Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

=== Box 3.2 | Impact of COVID-19 on Long-term Emissions ===

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The reduction in CO 2 emissions of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 was estimated to be about 6% (Section 4.2.2.4 and Table 4.SM.2) lower than 2019 levels ( [[#Forster--2020|Forster et al. 2020]] ; [[#Friedlingstein--2020|Friedlingstein et al. 2020]] ; [[#Liu--2020c|Liu et al. 2020c]] ; [[#BP--2021|BP 2021]] ; [[#Crippa--2021|Crippa et al. 2021]] ; [[#IEA--2021|IEA 2021]] ; [[#Le%20Quéré--2021|Le Quéré et al. 2021]] ). Near-real-time monitoring estimates show a rebound in emissions levels, meaning 2021 emissions levels are expected to be higher than 2020 ( [[#Le%20Quéré--2021|Le Quéré et al. 2021]] ). The longer-term effects are uncertain but so far do not indicate a clear structural change for climate policy related to the pandemic. The increase in renewable shares in 2020 could stimulate a further transition, but slow economic growth can also slow down (renewable) energy investments. Also, lifestyle changes during the crisis can still develop in different directions (working from home, but maybe also living further away from work). Without a major intervention, most long-term scenarios project that emissions will start to follow a similar pathway as earlier projections (although at a reduced level) ( [[#IEA--2020b|IEA 2020b]] ; [[#Kikstra--2021a|Kikstra et al. 2021a]] ; [[#Rochedo--2021|Rochedo et al. 2021]] ). If emissions reductions are limited to only a short time, the adjustment of pathways will lead to negligible outcomes in the order of 0.01K ( [[#Forster--2020|Forster et al. 2020]] ; [[#Jones--2021|Jones et al. 2021]] ). At the same time, however, the large amount of investments pledged in the recovery packages could provide a unique opportunity to determine the long-term development of infrastructure, energy systems and land use ( [[#Andrijevic--2020b|Andrijevic et al. 2020b]] ; [[#Hepburn--2020|Hepburn et al. 2020]] ; [[#Pianta--2021|Pianta et al. 2021]] ). Near-term alternative recovery pathways have been shown to have the potential to influence carbon-price pathways, and energy investments and electrification requirements under stringent mitigation targets ( [[#Bertram--2021|Bertram et al. 2021]] ; [[#Kikstra--2021a|Kikstra et al. 2021a]] ; [[#Pollitt--2021|Pollitt et al. 2021]] ; [[#Rochedo--2021|Rochedo et al. 2021]] ; Shan et al. 202). Most studies suggest a noticeable reduction in 2030 emissions. However, much further reductions would be needed to reach the emission levels consistent with mitigation scenarios that limit warming to 2°C (&gt;67%) or lower (see Chapter 4). At the moment, the share of investments in greenhouse gas reduction is relatively small in most recovery packages, and no structural shifts for climate policies are observed linked to the pandemic. Finally, most of the scenarios analysed in this Chapter do not include the 2020 emissions reduction related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The effect of the pandemic on the pathways will likely be very small. The assessment of climate mitigation pathways in this chapter should be interpreted as being almost exclusively based on the assumption of a fast recovery with limited persistent effects on emissions or structural changes.

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