Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Cross-Chapter-Paper-4 (section)

=== CCP4.4.6 Pathways for Sustainable Development ===

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Climate-resilient sustainable development pathways are trajectories that combine adaptation and mitigation to realise the goal of sustainable development through iterative, continually evolving socioecological processes (Chapters 1; 18; [[#Denton--2014|Denton et al., 2014]] ). Transformative adaptation can be promoted through social and political processes, identifying the enabling conditions and strategies that facilitate structural changes ( [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP, 2016]] ; [[#Ramieri--2018|Ramieri et al., 2018]] ; [[#EC--2020|EC, 2020]] ; [[#UNEP/MAP%20and%20Plan%20Bleu--2020|UNEP/MAP and Plan Bleu, 2020]] ). The main options include ongoing structural change in the renewable energy system in this region, the production of renewable biological resources, measures towards increased water irrigation efficiency, behavioural changes in multiple sectors and improved regional governance (Table CCP4.2; [[#Cramer--2018|Cramer et al., 2018]] ).

'''Table CCP4.2 |''' Transformative adaptation and mitigation options for climate-resilient sustainable development in the Mediterranean Basin.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Code'''

! '''Sector'''

! '''Transformative option'''

! '''References'''

|-
| T1

| Energy, transport and tourism

| National plans and regulations to decarbonise fuel sources and electricity grids on the supply side, for reducing energy demand and increasing efficiency and converting transport systems from fossil fuels to electricity.

| [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP (2016)]] ; Bastianin et al. (2017); EEA (2018a; 2018b; 2019); [[#OME--2018|OME (2018)]] ; [[#CMI%20and%20EC--2019|CMI and EC (2019)]] ; [[#Sachs--2019|Sachs et al. (2019)]] ; [[#EC--2020|EC (2020)]] ; Simionescu et al. (2020)

|-
| T2

| Energy

| Deployment of large-scale Mediterranean transboundary renewable energy infrastructures and interconnections. Transboundary energy market integration schemes.

| [[#EIB%20and%20IRENA--2015|EIB and IRENA (2015)]] ; [[#Tagliapietra--2018|Tagliapietra (2018)]] ; [[#CMI%20and%20EC--2019|CMI and EC (2019)]] ; Zappa et al. (2019); [[#CMI%20and%20EC--2020|CMI and]] [[#EC--2020|EC (2020)]]

|-
| T3

| Energy

| Definition of ‘Important Projects of Common European Interest’ pooling financial resources and funding large-scale innovation projects across borders in the Mediterranean. Green hydrogen projects in Mediterranean North Africa (especially Morocco) have already been suggested as strategic actions.

| CMI and EC (2019; 2020)

|-
| T4

| Energy – finance

| EU Renewable Energy Financing Mechanisms such as calls for proposals for new renewable energy projects, including joint projects with third Mediterranean countries, joint support schemes, innovative technology projects or other projects that contribute to the enabling framework of the Renewable Directive 2018/2001. The mechanism can provide resources from payments by Member States, EU funds (European Green Deal Investment Plan, the Sustainable Finance Strategy, the Just Transition Fund, Connecting Europe Facility) or private sector contributions.

| CMI and EC (2019; 2020)

|-
| T5

| Water

| Improving efficiency of irrigation practices, including changing surface water irrigation for other techniques, use of remote sensing in intensive agriculture, optimisation of irrigation practices and other approaches. The Mediterranean region could save 35% of water by implementing improved irrigation techniques.

| [[#Iglesias--2011|Iglesias et al. (2011)]] ; [[#Boari--2015|Boari et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Ćosić--2015|Ćosić et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Dhehibi--2015|Dhehibi et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Guilherme--2015|Guilherme et al. (2015)]] ; [[#Iglesias--2015|Iglesias and Garrote (2015)]] ; [[#Cantore--2016|Cantore et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Fader--2016|Fader et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Iglesias--2017|Iglesias et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Kang--2017|Kang et al. (2017)]] ; AbdAllah et al. (2018); Iglesias et al. (2018); [[#Malek--2018|Malek and Verburg (2018)]] ; [[#Vargas--2019|Vargas and Paneque (2019)]]

|-
| T6

| Water

| Improvement of water resource availability and quality. Desalinisation and co-generation of electricity and potable water in integrated Concentration Solar Power plants. Reduce climate impacts on nitrate and other pollutant concentrations through improved agriculture and fertilizer management.

| Abufayed and El-Ghuel (2001); [[#Elimelech--2011|Elimelech and Phillip (2011)]] ; Aguilera et al. (2015); [[#Papanicolas--2016|Papanicolas et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Bonanos--2017|Bonanos et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Cramer--2018|Cramer et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Jones--2019|Jones et al. (2019)]] ; [[#Lange--2019|Lange (2019)]]

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| T7

| Water

| Reduce/control water demand and use through efficiency management and/or modernisation in irrigation.

| Sanchis-Ibor et al. (2016); [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP (2016)]]

|-
| T8

| Water

| Water demand management. Behavioural shifts in consumption and diet choice. Diet type influences the amount of water needed to produce and process food. Food waste implies the waste of the water used in the production cycle.

| Blas et al. (2016; 2018); Gul et al. (2017)

|-
| T9

| Water

| Adaptation by increasing water trade in international markets (commodity markets).

| Antonelli et al. (2012); [[#Hoekstra--2012|Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2012)]] ; [[#Johansson--2016|Johansson et al. (2016)]] ; Lee et al. (2019)

|-
| T10

| Food and fisheries

| Changing diets, managing food demand and reducing food waste. Reductions in the demand for livestock products.

| [[#Bajželj--2014|Bajželj et al. (2014)]] ; [[#Havlík--2014|Havlík et al. (2014)]] ; [[#Tilman--2014|Tilman and Clark (2014)]] ; [[#Westhoek--2014|Westhoek et al. (2014)]] ; [[#Herrero--2016|Herrero et al. (2016)]] ; [[#van%20Sluisveld--2016|van Sluisveld et al. (2016)]]

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| T11

| Food and fisheries

| Shift to more sustainable fishery practices. Collaborative monitoring, research and managing knowledge platforms.

| [[#Bjørkan--2020|Bjørkan et al. (2020)]] ; [[#Raicevich--2020|Raicevich et al. (2020)]]

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| T12

| Human conflict, displacement, migration and security

| Implementation of more effective Mediterranean regional policies and institutional frameworks for human rights protection, management of transboundary human migration, resolution of political and armed conflicts, increased internal displacements and food security.

| [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP (2016)]]

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| T13

| Finance

| Enhanced Mediterranean transnational governance and financial bilateral and multilateral capacity. Increased finance for regional cooperation and development (above current levels, USD 8300 million yr -1 ).

| [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP (2016)]] ; [[#Midgley--2018|Midgley et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Fosse--2019|Fosse et al. (2019)]]

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| T14

| Coastal

| Nature-based solutions aiming at reducing future coastal risks by restoring a buffer zone in coastal areas (e.g., through managed realignment), leaving space for sediments and coastal ecosystems, thus reducing the hazard and exposure to coastal flooding and erosion.

| Pranzini et al. (2015)

|}

There also are risks for nonlinear climate change impacts in key socioeconomic and environmental processes, which could promote reactive changes and forced transformations (Table CCP4.3).

'''Table CCP4.3 |''' Nonlinear processes that could force reactive changes and social transformations for climate-resilient sustainable development in the Mediterranean Basin. Nonlinearity implies the absence of a straight-line relationship between the independent variable and the response variable. In other words, changes in the output do not change in direct proportion to changes in the independent variable and the form of the relationship is often described by applying nonlinear mathematical models. Gradual changes induced by climate warming in thermal exposure or rainfall availability can induce nonlinear effects on social and ecological response variables.

{| class="wikitable"
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! '''Code'''

! '''Sector'''

! '''Processes'''

! '''References'''

|-
| P1

| Agriculture and migration

| Adverse nonlinear impacts of temperature on agricultural productivity can induce nonlinear effect on human migration. The temperature–migration relationship is nonlinear and resembles the nonlinear temperature–yield relationship. These relationships affect mostly agriculture-dependent countries and especially people in those countries whose livelihoods depend on agriculture.

| [[#Reuveny--2007|Reuveny (2007)]] ; [[#Schlenker--2009|Schlenker and Roberts (2009)]] ; [[#Cai--2016|Cai et al. (2016)]]

|-
| P3

| All societal sectors

| The increase in climatic impacts and catastrophic events is associated with nonlinear changes in economic and social impacts.

| [[#Burke--2014|Burke et al. (2014)]] ; Burke et al. (2015); [[#Carleton--2016|Carleton and Hsiang (2016)]] ; [[#Hsiang--2017|Hsiang et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Prahl--2018|Prahl et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Coronese--2019|Coronese et al. (2019)]]

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| P4

| All economic sectors

| Nonlinear temperature effects on labour conditions.

| [[#Burke--2014|Burke et al. (2014)]] ; [[#Graff%20Zivin--2014|Graff Zivin and Neidell (2014)]] ; Burke et al. (2015); [[#Somanathan--2018|Somanathan et al. (2018)]]

|-
| P5

| All economic sectors

| Nonlinear temperature effects on GDP. Higher temperature may reduce GDP in Mediterranean agricultural countries more than non-agricultural countries. Extreme heat over 30°C significantly reduces the GDP of agricultural countries but not the non-agricultural ones. GDP is a main determinant of international migration. The nonlinear relationship between GDP and temperature in agricultural countries provides indirect evidence for the agricultural linkage between temperature and migration.

| Dell et al. (2012); Burke et al. (2014; 2015); [[#Cai--2016|Cai et al. (2016)]]

|-
| P6

| All societal sectors

| Nonlinear effects of temperature on human conflict.

| [[#Baylis--2015|Baylis (2015)]] ; [[#Burke--2018|Burke et al. (2018)]] ; [[#Koubi--2018|Koubi (2018)]] ; [[#Baylis--2020|Baylis (2020)]]

|-
| P7

| Food, health and demography

| In low-income areas of the Mediterranean Basin and sub-Saharan Africa regions higher poverty rates, malnutrition and elevated infant mortality are coupled with higher fertility, implying a higher rate of population growth that in turn can generate more poverty. These demographic cycles can in turn interact with climatic impacts and conflict-induced displacement and migration processes.

| [[#Vörösmarty--2000|Vörösmarty et al. (2000)]] ; Barrios et al. (2006); [[#Reuveny--2007|Reuveny (2007)]] ; Hsiang et al. (2013); Ghimire et al. (2015); [[#Brzoska--2016|Brzoska and]] [[#Fröhlich--2016|Fröhlich (2016)]] ; [[#Cai--2016|Cai et al. (2016)]] ; [[#Cattaneo--2016|Cattaneo and Peri (2016)]] ; [[#Grecequet--2017|Grecequet et al. (2017)]] ; [[#Waha--2017|Waha et al. (2017)]] ; [[#WFP--2017|WFP (2017)]] ; [[#Livi%20Bacci--2018|Livi Bacci (2018)]] ; [[#Raineri--2018|Raineri (2018)]] ; [[#Scott--2020|Scott et al. (2020)]]

|-
| P8

| Energy

| Nonlinear effects of increased temperatures on energy demand and supply. High temperatures provoke demand surges while straining supply and transmission.

| [[#Carleton--2016|Carleton and Hsiang (2016)]]

|-
| P9

| Industry

| Nonlinear effects of temperature on industrial production.

| [[#Hsiang--2015|Hsiang and Meng (2015)]]

|}

In the Mediterranean Basin, indicators for progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) show multiple directions of transformative change ( [[#Sachs--2019|Sachs et al., 2019]] ). In some sectors, such as energy, there are general positive trends in sustainability ( [[#UNEP/MAP--2016|UNEP/MAP, 2016]] ), but there also are significant imbalances between northern and southern shores of the basin for most SDGs. Over the coming decades the Mediterranean Basin will ''likely'' experience sustained growth in renewable energy investments, accompanied by a shift in regional geographical patterns of energy demand ( [[#OME--2018|OME, 2018]] ). However, future developmental pathways, solution space and feasible system transformations could be constrained by multiple factors for several SDGs, such as social conflicts, lack of regional governance, limited action capacity and financial constraints (Figure CCP4.9; Table CCP4.3).

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[[File:3f03e0230d2319de95c586e927579c8b IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_CCP4_009.png]]

'''Figure CCP4.9 |''' '''Differences in present-day SDG indicator values between northern (blue) and southern (gold) Mediterranean countries.''' Yellow-shaded areas indicate better indicator values for the SDG descriptor. Red-shaded areas indicate poor performance on SDG values. Details of calculations and indicators in Table SMCCP4.3.

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