Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Economic sectors ===

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'''TS.C.10 Across sectors and regions, market and non-market damage and adaptation costs will be lower at 1.5°C compared to 3°C or higher global warming levels (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Some recent estimates of projected global economic damage from climate impacts are higher than previous estimates and generally increase with global average temperature (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). However, the spread in the estimates of the magnitude of this damage is substantial and does not allow for robust range to be established (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Non-market, non-economic damage and adverse impacts on livelihoods will be concentrated in regions and populations that are already more vulnerable (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Socioeconomic drivers and more inclusive development will largely determine the extent of this damage (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' { 4.4.4, 4.7.5, 9.11.2, 10.4.6, 11.5.2, 13.10.2, 13.10.3, 14.5.8, Box 14.6, 16.5.2, 16.5.3 }

'''TS.C.10.1 Without limiting warming to 1.5°C global warming level, many key risks are projected to intensify rapidly in almost all regions of the world, causing damage to assets and infrastructure and losses to economic sectors and entailing high recovery and adaptation costs (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Severe risks are more likely in developing regions that are already hotter and in regions and communities with a large portion of the workforce employed in highly exposed industries (e.g., agriculture, fisheries, forestry, tourism, outdoor labour). In addition to market damage and disaster management costs, substantial costs of climate inaction are projected for human health ( ''high confidence'' ). At higher levels of warming, climate impacts will pose risks to financial and insurance markets, especially if climate risks are incompletely internalised ( ''medium confidence'' ), with adverse implications for the stability of markets ( ''low confidence'' ). While the overall economic consequences are clearly negative, opportunities may arise for a few economic sectors and regions, such as from longer growing seasons or reduced sea ice, primarily in northern latitudes ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ). { 4.4.4, 4.7.5, 9.11.2, 10.4.6, 11.6, 13.9.2, 13.10.3, 14.5.4, 14.5.5, 14.5.7, 14.5.8, 14.5.9, Box 14.5, Box 14.6, 16.5.2, 16.5.3, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP4.2 CCP4.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , CCB INTEREG }

'''TS.C.10.2 Estimates of global economic damage generally increase non-linearity with warming and some are larger than previous estimates (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Some recent estimates have increased relative to the range reported in AR5, though there is low agreement and significant spread within and across methodology types (e.g., statistical, structural, meta-analysis), resulting in an inability to identify a best estimate or robust range ( ''high confidence'' ). Under high warming (&gt;4°C) and limited adaptation, the magnitude of decline in annual global GDP in 2100 relative to a non-global-warming scenario could exceed economic losses during the Great Recession in 2008–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Much smaller effects are estimated for less warming, lower vulnerability and more adaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ). Regional estimates of GDP damage vary ( ''high confidence'' ). Severe risks are more likely in (typically hotter) developing countries ( ''medium confidence'' ). For Africa, GDP damage is projected to be negative across models and approaches ( ''high confidence'' ). { 4.4.4, 4.7.5, 9.11.2, 10.4.6, 13.10.2, 13.10.3, 14.5.8, Box 14.6, 16.5.2, 16.6.3, CWGB ECONOMIC }

'''TS.C.10.3 Even at low levels of warming, climate change will disrupt the livelihoods of tens to hundreds of millions of additional people in regions with high exposure and vulnerability and low adaptation in climate-sensitive regions, ecosystems and economic sectors (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' If future climate change under high emissions scenarios continues and increases risks, without strong adaptation measures, losses and damage will likely be concentrated among the poorest vulnerable populations ( ''high confidence'' ). { 8.4.5, 9.11.4, Box 15.2, 16.5.3 }

'''TS.C.10.4 Potential socioeconomic futures, in terms of population, economic development and orientation towards growth, vary widely and these drivers have a large influence on the economic costs of climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Higher growth scenarios along higher warming levels increase exposure to hazards and assets at risk, such as sea level rise for coastal regions, which will have large implications for economic activities, including shipping and ports ( ''high confidence'' ). The high sensitivity of developing economies to climate impacts will pose increasing challenges to economic growth and performance, although projections depend as much or more on future socioeconomic development pathways and mitigation policies as on warming levels ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 9.11.2, 11.4, 13.2.1, 16.5.3, CCB SLR, CWGB ECONOMIC }

'''TS.C.10.5 Large non-market and non-economic losses are projected, especially at higher warming levels (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' This wide range of effects underscore the impact of climate change on welfare and the adverse effects on vulnerable populations ( ''medium confidence'' ). Including as many of these impacts in decision-making as possible, and as part of the social cost of carbon, will improve evaluation of the overall and distributional effects of climate mitigation and adaptation actions as well as in more comprehensively internalising climate impacts. { 1.5.1, 4.5.8, 4.7.5, 8.4.1, 8.4.5, Map 8.8, 16.5.2, Box 14.6, CWGB ECONOMIC }

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