Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.4.1.2 Energy Supply: Accelerated Decarbonization ====

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Decreasing the share of coal in energy supply in line with 1.5ºC-compatible scenarios (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2) reduces adverse impacts of upstream supply-chain activities, in particular air and water pollution and coal mining accidents, and enhances health by reducing air pollution, notably in cities, showing synergies with SDGs 3, 11 and 12 (Yang et al., 2016; UNEP, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r190|190]]</sup> .

Fast deployment of renewables such as solar, wind, hydro and modern biomass, together with the decrease of fossil fuels in energy supply (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2.1), is aligned with the doubling of renewables in the global energy mix (SDG 7.2). Renewables could also support progress on SDGs 1, 10, 11 and 12 and supplement new technology ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ) (Chaturvedi and Shukla, 2014; Rose et al., 2014; Smith and Sagar, 2014; Riahi et al., 2015; IEA, 2016; van Vuuren et al., 2017a; McCollum et al., 2018a) <sup>[[#fn:r191|191]]</sup> ''.'' However, some trade-offs with the SDGs can emerge from offshore installations, particularly SDG 14 in local contexts (McCollum et al., 2018b) <sup>[[#fn:r192|192]]</sup> . Moreover, trade-offs between renewable energy production and affordability (SDG 7) (Labordena et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r193|193]]</sup> and other environmental objectives would need to be scrutinised for potential negative social outcomes. Policy interventions through regional cooperation-building (SDG 17) and institutional capacity (SDG 16) can enhance affordability (SDG 7) (Labordena et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r194|194]]</sup> . The deployment of small-scale renewables, or off-grid solutions for people in remote areas (Sánchez and Izzo, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r195|195]]</sup> , has strong potential for synergies with access to energy (SDG 7), but the actualization of these potentials requires measures to overcome technology and reliability risks associated with large-scale deployment of renewables (Giwa et al., 2017; Heard et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r196|196]]</sup> . Bundling energy-efficient appliances and lighting with off-grid renewables can lead to substantial cost reduction while increasing reliability (IEA, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r197|197]]</sup> . Low-income populations in industrialized countries are often left out of renewable energy generation schemes, either because of high start-up costs or lack of home ownership (UNRISD, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r198|198]]</sup> .

Nuclear energy, the share of which increases in most of the 1.5ºC-compatible pathways (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2.1), can increase the risks of proliferation (SDG 16), have negative environmental effects (e.g., for water use; SDG 6) and have mixed effects for human health when replacing fossil fuels (SDGs 7 and 3) (see Table 5.2). The use of fossil CCS, which plays an important role in deep mitigation pathways (see Chapter 2, Section 2.4.2.3), implies continued adverse impacts of upstream supply-chain activities in the coal sector, and because of lower efficiency of CCS coal power plants (SDG 12), upstream impacts and local air pollution are likely to be exacerbated (SDG 3). Furthermore, there is a non-negligible risk of carbon dioxide leakage from geological storage and the carbon dioxide transport infrastructure (SDG 3) (Table 5.2).

Economies dependent upon fossil fuel-based energy generation and/or export revenue are expected to be disproportionally affected by future restrictions on the use of fossil fuels under stringent climate goals and higher carbon prices; this includes impacts on employment, stranded assets, resources left underground, lower capacity use and early phasing out of large infrastructure already under construction ( ''robust evidence, high agreement'' ) (Box 5.2) (Johnson et al., 2015; McGlade and Ekins, 2015; UNEP, 2017; Spencer et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r199|199]]</sup> . Investment in coal continues to be attractive in many countries as it is a mature technology and provides cheap energy supplies, large-scale employment and energy security (Jakob and Steckel, 2016; Vogt-Schilb and Hallegatte, 2017; Spencer et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r200|200]]</sup> . Hence, accompanying policies and measures would be required to ease job losses and correct for relatively higher prices of alternative energy (Oosterhuis and Ten Brink, 2014; Oei and Mendelevitch, 2016; Garg et al., 2017; HLCCP, 2017; Jordaan et al., 2017; OECD, 2017; UNEP, 2017; Blondeel and van de Graaf, 2018; Green, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r201|201]]</sup> . Research on historical transitions shows that managing the impacts on workers through retraining programmes is essential in order to align the phase-down of mining industries with meeting ambitious climate targets, and the objectives of a ‘just transition’ (Galgóczi, 2014; Caldecott et al., 2017; Healy and Barry, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r202|202]]</sup> . This aspect is even more important in developing countries where the mining workforce is largely semi- or unskilled (Altieri et al., 2016; Tung, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r203|203]]</sup> . Ambitious emissions reduction targets can unlock very strong decoupling potentials in industrialized fossil exporting economies (Hatfield-Dodds et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r204|204]]</sup> .

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