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== 1.6 Achieving Mitigation in the Context of Sustainable Development ==

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This chapter now sets out approaches to understanding the mitigation challenge, working from its broad location in the context of wider aspirations for sustainable development, then identifying specific analytic approaches, before summarising the corresponding main dimensions used for the assessment of options and pathways in much of the report.

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=== 1.6.1 The Climate Change and Development Connection ===

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Climate change mitigation is one of many goals that societies pursue in the context of sustainable development, as evidenced by the wide range of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Climate change and sustainable development, as well as development more broadly, are interwoven along multiple and complex lines of relationship ( [[#Okereke--2009|Okereke et al. 2009]] ; [[#Fankhauser--2016|Fankhauser and McDermott 2016]] ; [[#Okereke--2017|Okereke and Massaquoi 2017]] ; [[#Gomez-Echeverri--2018a|Gomez-Echeverri 2018a]] ), as highlighted in several previous IPCC reports ( [[#IPCC--2007|IPCC 2007]] , 2011a, 2014a, 2018b, 2019a). With its significant negative impact on natural systems, food security and infrastructure, loss of lives and territories, species extinction, conflict health, among several other risks, climate change poses a serious threat to development and wellbeing in both rich and poor countries ( [[#IPCC--2007|IPCC 2007]] , 2011a, 2014a, 2018b, 2019b). Without serious efforts at mitigation and adaptation, climate change could push millions further into poverty and limit the opportunities for economic development (Chapters 4 and 17). It follows that ambitious climate mitigation is necessary to secure a safe climate within which development and well-being can be pursued and sustained.

At the same time, rapid and large-scale economic development (which has in the past driven climate change through land-use change and dependence on fossil fuels), is widely seen as needed to improve global well-being and lift millions especially in low- and middle-income countries out of poverty ( [[#Chen--2017|Chen et al. 2017]] ; [[#Mugambiwa--2017|Mugambiwa and Tirivangasi 2017]] ; [[#Lu--2019|Lu et al. 2019]] ; [[#Baarsch--2020|Baarsch et al. 2020]] ) (Figure 1.6). This strand of literature emphasises the importance of economic growth including for tackling climate change itself, pointing to the relationship between economic development and climate resilience as well as the role of industry-powered technologies such as electric vehicles in reducing GHG levels and promoting well-being ( [[#Heinrichs--2014|Heinrichs et al. 2014]] ; [[#Kasztelan--2017|Kasztelan 2017]] ). Yet, others argue that the character of social and economic development produced by the nature of capitalist society ( [[#Pelling--2011|Pelling and Manuel-Navarrete 2011]] ; Koch 2012; [[#Malm--2016|Malm 2016]] ) is ultimately unsustainable.

There are at least two major implications of the very close link between climate change and development as outlined above. The first is that the choice of development paths made by countries and regions have significant consequences for GHG emissions and efforts to combat climate change (Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5 and 14). The second is that climate mitigation at local, national and global levels cannot be effectively achieved by a narrow focus on ‘climate-specific’ sectors, actors and policies, but rather through a much broader attention to the mix of development choices and the resulting development paths and trajectories ( [[#O’Neill--2014|O’Neill et al. 2014]] ) (Chapters 4, 6 and 10).

As a key staple of IPCC reports and the global climate policy landscape ( [[#IPCC--2007|IPCC 2007]] , [[#IPCC--2014b|2014b]] ; [[#van%20Vuuren--2017|van Vuuren et al. 2017]] ; [[#Gidden--2019|Gidden et al. 2019]] ; [[#Quilcaille--2019|Quilcaille et al. 2019]] ) (Chapter 2), integrated assessment models and global scenarios (such as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways – SSPs) highlight the interaction between development paths, climate change and emission stabilisation ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.6|Section 3.6]] ). The close links are also recognised in the PA ( [[#1.3.1|Section 1.3.1]] ).

The impact of climate change in limiting well-being is most acutely felt by the world’s poorest people, communities, and nations, who have the smallest carbon footprint, constrained capacity to respond and limited voice in important decision-making circles ( [[#Okereke--2015|Okereke and Ehresman 2015]] ; [[#Tosam--2015|Tosam and Mbih 2015]] ; [[#Mugambiwa--2017|Mugambiwa and Tirivangasi 2017]] ). The wide variation in the contribution to, and impact of climate change within and across countries makes equity, inequality, justice, and poverty eradication, inescapable aspects of the relationship between sustainable development and climate change ( [[#Okereke--2016|Okereke and Coventry 2016]] ; [[#Klinsky--2017|Klinsky et al. 2017]] ; [[#Reckien--2017|Reckien et al. 2017]] ; [[#Bos--2019|Bos and Gupta 2019]] ; [[#Kayal--2019|Kayal et al. 2019]] ; [[#Diffenbaugh--2019|Diffenbaugh and Burke 2019]] ; [[#Baarsch--2020|Baarsch et al. 2020]] ). This underpins the conclusion, as commonly expressed, that climate action needs to be pursued in the context of sustainable development, equity and poverty eradication ( [[#Smit--2001|Smit et al. 2001]] ; [[#Tschakert--2005|Tschakert and Olsson 2005]] ; [[#IPCC--2014a|IPCC 2014a]] , [[#IPCC--2018b|IPCC 2018b]] ; [[#Klinsky--2014|Klinsky and Winkler 2014]] ).

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=== 1.6.2 Concepts and Frameworks for Integrating Climate Mitigation and Development ===

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At one level, sustainable development can be seen as a meta framework for integrating climate action with other global sustainability goals ( [[#Casadio%20Tarabusi--2013|Casadio Tarabusi and Guarini 2013]] ; [[#Antal--2016|Antal and Van Den Bergh 2016]] ). Fundamentally, the concept of sustainable development underscores the interlinkages and interdependence of human and natural systems and the need to balance economic, social, and environmental (including climate pollution) aspects in development planning and processes ( [[#Nunan--2017|Nunan 2017]] ; [[#Gomez-Echeverri--2018b|Gomez-Echeverri 2018b]] ; [[#Zhenmin--2019|Zhenmin and Espinosa 2019]] ).

Despite the appeal of the concept, tensions remain over the interpretation and practical application, with acute disagreements regarding what the balancing entails in real life, how to measure well-being, which goals to set, and the means through which such goals might be pursued ( [[#Arrow--2011|Arrow et al. 2011]] ; [[#Dasgupta--2015|Dasgupta et al. 2015]] ; [[#Michelsen--2016|Michelsen et al. 2016]] ; [[#Okereke--2017|Okereke and Massaquoi 2017]] ; [[#UNEP--2018b|UNEP 2018b]] ; [[#Haberl--2019|Haberl et al. 2019]] ; [[#Shang--2019|Shang et al. 2019]] ; [[#Sugiawan--2019|Sugiawan et al. 2019]] ).

Moreover, countries differ enormously in their respective situation regarding their development path – a condition which affects their capability, goals, priorities and approach to the pursuit of sustainability ( [[#Shi--2016|Shi et al. 2016]] ; [[#Ramos-Mejía--2018|Ramos-Mejía et al. 2018]] ; [[#Okereke--2019|Okereke et al. 2019]] ). Most of the literature recognises that despite its limitations, sustainable development with its emphasis on integrating social, economic and environmental goals, provides a more comprehensive approach to the pursuit of planetary health and human well-being. Sustainable development is then not a static objective but a dynamic framework for measuring human progress ( [[#Costanza--2016|Costanza et al. 2016]] ; [[#Fotis--2018|Fotis and Polemis 2018]] ), relevant for all countries even if different groups of nations experience the challenge of sustainability in different ways.

Much like sustainable development, concepts like low-carbon development ( [[#Mulugetta--2010|Mulugetta and Urban 2010]] ; [[#Yuan--2011|Yuan et al. 2011]] ; [[#Wang--2017|Wang et al. 2017]] ; [[#Tian--2019|Tian et al. 2019]] ), climate-compatible development (CCD) ( [[#Mitchell--2010|Mitchell and Maxwell 2010]] ; [[#Tompkins--2013|Tompkins et al. 2013]] ; [[#Stringer--2014|Stringer et al. 2014]] ; [[#Bickersteth--2017|Bickersteth et al. 2017]] ) and more recently climate-resilient development (CRD) ( [[#Fankhauser--2016|Fankhauser and McDermott 2016]] ; [[#Henly-Shepard--2018|Henly-Shepard et al. 2018]] ; [[#IPCC--2018b|IPCC 2018b]] ) have all emerged as ideas, tools and frameworks, intended to bring together the goals of climate mitigation and the SDGs, as well as development more broadly. Figure 1.5 suggests that the prospects for realising a climate-resilient and equitable world are enhanced by a process of transformation and development trajectories that seek to limit global warming while also achieving the SDGs. The SDGs represent medium-term goals, and long-term sustainability requires continued effort to keep the world along a climate-resilient development path. A key feature of development or transformation pathways that achieve a climate-resilient world is that they maximise the synergies and minimise the trade-offs between climate mitigation and other sustainable development goals ( [[#Klausbruckner--2016|Klausbruckner et al. 2016]] ; [[#Thornton--2017|Thornton and Comberti 2017]] ; [[#Wüstemann--2017|Wüstemann et al. 2017]] ; [[#Dagnachew--2018|Dagnachew et al. 2018]] ; [[#Fuso%20Nerini--2018|Fuso Nerini et al. 2018]] ; [[#Mainali--2018|Mainali et al. 2018]] ). Crucially, the nature of trade-offs and timing of related decisions will vary across countries depending on circumstances including the level of development, capability and access to resources (Cross-Chapter Box 5, Shifting Development Paths to Increase Sustainability, in Chapter 4).

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'''Figure 1.5 | A climate-resilient and equitable world requires limiting global warming while achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).''' Source: [[#IPCC--2018b|IPCC (2018b)]] .

Other concepts such as ‘Doughnut Economics’ ( [[#Raworth--2018|Raworth 2018]] ), ecological modernisation, and mainstreaming are also used to convey ideals of development pathways that take sustainability, climate mitigation, and environmental limits seriously ( [[#Dale--2015a|Dale et al. 2015a]] ). Mainstreaming focuses on incorporating climate change into national development activities, such as the building of infrastructure ( [[#Wamsler--2016|Wamsler and Pauleit 2016]] ; [[#Runhaar--2018|Runhaar et al. 2018]] ). The ‘green economy’ and green growth – growth without undermining ecological systems, partly by gaining economic value from cleaner technologies and systems and is inclusive and equitable in its outcomes – has gained popularity in both developed and developing countries as an approach for harnessing economic growth to address environmental issues ( [[#Bina--2013|Bina 2013]] ; [[#Georgeson--2017|Georgeson et al. 2017]] ; [[#Capasso--2019|Capasso et al. 2019]] ; [[#Song--2020|Song et al. 2020]] ; [[#Hao--2021|Hao et al. 2021]] ). However, critics argue that green economy ultimately emphasises economic growth to the detriment of other important aspects of human welfare such as social justice ( [[#Death--2014|Death 2014]] ; [[#Adelman--2015|Adelman 2015]] ; [[#Kamuti--2015|Kamuti 2015]] ), and challenge the central idea that it is possible to decouple economic activity and growth (measured as GDP increment) from increasing use of biophysical resources (raw materials, energy) ( [[#Jackson--2019|Jackson and Victor 2019]] ; [[#Parrique--2019|Parrique et al. 2019]] ; [[#Haberl--2020|Haberl et al. 2020]] ; [[#Hickel--2020|Hickel and Kallis 2020]] ; [[#Vadén--2020|Vadén et al. 2020]] ).

Literature on degrowth, post growth, and post development questions the sustainability and imperative of more growth especially in already industrialised countries and argues that prosperity and the ‘Good Life’ are not immutably tied to economic growth ( [[#Asara--2015|Asara et al. 2015]] ; [[#Escobar--2015|Escobar 2015]] ; [[#Latouche--2018|Latouche 2018]] ; [[#Kallis--2019|Kallis 2019]] ) ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.2.1|Section 5.2.1]] ). The concept of Just Transition also stresses the need to integrate justice concerns so as to not impose hardship on already marginalised populations within and between countries ( [[#Evans--2016|Evans and Phelan 2016]] ; [[#Goddard--2018|Goddard and Farrelly 2018]] ; [[#Heffron--2018|Heffron and McCauley 2018]] ; [[#Smith--2018|Smith, Jackie and Patterson 2018]] ; [[#McCauley--2018|McCauley and Heffron 2018]] ) ( [[#1.7.2|Section 1.7.2]] ). The key insight is that pursuing climate goals in the context of sustainable development requires holistic thinking including on how to measure well-being, serious consideration of the notion of ecological limits, at least some level of decoupling and certainly choices and decision-making approaches that exploit and maximise the synergy and minimise the trade-off between climate mitigation and other sustainable development goals. It also requires consideration of equity and justice within and between countries. However, ideas of a synergistic relationship between development and climate mitigation can sometimes offer limited practical guidelines for reconciling the tensions that are often present in practical policymaking ( [[#Ferguson--2014|Ferguson et al. 2014]] ; [[#Dale--2015b|Dale et al. 2015b]] ; [[#Kasztelan--2017|Kasztelan 2017]] ; [[#Kotzé--2018|Kotzé 2018]] ).

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=== 1.6.3 Climate Mitigation, Equity and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ===

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Climate action can be conceptualised as both a stand-alone and cross-cutting issue in the 2030 SDGs ( [[#Makomere--2018|Makomere and Liti Mbeva 2018]] ), given that several of the other goals such as ending poverty (SDG 1), zero hunger (SDG 2), good health and well-being (SDG 3), and affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), among many others, are related to climate change (Figure 3.39).

In addition to galvanising global collective action, the SDGs provide concrete themes, targets and indicators for measuring human progress to sustainability (Kanie and Biermann 2017). The SDGs also provide a basis for exploring the synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development and climate change mitigation ( [[#Pradhan--2017|Pradhan et al. 2017]] ; [[#Fuso%20Nerini--2018|Fuso Nerini et al. 2018]] ; [[#Mainali--2018|Mainali et al. 2018]] ; [[#Makomere--2018|Makomere and Liti Mbeva 2018]] ). Progress to date ( [[#Sachs--2016|Sachs et al. 2016]] ) shows fulfilling SDGs is a challenge for all groups of countries – developed and developing – even though the challenge differs between countries and regions ( [[#Pradhan--2017|Pradhan et al. 2017]] ).

Historically, the industrialisation associated with economic development has involved a strong relationship with GHG emissions ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.2.1|Section 5.2.1]] ). Figure 1.6 shows per-capita GHG emissions on the vertical axis and Historical Index of Human Development (HIHD) levels ( [[#Prados%20de%20la%20Escosura--2015|Prados de la Escosura 2015]] ) on the horizontal axis. [[#footnote-002|7]] The grey line shows historic global average GHG emissions per capita and levels of human development over time, from 1870 to 2014. The current positions of different regions are shown by bubbles, with sizes representing total GHG emissions. Figure 1.6 also shows the estimated position of the SDGs zone for the year 2030, and a ‘sustainable development corridor’ as countries reach towards higher HDI and lower emissions. To fulfil the SDGs, including SDG 13 (climate action), the historic relationship needs to change.

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'''Figure 1.6 | Sustainable development pathways towards fulfilling the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).''' The graph shows global average per-capita GHG emissions (vertical axis) and relative ‘Historic Index of Human Development’ (HIHD) levels (horizontal) have increased globally since the industrial revolution (grey line). The bubbles on the graph show regional per-capita GHG emissions and human development levels in the year 2015, illustrating large disparities. Pathways towards fulfilling the Paris Agreement (and SDG 13) involve global average per-capita GHG emissions below about 5 tCO 2 -eq by 2030. Likewise, to fulfil SDGs 3, 4 and 8, HIHD levels (see footnote 7) need to be at least 0.5 or greater. This suggests a ‘sustainable development zone’ for year 2030 (in pale brown); the in-figure text also suggests a ‘sustainable development corridor’, where countries limit per-capita GHG emissions while improving levels of human development over time. The emphasis of pathways into the sustainable development zone differ (dashed brown arrows), but in each case transformations are needed in how human development is attained while limiting GHG emissions.

Thetop of the SDG zone is situated around the global per-capita GHG emissions level of 5 tCO 2 -eq required for the world to be path towards fulfilling the Paris Agreement. [[#footnote-001|8]] The horizontal position of the SDG zone is estimated based on the HIHD levels ( [[#Prados%20de%20la%20Escosura--2015|Prados de la Escosura 2015]] ) of countries that have been shown to either have achieved, or have some challenges, when it comes to SDG 3, SDG 4 and SDG 8 ( [[#Sachs--2016|Sachs et al. 2016]] ), as these SDGs are related to the constituent parts of the HIHD. Beyond 2030, the sustainable development corridor allows for increasing levels of human development while lowering per-capita GHG emissions.

Figure 1.6 shows that at present, regions with HIHD levels of around 0.5 all have emissions at or above about 5 tCO 2 -eq per capita (even more so on a consumption footprint basis; see Figure 1.1c,d), but there are wide variations within this. Indeed, there are regions with HIHD levels above 0.8 which have GHG per-capita emissions lower than several with HIHD levels of around 0.5. The mitigation challenge involves countries at many different stages of development seeking paths towards higher welfare with low emissions.

From Figure 1.6, there are two distinct dimensions to sustainable development pathways for fulfilling the SDGs. In terms of per-capita GHG emissions (the vertical), some regions have such low levels that they could increase and still be below the global average required in 2030 for the world to be on path to fulfil the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, other regions with high per-capita GHG emissions would require a rapid transformation in technologies and practices. It is against this background that [[#Dubash--2019|Dubash (2019)]] emphasises placing the need for urgent action on climate change in the context of domestic political priorities and the institutions within which national frameworks are crystallised.

Concerns over equity in the context of growing global inequality and very tight remaining global carbon budgets have motivated an emphasis on equitable access to sustainable development ( [[#Peters--2015|Peters et al. 2015]] ; [[#Kartha--2018b|Kartha et al. 2018b]] ; [[#Matthews--2019|Matthews et al. 2019]] ; [[#van%20den%20Berg--2019|van den Berg et al. 2019]] ). This literature emphasises the need for less developed countries to have sufficient room for development while addressing climate change ( [[#Winkler--2013|Winkler et al. 2013]] ; [[#Pan--2014|Pan et al. 2014]] ; [[#Gajevic%20Sayegh--2017|Gajevic Sayegh 2017]] ; [[#Robinson--2018|Robinson and Shine 2018]] ; [[#Warlenius--2018|Warlenius 2018]] ). Meanwhile, many countries reliant on fossil fuels, related technologies and economic activities, are eager to ensure tax revenues are maintained, workers and industries have income and justice is embedded in the economic transformations required to limit GHG emissions ( [[#Cronin--2021|Cronin et al. 2021]] ).

Correlation between CO 2 emission intensity, or absolute emission and gross domestic product growth, is not rigid, unambiguous and deterministic ( [[#Ojekunle--2015|Ojekunle et al. 2015]] ), but the extent to which SDGs and economic growth expectations can be fulfilled while decoupling GHG emissions remains a concern ( [[#Haberl--2020|Haberl et al. 2020]] ; [[#Hickel--2020|Hickel and Kallis 2020]] ). Below some thresholds of absolute poverty, more consumption is necessary for development to lead to well-being ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.2.1.1|Section 5.2.1.1]] ), which may not be the case at higher levels of consumption ( [[#Lamb--2017|Lamb and Steinberger 2017]] ; [[#Steinberger--2020|Steinberger et al. 2020]] ) ( [[#1.7.2|Section 1.7.2]] ).

In conclusion, achieving climate stabilisation in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty requires collective action and exploiting synergies between climate action and sustainable development, while minimising the impact of trade-offs ( [[#Najam--2005|Najam 2005]] ; [[#Okereke--2017|Okereke and Massaquoi 2017]] ; [[#Makomere--2018|Makomere and Liti Mbeva 2018]] ; [[#Dooley--2021|Dooley et al. 2021]] ). It also requires a focus on equity considerations to avoid climate-induced harm, as well as unfairness that can result from urgent actions to cut emissions ( [[#Pan--2014|Pan et al. 2014]] ; [[#Robiou%20du%20Pont--2017|Robiou du Pont et al. 2017]] ; [[#Kartha--2018a|Kartha et al. 2018a]] ). This is ever more important as the diminishing carbon budget has intensified debates on which countries should have the greatest claim to the ‘remaining space’ for emissions ( [[#Raupach--2014|Raupach et al. 2014]] ) or production ( [[#McGlade--2015|McGlade and Ekins 2015]] ), amplified by persistent concerns over the insufficiency of support for means of implementation, to support ambitious mitigation efforts ( [[#Pickering--2015|Pickering et al. 2015]] ; [[#Weikmans--2019|Weikmans and Roberts 2019]] ).

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