Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.3.3.2 Exposure ====

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In NSA the percentage of the national population living in low elevation coastal zones (LECZs) and exposed to SLR is 68% for Suriname, 56% for Guyana and 6% for Venezuela ( [[#Nagy--2019|Nagy et al., 2019]] ). In these countries, the exposure of populations, land areas and built capital to coastal floods is projected to continue and increase ( [[#Neumann--2015|Neumann et al., 2015]] ; [[#Reguero--2015|Reguero et al., 2015]] ).

In the Amazon basin, approximately 80% of the population is concentrated in cities due to migrations in search of improvements in education, job opportunities, health and goods and services ( [[#Eloy--2015|Eloy et al., 2015]] ; [[#Pinho--2015|Pinho et al., 2015]] ). These populations settle in areas prone to flooding combined with various levels of sanitation due to limited economic access to areas of lower risk ( [[#Pinho--2015|Pinho et al., 2015]] ; [[#Mansur--2016|Mansur et al., 2016]] ; Andrade and Szlafsztein, 2018; [[#Parry--2018|Parry et al., 2018]] ). In these areas, poor urban planning and high population densities increase exposure levels ( [[#Mansur--2016|Mansur et al., 2016]] ). In this context, 41% of the total population of urban centres of the Amazon delta and estuary (ADE) are exposed to flooding ( [[#Mansur--2016|Mansur et al., 2016]] ), while in Santarem, population and infrastructure are highly exposed to floods and flash floods (Andrade and Szlafsztein, 2018).

Exposure of the Brazilian Amazon to severe to extreme drought has increased from 8% in 2004/2005 to 16% in 2009/2010 and 16% in 2015/2016 ( [[#Anderson--2018b|Anderson et al., 2018b]] ); a similar trend is reported in other regions (Table 12.3). During the extreme drought of 2015/2016 in the Amazonian forests, 10% or more of the area showed negative anomalies of the minimum cumulative water deficit ( [[#Anderson--2018b|Anderson et al., 2018b]] ). This extreme drought also caused an increase in the occurrence and spread of fires in the basin ( ''medium confidence: medium evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Aragão--2018|Aragão et al., 2018]] ; [[#Lima--2018|Lima et al., 2018]] ; [[#Silva%20Junior--2019|Silva Junior et al., 2019]] ; [[#Bilbao--2020|Bilbao et al., 2020]] ). Exposure to anomalous fires in ecosystems such as savannahs, which are more fire-prone, increases the exposure and vulnerability of adjacent forest ecosystems not adapted to fire, such as seasonally flooded forests ( [[#Bilbao--2020|Bilbao et al., 2020]] ; [[#Flores--2021|Flores and Holmgren, 2021]] ).

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