2600% and 627% respectively across East, West and Central Africa by 2030. Higher risks from temperature and precipitation extremes are projected for almost all Asian cities under RCP8.5 ( ''medium confidence'' ), impacting on freshwater availability, regional food security, human health and industrial outputs. { 4.3.4, 4.3.5, 4.5.4, 6.1, 6.2, Table 6.3, Table 6.4, 9.9.4, 10.3.7, 10.4.6, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, 15.4.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2.7] , CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.C.9.3 Globally, urban key infrastructure systems are increasingly sites of risk creation that potentially drive compounding and cascading risks (''' '''''high confidence''''' ). Unplanned rapid urbanisation is a major driver of risk, particularly where increasing climate-driven risks affect key infrastructure and potentially result in compounding and cascading risks as cities expand into coastal and mountain regions prone to flooding or landslides that disrupt transportation networks, or where water and energy resources are inadequate to meet the needs of growing settlements ( ''high confidence'' ). These infrastructure risks expand beyond city boundaries; climate-related transport and energy infrastructure damage is projected to be a significant financial burden for African countries, reaching tens to hundreds of billions of US dollars under moderate and high emissions scenarios ( ''high confidence'' ). Projected changes in both the hydrological cycle and the cryosphere will threaten urban water infrastructure and resource management in most regions ( ''very high confidence'' ). South and Southeast Asian coastal cities can experience significant increases in average annual economic losses between 2005 and 2050 due to flooding, with very high losses in east Asian cities under RCP8.5 ( ''high confidence'' ). By 2050, permafrost thaw in the pan-Arctic is projected to impact 69% of infrastructure, more than 1200 settlements, 36,000 buildings, and 4 million people in Europe under RCP4.5. In small islands, degraded terrestrial ecosystems decrease resource provision (e.g., potable water) and amplify the vulnerability of island inhabitants ( ''high confidence'' ). Projections suggest that 350 million (± 158.8 million) more people in urban areas will be exposed to water scarcity from severe droughts at 1.5°C warming and 410.7 million (± 213.5) at 2°C warming ( ''low confidence'' ). { 6.2.2, 9.9.4, 10.4.6, 13.6.1, 13.6.2, 13.11.3, 14.5.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , SMCCP2.1 }

'''TS.C.9.4 The characteristics of coastal cities and settlements means that climate-driven risks to people and infrastructure in many of them are already high and will get progressively worse over the 21st century and beyond''' ( '''''high confidence''''' ). These risks are driven by disproportionately high exposure of multiple assets, economic activities and large coastal populations concentrated in narrow coastal zones. Climate change risks, including sea level rise, interact in intricate ways with non-climatic drivers of coastal change, such as land subsidence, continued infrastructure development in coastal floodplains, the rise of asset values and landward development adversely impacting coastal ecosystems, to shape future risk in coastal settlements ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.9 URBAN) { 3.4.2, 6.2, 6.3, 7.4, 9.9.4, 10, 11.3.5, Box 11.4, 13.6.1, 14.5.5, Box 14.4, 15.3.4, 15.3.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.1 CCP7.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , CCB SLR }

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