Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Compound, cascading and transboundary risks ===

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'''TS.C.11 Compound, cascading risks and transboundary risks give rise to new and unexpected types of risks (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). They exacerbate existing stressors and constrain adaptation options (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). They are projected to become major threats for many areas, such as coastal cities (''' '''''medium''''' '''to''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Some compound and cascading impacts occur locally, some spread across sectors and socioeconomic and natural systems, while others can be driven by events in other regions, for instance through trade and flows of commodities and goods through supply chain linkages (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 1.3.1, 2.3, 2.5.5, 6.2, 4.4, 4.5.1, 11.5.1, Box 11.1, 13.10.3, Figure 14.10, 14.5.4, 11.5.1, 11.6, Box 11.7, Figure Box 11.1.2, Table 11.14, Box 14.5, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.3 CCP6.2.3] , CCB EXTREMES, CCB INTEREG }

'''TS.C.11.1 Escalating impacts of climate change on terrestrial, freshwater and marine life will further alter the biomass of animals (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''), the timing of seasonal ecological events (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and the geographic ranges of terrestrial, coastal and ocean taxa (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), disrupting life cycles (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''), food webs (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''') and ecological connectivity throughout the water column (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' For example, cascading effects on food webs have been reported in the Baltic due to detrimental oxygen levels ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.5 ECOSYSTEMS, Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 2.4.3, 2.4.5, 2.5.4, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 13.3.1, 13.4.1, 14.5.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.3.2 CCP5.3.2] , WGI AR6 2.3.4 }

'''TS.C.11.2 Climate hazards cause multiple impacts, interacting to compound risks to food security, nutrition and human health (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Compound risks to health and food systems (especially in tropical regions) are projected from simultaneous reductions in food production across crops, livestock and fisheries ( ''high confidence'' ), heat-related loss of labour productivity in agriculture ( ''high confidence'' ), increased heat-related mortality ( ''high confidence'' ), contamination of seafood ( ''high confidence'' ), malnutrition ( ''high confidence'' ) and flooding from sea level rise ( ''high confidence'' ). Malnourished populations will increase through direct impacts on food production with cascading impacts on food prices and household incomes, reducing access to safe and nutritious food ( ''high confidence'' ). Food safety will be undermined from increased food contamination for seafood with marine toxins from harmful algal blooms and chemical contaminants, worsening health risks ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 4.5.1, 5.2.2, 5.4.3, 5.8.1, 5.8.3, 5.11.1, 5.12, Figure 5.2, 5.12.4, Box 5.10, 7.3.1, 9.10.2, 9.8.2, 9.8.3, 14.5.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.3 CCP5.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.3 CCP6.2.3] , CCB ILLNESS }

'''TS.C.11.3 Compound hazards increasing with global warming include increased frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''), dangerous fire weather (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''') and floods (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''), resulting in increased and more complex risks to agriculture, water resources, human health, mortality, livelihoods, settlements and infrastructure.''' Extreme weather events result in cascading and compounding risks that affect health and are expected to increase with warming ( ''very high confidence'' ). Compound climate hazards can overwhelm adaptive capacity and substantially increase damage ( ''high confidence'' ); for example, heat and drought are projected to substantially reduce agricultural production, and although irrigation can reduce this risk, its feasibility is limited by drought. (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 4.2.5, 6.2.5, 7.1.3, 7.1.4,7.2.2, 7.2.1, 7.2.2, 7.2.3, 7.2.4, 7.3.1, 7.3.2, 7.3.3, 7.4.1, 7.4.5, 11.5.1, 11.8.1, Box 11.1, 12.4, 13.3.1, 13.10.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.4 CCP5.4.6] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.4.3 CCP5.4.3] , CCP 6, CCB COVID, CCB EXTREMES, CCB HEALTH, WGI AR6 11.8 }

'''TS.C.11.4 Interacting climatic and non-climatic drivers when coupled with coastal development and urbanisation are projected to lead to losses for coastal ecosystems and their services under all scenarios in the near to mid-term (''' '''''medium to high confidence''''' ''').''' The compound impacts of warming, acidification and sea level rise are projected to lead to losses for coastal ecosystems ( ''medium to high confidence'' ). Fewer habitats, less biodiversity, lower coastal protection ( ''medium confidence'' ) and decreased food and water security will result ( ''medium confidence'' ), reducing the habitability of some small islands ( ''high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 2.3, 2.5.5, 3.4.2, 3.5.2, 3.5.3, 3.5.5, 3.5.6, 3.6.3, 4.5.1, 5.13.6, 6.2, 6.2.6, 6.4.3, 11.3.2, 11.5.1, Box 11.6, 12.4, 12.5.2, 13.5.2, 13.10.2, Table 13.12, 15.3.3, 15.3.4, Box 15.5, 16.5.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.1 CCP1.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2.4 CCP1.2.4] , Box [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.1 CCP1.1] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.1 CCP1.1] , Figure [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.1 CCP1.1] , Figure [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP1.2 CCP1.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.2 CCP2.2] , CCP 2.2.5, CCB EXTREMES, CCB SLR }

'''TS.C.11.5 Observed human and economic losses have increased since AR5 for urban areas and human settlements arising from compound, cascading and systemic events (''' '''''medium evidence, high agreement''''' ''').''' Urban areas and their infrastructure are susceptible to both compounding and cascading risks arising from interactions between severe weather from climate change and increasing urbanisation ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Compound risks to key infrastructure in cities have increased from extreme weather ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Losses become systemic when they affect entire systems and can even jump from one system to another (e.g., drought impacting rural food production contributing to urban food insecurity) ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 6.2.6, 6.2.7, 6.4.3, Figure 6.2, 11.5.1, Box 11.1, 13.9.2, 13.5.2, 13.10.2, 13.10.3, 14.6.3, CCP2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.3.2 CCP5.3.2] , CWGB URBAN }

'''TS.C.11.6 Interconnectedness and globalisation establish pathways for the transmission of climate-related risks across sectors and borders, through trade, finance, food and ecosystems (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Flows of commodities and goods, as well as people, finance and innovation, can be driven or disrupted by distant climate change impacts on rural populations, transport networks and commodity speculation ( ''high confidence'' ). For example, Europe faces climate risks from outside the area due to global supply chain positioning and shared resources ( ''high confidence'' ). Climate risks in Europe also impact finance, food production and marine resources beyond Europe ( ''medium confidence'' ). (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 1.3.1, 5.13.3, 5.13.5, 6.2.4, 9.9, 13.9.2, 13.5.2, 13.9.2, 13.9.3, Box 14.5, CCB INTEREG, Figure CCB INTEREG.1 }

'''TS.C.11.7 Arctic communities and Indigenous Peoples face risks to economic activities (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''')''' '''as direct and cascading impacts of climate change continue to occur at a magnitude and pace unprecedented in recent history and much faster than projected for other regions (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Impacts and risks include reduced access to and productivity of future fisheries, regional and global food and nutritional security ( ''high confidence'' ), local livelihoods, health and well-being ( ''high confidence'' ) and loss to sociocultural assets, including heritage sites in all Arctic regions ( ''very high confidence'' ). (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { Box 7.1, 13.8.1, Box 13.2, Figure 13.14, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.1 CCP6.2.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.2 CCP6.2.2] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.3 CCP6.2.3] , CCP.6.2.4, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2.5 CCP6.2.5] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.3.1 CCP6.3.1] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.1 CCP6.1] , Table [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP6.2 CCP6.2] , Table CCP6.6 }

'''TS.C.11.8 Indigenous Peoples, traditional communities, smallholder farmers, urban poor, children and elderly in Amazonia are burdened by cascading impacts and risks from the compound effects of climate and land use change on forest fires in the region (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Deforestation, fires and urbanisation have increased the exposure of Indigenous Peoples to respiratory problems, air pollution and diseases ( ''high confidence'' ). Amazonian forest fires are transboundary and increase systemic losses of wild crops, infrastructure and livelihoods, requiring a landscape governance approach ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). (Figure TS.10 COMPLEX RISK) { 2.4.3, 2.4.4, 2.5.3, 8.2.1, 8.4.5, Box 8.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.2.3 CCP7.2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.3 CCP7.3] }

'''TS.C.11.9 Population groups in most vulnerable and exposed regions to compound and cascading risks have the most urgent need for improved adaptive capacity (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Regions characterised by compound challenges of high levels of poverty, a significant number of people without access to basic services, such as water and sanitation and wealth and gender inequalities, and governance challenges are among the most vulnerable regions and are particularly located in East, Central and West Africa, South Asia, Micronesia and Melanesia and in Central America ( ''high confidence'' ). { 8.3, 8.4, Box 8.6, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.3.2 CCP5.3.2] }

'''TS.C.11.10 Emergent risks arise from responses to climate change, including maladaptation and unintended side effects of mitigation, including in the case of afforestation and hydropower (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Solar radiation modification (SRM) approaches attempt to offset warming and ameliorate some climate risks but introduce a range of new risks to people and ecosystems, which are not well understood ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.3.1, 3.6.3, 5.13.6, CWGB SRM }

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