Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-10 (section)

===== 10.4.2.2.3 Wildfires =====

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Under regional projections for North Asia, warmer climate will increase forest fire severity by the late 21st century ( ''medium confidence'' ). For the southern taiga in Tuva Republic, Central Siberia, in a warmer climate, both the annual area burned and fire intensity will increase by 2100. For the central taiga in the Irkutsk region, the annual area burned as well as crown fire-to-ground fire ratiowill increase by the late 21st century compared with the historical (1960–1990) estimate. This moves forest composition towards greater contribution of hardwoods (e.g., ''Betula'' spp., ''Populus'' spp.) ( [[#Brazhnik--2017|Brazhnik et al., 2017]] ). This shifting was also proved by observations in northern Mongolia, where boreal forest fires ''likely'' promote the relative dominance of ''B. platyphylla'' and threaten the existence of the evergreen conifers, ''Picea obovata'' and ''Pinus sibirica'' ( [[#Otoda--2013|Otoda et al., 2013]] ). For Tuva Republic, warming ambient temperatures increase the potential evapotranspiration demands on vegetation, but if no concurrent increase in precipitation occurs, vegetation becomes stressed and either dies from temperature-based drought stress or more easily succumbs to insects, fire, pathogens or wind throw ( [[#Brazhnik--2017|Brazhnik et al., 2017]] ). Although [[#Torzhkov--2019|Torzhkov et al. (2019)]] also projected fire risk (FR) increase in Tuva Republic, they expect FR decrease in the Irkutsk region and Yakutia under RCP8.5, and FR decrease in major parts of Central and East Siberia under RCP4.5 for 2090–2099. This discrepancy is due to differences in models, climate projections, fire severity metrics and other assumptions. According to global projections, FR will increase in Central Asia, Russia, China and India under a range of scenarios ( [[#Sun--2019|Sun et al., 2019]] ).

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