Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/SPM (section)

=== Achieving Climate Resilient Development ===

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'''D.5 It is unequivocal that climate change has already disrupted human and natural systems. Past and current development trends (past emissions, development and climate change) have not advanced global climate resilient development ( '''''very high confidence''''' ). Societal choices and actions implemented in the next decade determine the extent to which medium- and long-term pathways will deliver higher or lower climate resilient development ( '''''high confidence''''' ). Importantly climate resilient development prospects are increasingly limited if current greenhouse gas emissions do not rapidly decline, especially if 1.5°C global warming is exceeded in the near-term ( '''''high confidence''''' ). These prospects are constrained by past development, emissions and climate change, and enabled by inclusive governance, adequate and appropriate human and technological resources, information, capacities and finance ( '''''high confidence''''' ).   Expand Links to chapters Figure TS.14d, 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 2.6, 2.7, 3.6, 4.7, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.10, 13.11, 14.7, 15.3, 15.6, 15.7, 16.2, 16.4, 16.5, 16.6, 17.2–17.6, 18.2–18.5, CCP2.3–2.4, CCP3.4, CCP4.4, CCP5.3, CCP5.4, Table CCP5.2, CCP6.3, CCP6.4, CCP7.5, CCP7.6, CCB DEEP, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR'''
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'''D.5.1''' Climate resilient development is already challenging at current global warming levels ( ''high confidence'' ). The prospects for climate resilient development will be further limited if global warming levels exceeds 1.5°C ( ''high confidence'' ) and not be possible in some regions and sub-regions if the global warming level exceeds 2°C ( ''medium confidence'' ). Climate resilient development is most constrained in regions/subregions in which climate impacts and risks are already advanced, including low-lying coastal cities and settlements, small islands, deserts, mountains and polar regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Regions and subregions with high levels of poverty, water, food and energy insecurity, vulnerable urban environments, degraded ecosystems and rural environments, and/or few enabling conditions, face many non-climate challenges that inhibit climate resilient development which are further exacerbated by climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). { Figure TS.14d, 1.2, Box 6.6, 9.3, 9.4, 9.5, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.10, 14.7, 15.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.4 CCP3.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.3 CCP5.3] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.2 CCP5.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.3 CCP6.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.5 CCP7.5] }

'''D.5.2''' Inclusive governance, investment aligned with climate resilient development, access to appropriate technology and rapidly scaled-up finance, and capacity building of governments at all levels, the private sector and civil society enable climate resilient development. Experience shows that climate resilient development processes are timely, anticipatory, integrative, flexible and action focused. Common goals and social learning build adaptive capacity for climate resilient development ''.'' When implementing adaptation and mitigation together, and taking trade-offs into account, multiple benefits and synergies for human well-being as well as ecosystem and planetary health can be realised. Prospects for climate resilient development are increased by inclusive processes involving local knowledge and Indigenous Knowledge as well as processes that coordinate across risks and institutions. Climate resilient development is enabled by increased international cooperation including mobilising and enhancing access to finance, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups. ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure SPM.5) { 2.7, 3.6, 4.8, 5.14, 6.4, 7.4, 8.5, 8.6, 9.4, 10.6, 11.8, 12.5, 13.11, 14.7, 15.6, 15.7, 17.2–17.6, 18.2–18.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] –2.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP3.4 CCP3.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP4.4 CCP4.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP5.4 CCP5.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP6.4 CCP6.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/spm#CCP7.6 CCP7.6] , CCB DEEP, CCB HEALTH, CCB INDIG, CCB NATURAL, CCB SLR }

'''D.5.3''' The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. ( ''very high confidence'' ) { 1.2, 1.4, 1.5, 16.2, Table SM16.24, 16.4, 16.5, 16.6, 17.4, 17.5, 17.6, 18.3, 18.4, 18.5, CCB DEEP, CWGB URBAN, WGI AR6 SPM, SROCC SPM, SRCCL SPM }

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[[#footnote-049-backlink|1]] Decision IPCC/XLVI-3, The assessment covers scientific literature accepted for publication by 1 September 2021.

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[[#footnote-048-backlink|2]] The three Special Reports are: ‘Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty (SR1.5)’; ‘Climate Change and Land. An IPCC Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (SRCCL)’; ‘IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)’.

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[[#footnote-047-backlink|3]] Biodiversity: Biodiversity or biological diversity means the variability among living organisms from all sources including, among other things, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems, and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species, between species, and of ecosystems.

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[[#footnote-046-backlink|4]] Each finding is grounded in an evaluation of underlying evidence and agreement. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, e.g., ''medium confidence'' . The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: virtually certain 99–100% probability, very likely 90–100%, likely 66–100%, as likely as not 33–66%, unlikely 0–33%, very unlikely 0–10%, exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, e.g., ''very likely'' . This is consistent with AR5 and the other AR6 Reports.

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[[#footnote-045-backlink|5]] Risk is defined as the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems.

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[[#footnote-044-backlink|6]] Hazard is defined as the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources. Physical climate conditions that may be associated with hazards are assessed in Working Group I as climatic impact-drivers.

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[[#footnote-043-backlink|7]] Exposure is defined as the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.

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[[#footnote-042-backlink|8]] Vulnerability in this report is defined as the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected and encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.

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[[#footnote-041-backlink|9]] Key risks have potentially severe adverse consequences for humans and social-ecological systems resulting from the interaction of climate related hazards with vulnerabilities of societies and systems exposed.

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[[#footnote-040-backlink|10]] Adaptation is defined, in human systems, as the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects in order to moderate harm or take advantage of beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, adaptation is the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate this.

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[[#footnote-039-backlink|11]] Adaptation limits: The point at which an actor’s objectives (or system needs) cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions. Hard adaptation limit—No adaptive actions are possible to avoid intolerable risks. Soft adaptation limit—Options may exist but are currently not available to avoid intolerable risks through adaptive action.

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[[#footnote-038-backlink|12]] Resilience in this report is defined as the capacity of social, economic and ecosystems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure as well as biodiversity in case of ecosystems while also maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning and transformation. Resilience is a positive attribute when it maintains such a capacity for adaptation, learning, and/or transformation.

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[[#footnote-037-backlink|13]] Feasibility refers to the potential for an adaptation option to be implemented.

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[[#footnote-036-backlink|14]] Justice is concerned with setting out the moral or legal principles of fairness and equity in the way people are treated, often based on the ethics and values of society. ''Social justice'' comprises just or fair relations within society that seek to address the distribution of wealth, access to resources, opportunity and support according to principles of justice and fairness. ''Climate justice'' comprises justice that links development and human rights to achieve a rights-based approach to addressing climate change.

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[[#footnote-035-backlink|15]] Maladaptation refers to actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, including via increased greenhouse gas emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability to climate change, more inequitable outcomes, or diminished welfare, now or in the future. Most often, maladaptation is an unintended consequence.

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[[#footnote-034-backlink|16]] Transformation refers to a change in the fundamental attributes of natural and human systems.

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[[#footnote-033-backlink|17]] Ecosystem health: a metaphor used to describe the condition of an ecosystem, by analogy with human health. Note that there is no universally accepted benchmark for a healthy ecosystem. Rather, the apparent health status of an ecosystem is judged on the ecosystem’s resilience to change, with details depending upon which metrics (such as species richness and abundance) are employed in judging it and which societal aspirations are driving the assessment.

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[[#footnote-032-backlink|18]] Planetary health: a concept based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on ecosystem health and the wise stewardship of ecosystems.

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[[#footnote-031-backlink|19]] In this report, the term ‘losses and damages’ refers to adverse observed impacts and/or projected risks and can be economic and/or non-economic.

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[[#footnote-030-backlink|20]] In the WGII report, climate resilient development refers to the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development for all.

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[[#footnote-029-backlink|21]] RCP-based scenarios are referred to as RCPy, where ‘y’ refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square meter, or W m -2 ) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100.

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[[#footnote-028-backlink|22]] SSP-based scenarios are referred to as SSPx-y, where ‘SSPx’ refers to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway describing the socioeconomic trends underlying the scenarios, and ‘y’ refers to the level of radiative forcing (in watts per square meter, or W m -2 ) resulting from the scenario in the year 2100.

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[[#footnote-027-backlink|23]] IPCC is neutral with regard to the assumptions underlying the SSPs, which do not cover all possible scenarios. Alternative scenarios may be considered or developed.

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[[#footnote-026-backlink|24]] In the WGI report, square brackets [x to y] are used to provide the assessed ''very likely'' range, or 90% interval.

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[[#footnote-025-backlink|25]] Since AR5, methodological advances and new datasets have provided a more complete spatial representation of changes in surface temperature, including in the Arctic. These and other improvements have also increased the estimate of global surface temperature change by approximately 0.1°C, but this increase does not represent additional physical warming since AR5.

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[[#footnote-024-backlink|26]] Global warming of 1.5°C relative to 1850–1900 would be exceeded during the 21st century under the intermediate, high and very high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios considered in this report (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). Under the five illustrative scenarios, in the near term (2021–2040), the 1.5°C global warming level is ''very likely'' to be exceeded under the very high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), ''likely'' to be exceeded under the intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0), ''more likely than not'' to be exceeded under the low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and ''more likely than not'' to be reached under the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9). Furthermore, for the very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), it is ''more likely than not'' that global surface temperature would decline back to below 1.5°C toward the end of the 21st century, with a temporary overshoot of no more than 0.1°C above 1.5°C global warming.

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[[#footnote-023-backlink|27]] Overshoot: In this report, pathways that first exceed a specified global warming level (usually 1.5°C, by more than 0.1°C), and then return to or below that level again before the end of a specified period of time (e.g., before 2100). Sometimes the magnitude and likelihood of the overshoot is also characterized. The overshoot duration can vary from at least one decade up to several decades.

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[[#footnote-022-backlink|28]] Attribution is defined as the process of evaluating the relative contributions of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assessment of confidence. { Annex II Glossary, CWGB ATTRIB }

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[[#footnote-021-backlink|29]] Impacts of climate change are caused by slow onset and extreme events. Slow onset events are described among the climatic-impact drivers of the WGI AR6 and refer to the risks and impacts associated with e.g., increasing temperature means, desertification, decreasing precipitation, loss of biodiversity, land and forest degradation, glacial retreat and related impacts, ocean acidification, sea level rise and salinization ( https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch ).

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[[#footnote-020-backlink|30]] Acute food insecurity can occur at any time with a severity that threatens lives, livelihoods or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration, as a result of shocks risking determinants of food security and nutrition, and used to assess the need for humanitarian action.

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[[#footnote-019-backlink|31]] Governance: The structures, processes and actions through which private and public actors interact to address societal goals. This includes formal and informal institutions and the associated norms, rules, laws and procedures for deciding, managing, implementing and monitoring policies and measures at any geographic or political scale, from global to local.

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[[#footnote-018-backlink|32]] Balanced diets feature plant-based foods, such as those based on coarse grains, legumes fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and animal-source foods produced in resilient, sustainable and low-greenhouse gas emissions systems, as described in SRCCL.

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[[#footnote-017-backlink|33]] Numbers of species assessed are in the tens of thousands globally.

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[[#footnote-016-backlink|34]] The term ‘very high risks of extinction’ is used here consistently with the IUCN categories and criteria and equates with ‘critically endangered’.

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[[#footnote-015-backlink|35]] The assessment found estimated rates of increase in projected global economic damages that were both greater than linear and less than linear as global warming level increases. There is evidence that some regions could benefit from low levels of warming ( ''high confidence'' ). { CWGB ECONOMIC }

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[[#footnote-014-backlink|36]] ''Low confidence'' assigned due to the assessed lack of comparability and robustness of global aggregate economic damage estimates. { CWGB ECONOMIC }

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[[#footnote-013-backlink|37]] In this report, overshoot pathways exceed 1.5°C global warming and then return to that level, or below, after several decades.

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[[#footnote-012-backlink|38]] Despite limited evidence specifically on the impacts of a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, a much broader evidence base from process understanding and the impacts of higher global warming levels allows a high confidence statement on the irreversibility of some impacts that would be incurred following such an overshoot.

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[[#footnote-011-backlink|39]] At the global scale, terrestrial ecosystems currently remove more carbon from the atmosphere (-3.4 ± 0.9 Gt yr -1 ) than they emit (+1.6 ± 0.7 Gt yr -1 ), a net sink of -1.9 ± 1.1 Gt yr -1 . However, recent climate change has shifted some systems in some regions from being net carbon sinks to net carbon sources.

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[[#footnote-010-backlink|40]] Adaptation gaps are defined as the difference between actually implemented adaptation and a societally set goal, determined largely by preferences related to tolerated climate change impacts and reflecting resource limitations and competing priorities.

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[[#footnote-009-backlink|41]] In this report, feasibility refers to the potential for a mitigation or adaptation option to be implemented. Factors influencing feasibility are context-dependent, temporally dynamic, and may vary between different groups and actors. Feasibility depends on geophysical, environmental-ecological, technological, economic, socio-cultural and institutional factors that enable or constrain the implementation of an option. The feasibility of options may change when different options are combined and increase when enabling conditions are strengthened.

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[[#footnote-008-backlink|42]] Effectiveness refers to the extent to which an adaptation option is anticipated or observed to reduce climate-related risk.

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[[#footnote-007-backlink|43]] In this report, the term natural forests describes those which are subject to little or no direct human intervention, whereas the term managed forests describes those where planting or other management activities take place, including those managed for commodity production.

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[[#footnote-006-backlink|44]] Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA) is recognised internationally under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD14/5). A related concept is Nature-based Solutions (NbS), which includes a broader range of approaches with safeguards, including those that contribute to adaptation and mitigation. The term ‘Nature-based Solutions’ is widely but not universally used in the scientific literature. The term is the subject of ongoing debate, with concerns that it may lead to the misunderstanding that NbS on its own can provide a global solution to climate change.

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[[#footnote-005-backlink|45]] The term ‘response’ is used here instead of adaptation because some responses, such as retreat, may or may not be considered to be adaptation.

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[[#footnote-004-backlink|46]] Climate literacy encompasses being aware of climate change, its anthropogenic causes and implications.

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[[#footnote-003-backlink|47]] From AR5, an option ''that would generate net social and/or economic benefits under current climate change and a range of future climate change scenarios'' , and represent one example of robust strategies.

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[[#footnote-002-backlink|48]] Institutions: Rules, norms and conventions that guide, constrain or enable human behaviours and practices. Institutions can be formally established, for instance through laws and regulations, or informally established, for instance by traditions or customs. Institutions may spur, hinder, strengthen, weaken or distort the emergence, adoption and implementation of climate action and climate governance.

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[[#footnote-001-backlink|49]] LECZ, coastal areas below 10 m of elevation above sea level that are hydrologically connected to the sea.

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[[#footnote-000-backlink|50]] Ecosystem integrity refers to the ability of ecosystems to maintain key ecological processes, recover from disturbance, and adapt to new conditions.