Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-4 (section)

=== CCP4.4.5 Limits to Adaptation, Equity and Climate Justice ===

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There is ''low confidence'' that the Mediterranean region can adapt to rapid sea level rise for the case of rapid Antarctic ice-sheets collapse, even in regions with high capabilities to adapt, such as the northwest Mediterranean ( [[#Poumadère--2008|Poumadère et al., 2008]] ). Residual coastal risks are still largely unquantified. For moderate levels of sea level rise, it is ''unlikely'' that these changes alone will exceed the technical limits of coastal adaptation over the 21st century ( [[#Hinkel--2018|Hinkel et al., 2018]] ). Beyond 2100, continued sea level rise may require managed retreat in low-lying Mediterranean areas, particularly in delta areas, such as the Nile (Figure CCP4.6). There is little knowledge on the potential for adaptation at these timescales.

Regional adaptation initiatives occur in a highly asymmetric geographic context characterised by contrasting demographic, environmental and socioeconomic trends in the southern, eastern and northern parts of the Mediterranean Basin ( [[#Pausas--2012|Pausas and Fernández-Muñoz, 2012]] ). Adaptation plans in Mediterranean countries are also limited by a lack of effective regional governance schemes (with the partial exception of European countries subject to the European directives and strategies), hampering the effective implementation of regionally harmonised adaptation strategies, plans and quantitative targets ( [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP, 2016]] ; [[#Sachs--2019|Sachs et al., 2019]] ). Adaptation to sea level rise is essentially limited by social barriers along urban coasts in the northwest Mediterranean at present ( [[#Hinkel--2018|Hinkel et al., 2018]] ), while the adaptation dilemma involving economic and financial barriers is greater in peri-urban, rural and natural areas, as well as in the southern and eastern Mediterranean. In addition, limited regional monitoring of risks and adaptation options hampers adaptation in domains and sectors ( [[#Cramer--2018|Cramer et al., 2018]] ).

In the Mediterranean region, vulnerability is strongly affected by equity: people most vulnerable to the effects of climate change are the elderly, especially women ( [[#Iñiguez--2016|Iñiguez et al., 2016]] ; [[#Achebak--2018|Achebak et al., 2018]] ) and children, who are often strongly affected by climate change ( [[#Watts--2019|Watts et al., 2019]] ). An increase of heat waves poses a significant health risk especially for young children living in urban areas ( [[#UNICEF--2014|UNICEF, 2014]] ; [[#Perera--2017|Perera, 2017]] ; [[#Royé--2017|Royé, 2017]] ) and for elderly women, in particular those affected by other conditions such as respiratory diseases ( [[#Sellers--2016|Sellers, 2016]] ; [[#Achebak--2018|Achebak et al., 2018]] ). Children and future generations in eastern Mediterranean countries are those most at risk of food insecurity, in both quantity and quality ( [[#Prosperi--2014|Prosperi et al., 2014]] ). In the region, many children are particularly vulnerable due to scarcity of drinking water and food, aggravated by droughts and flooding ( [[#Philipsborn--2018|Philipsborn and Chan, 2018]] ). The potential for adaptation to and preparation for vector-borne diseases and other health risks, expected to increase with climate change, differs among Mediterranean countries ( [[#Negev--2015|Negev et al., 2015]] ). Climate change in the Mediterranean region also impacts some groups disproportionately (e.g., poor farmers, urban migrants, seasonal workers) and livelihoods ( [[#Waha--2017|Waha et al., 2017]] ), favouring mobility and migration ( [[#Nori--2020|Nori and Farinella, 2020]] ).

To safeguard the rights of the most vulnerable people in the Mediterranean region, climate adaptation plans and measures must consider the cost of adaptation ( [[#Watts--2019|Watts et al., 2019]] ). In addition, some adaptation options can have side and residual effects, favouring some countries/groups over others. Climate-just adaptation options are those that promote fair solutions for all and take into account region-specific socioeconomic and geopolitical variabilities and vulnerabilities, such as the lack of inclusive and participatory approaches ( [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote, 2015]] ) and pre-existing vulnerabilities, as in the case of Palestine ( [[#Jarrar--2015|Jarrar, 2015]] ) and Syria ( [[#Gleick--2014|Gleick, 2014]] ).

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