Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.2.2.6 Impacts on smallholder farming systems ====

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New work has developed farming system approaches that take into account both biophysical and economic processes affected by climate change and multiple activities. Farm households in the developing world often rely on a complex mix of crops, livestock, aquaculture, and non-agricultural activities for their livelihoods (Rosenzweig and Hillel 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r359|359]]</sup> ; Antle et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r360|360]]</sup> ). Across the world, smallholder farmers are considered to be disproportionately vulnerable to climate change because changes in temperature, rainfall and the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events directly affect their crop and animal productivity as well as their household’s food security, income and well-being (Vignola et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r361|361]]</sup> ; Harvey et al. 2014b <sup>[[#fn:r362|362]]</sup> ). For example, smallholder farmers in the Philippines, whose survival and livelihood largely depend on the environment, constantly face risks and bear the impacts of the changing climate (Peria et al. 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r363|363]]</sup> ).

Smallholder farming systems have been recognised as highly vulnerable to climate change (Morton, 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r364|364]]</sup> ) because they are highly dependent on agriculture and livestock for their livelihood ( ''high confidence'' ) (Dasgupta et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r365|365]]</sup> ). In Zimbabwe, farmers were found vulnerable due to their marginal location, low levels of technology, and lack of other essential farming resources. Farmers observed high frequency and severity of drought; excessive precipitation; drying of rivers, dams and wells; and changes in timing and pattern of seasons as evidence of climate change, and indicated that prolonged wet, hot, and dry weather conditions resulted in crop damage, death of livestock, soil erosion, bush fires, poor plant germination, pests, lower incomes, and deterioration of infrastructure (Mutekwa 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r366|366]]</sup> ).

In Madagascar, Harvey et al. (2014b) <sup>[[#fn:r367|367]]</sup> surveyed 600 small farmers and found that chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets increased Malagasy farmers’ vulnerability to any shocks to their agricultural system, particularly extreme events. In Chitwan, Nepal, occurrence of extreme events and increased variability in temperature has increased the vulnerability of crops to biotic and abiotic stresses and altered the timing of agricultural operations; thereby affecting crop production (Paudel et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r368|368]]</sup> ). In Lesotho, a study on subsistence farming found that food crops were the most vulnerable to weather, followed by soil and livestock. Climate variables of major concern were hail, drought and dry spells which reduced crop yields. In the Peruvian Altiplano, Sietz et al. (2012) <sup>[[#fn:r369|369]]</sup> evaluated smallholders’ vulnerability to weather extremes with regard to food security and found that resource scarcity (livestock, land area), diversification of activities (lack of alternative income, education deprivation) and income restrictions (harvest failure risk) shaped the vulnerability of smallholders. See Section 5.2.2.2 for observed impacts on smallholder pastoral systems.

'''Projected impacts''' . By including regional economic models, integrated methods take into account the potential for yield declines to raise prices and thus livelihoods (up to a certain point) in some climate change scenarios. Regional economic models of farming systems can be used to examine the potential for switching to other crops and livestock, as well as the role that non-farm income can play in adaptation (Valdivia et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r370|370]]</sup> ; Antle et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r371|371]]</sup> ). On the other hand, lost income for smallholders from climate change-related declines (for example, in coffee production), can decrease their food security (Hannah et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r372|372]]</sup> ).

Farming system methods developed by AgMIP (Rosenzweig et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r373|373]]</sup> ) have been used in regional integrated assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa (Kihara et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r374|374]]</sup> ), West Africa (Adiku et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r375|375]]</sup> ); East Africa (Rao et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r376|376]]</sup> ), South Africa (Beletse et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r377|377]]</sup> ), Zimbabwe (Masikati et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r378|378]]</sup> ), South Asia (McDermid et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r379|379]]</sup> ), Pakistan (Ahmad et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r380|380]]</sup> ), the Indo-Gangetic Basin (Subash et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r381|381]]</sup> ), Tamil Nadu (Ponnusamy et al. 2015) and Sri Lanka (Zubair et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r382|382]]</sup> ). The assessments found that climate change adds pressure to smallholder farmers across Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, with winners and losers within each area studied. Temperatures are expected to increase in all locations, and rainfall decreases are projected for the western portion of West Africa and southern Africa, while increases in rainfall are projected for eastern West Africa and all studied regions of South Asia. The studies project that climate change will lead to yield decreases in most study regions except South India and areas in central Kenya, as detrimental temperature effects overcome the positive effects of CO <sub>2</sub> .

These studies use AgMIP representative agricultural pathways (RAPs) as a way to involve stakeholders in regional planning and climate resilience (Valdivia et al. 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r1427|1427]]</sup> . RAPs are consistent with and complement the RCP/SSP approaches for use in agricultural model intercomparisons, improvement, and impact assessments.

New methods have been developed for improving analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation options for the livestock component of smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe (Descheemaeker et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r383|383]]</sup> ). These methods utilised disaggregated climate scenarios, as well as differentiating farms with larger stocking rates compared to less densely stocked farms. By disaggregating climate scenarios, impacts, and smallholder farmer attributes, such assessments can more effectively inform decision-making towards climate change adaptation.

In Central Asia, a study using the bio-economic farm model (BEFM) found large differences in projected climate change impact ranging from positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in contrast to negative impacts in small-scale farms (Bobojonov and Aw-Hassan 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r384|384]]</sup> ). Negative impacts may be exacerbated if irrigation water availability declines due to climate change and increased water demand in upstream regions. In Iran, changes in rainfall and water endowments are projected to significantly impact crop yield and water requirements, as well as income and welfare of farm families (Karimi et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r385|385]]</sup> ).

Climate change impacts on food, feed and cash crops other than cereals, often grown in smallholder systems or family farms are less often studied, although impacts can be substantial. For example, areas suitable for growing coffee are expected to decrease by 21% in Ethiopia with global warming of 2.4°C (Moat et al. 2017) and more than 90% in Nicaragua (Läderach et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r386|386]]</sup> ) with 2.2°C local temperature increase.

Climate change can modify the relationship between crops and livestock in the landscape, affecting mixed crop-livestock systems in many places. Where crop production will become marginal, livestock may provide an alternative to cropping. Such transitions could occur in up to 3% of the total area of Africa, largely as a result of increases in the probability of season failure in the drier mixed crop–livestock systems of the continent (Thornton et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r387|387]]</sup> ).

In Mexico, subsistence agriculture is expected to be the most vulnerable to climate change, due to its intermittent production and reliance on maize and beans (Monterroso et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r388|388]]</sup> ). Overall, a decrease in suitability and yield is expected in Mexico and Central America for beans, coffee, maize, plantain and rice (Donatti et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r389|389]]</sup> ). Municipalities with a high proportional area under subsistence crops in Central America tend to have less resources to promote innovation and action for adaptation (Bouroncle et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r390|390]]</sup> ).

In summary, smallholder farmers are especially vulnerable to climate change because their livelihoods often depend primarily on agriculture. Further, smallholder farmers often suffer from chronic food insecurity ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate change is projected to exacerbate risks of pests and diseases and extreme weather events in smallholder farming systems.

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