Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-3 (section)

==== 3.4.2.1 Impacts on poverty ====

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Climate change has a high potential to contribute to poverty particularly through the risks coming from extreme weather events (Olsson et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r657|657]]</sup> ). However, the evidence rigourously attributing changes in observed poverty to climate change impacts is currently not available. On the other hand, most of the research on links between poverty and desertification (or more broadly, land degradation) focused on whether or not poverty is a cause of land degradation (Gerber et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r658|658]]</sup> ; Vu et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r659|659]]</sup> ; Way 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r660|660]]</sup> ) (Section 4.7.1). The literature measuring the extent to which desertification contributed to poverty globally is lacking: the related literature remains qualitative or correlational (Barbier and Hochard 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r661|661]]</sup> ). At the local level, on the other hand, there is ''limited evidence'' and ''high agreement'' that desertification increased multidimensional poverty. For example, Diao and Sarpong (2011) <sup>[[#fn:r662|662]]</sup> estimated that land degradation lowered agricultural incomes in Ghana by 4.2 billion USD between 2006 and 2015, increasing the national poverty rate by 5.4% in 2015. Land degradation increased the probability of households becoming poor by 35% in Malawi and 48% in Tanzania (Kirui 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r663|663]]</sup> ). Desertification in China was found to have resulted in substantial losses in income, food production and jobs (Jiang et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r664|664]]</sup> ). On the other hand, Ge et al. (2015) <sup>[[#fn:r665|665]]</sup> indicated that desertification was positively associated with growing incomes in Inner Mongolia in China in the short run since no costs were incurred for SLM, while in the long run higher incomes allowed allocation of more investments to reduce desertification. This relationship corresponds to the Environmental Kuznets Curve, which posits that environmental degradation initially rises and subsequently falls with rising income (e.g., Stern 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r666|666]]</sup> ). There is ''limited evidence'' on the validity of this hypothesis regarding desertification.

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