Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.3.1.1 Observed Impacts on Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems ====

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European land and freshwater ecosystems (Figure 13.7) are already strongly impacted by a range of anthropogenic drivers ( ''very high confidence'' ), particularly habitats at the southern and northern margins, along the coasts, up mountains and in freshwater systems (Cross-Chapter Paper 1). Interacting with climate change are non-climatic hazards, such as habitat loss and fragmentation, overexploitation, water abstraction, nutrient enrichment and pollution, all of which reduce resilience of biotas and ecosystems ( ''very high confidence'' ). Peatlands in NEU and EEU and other historically important cultural landscapes in Europe are overexploited for forestry, agriculture and peat mining ( [[#Page--2016|Page and Baird, 2016]] ; [[#Tanneberger--2017|Tanneberger et al., 2017]] ; [[#Ojanen--2020|Ojanen and Minkkinen, 2020]] ). Inland wetland RAMSAR convention sites in Europe, which constitute 47% of the global sites have lost area in WCE and gained in SEU from 1980 to 2014 ( [[#Xi--2021|Xi et al., 2021]] ). Forests in WCE were impacted by the extreme heat and drought event of 2018, with effects lasting into 2019 ( [[#Schuldt--2020|Schuldt et al., 2020]] ) and losses in conifer timber sales in Europe ( [[#Hlásny--2021|Hlásny et al., 2021]] ).

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[[File:45e2f6156e97f9beffa26526d7c5e752 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_007.png]]

'''Figure 13.7 |''' '''Köppen-Geiger climate classification and biodiversity hotspots in Europe.''' Boundaries are of the

'''(a)''' Northern European (NEU),

'''(b)''' Western–Central European (WCE),

'''(c)''' Southern European (SEU) and

'''(d)''' Eastern European (EEU) regions for 1985–2014 (left) and 2076–2100 (right, A1FI scenario, ~4°C GWL), based on [[#Rubel--2010|Rubel and Kottek (2010)]] .

Extirpation (e.g., local losses of species) have been observed in response to climate change in Europe ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Wiens--2016|Wiens, 2016]] ; [[#EEA--2017a|EEA, 2017a]] ; [[#Soroye--2020|Soroye et al., 2020]] ). Strong climate-induced declines have been detected in thermosensitive taxa ( [[#Hellmann--2016|Hellmann et al., 2016]] ), including many freshwater groups, insects ( [[#Habel--2019|Habel et al., 2019]] ; [[#Harris--2019|Harris et al., 2019]] ; [[#Seibold--2019|Seibold et al., 2019]] ; [[#Soroye--2020|Soroye et al., 2020]] ), amphibians, reptiles ( [[#Falaschi--2019|Falaschi et al., 2019]] ), birds ( [[#Lehikoinen--2019|Lehikoinen et al., 2019]] ) and fishes ( [[#Myers--2017a|Myers et al., 2017a]] ; [[#Jarić--2019|Jarić et al., 2019]] ). The loss of native species, especially specialised taxa, is changing biodiversity; however, overall biodiversity could remain stable because losses may be offset by range shifts of native, and the establishment of non-native, species ( [[#Dornelas--2014|Dornelas et al., 2014]] ; [[#McGill--2015|McGill et al., 2015]] ; [[#Hillebrand--2018|Hillebrand et al., 2018]] ; [[#Outhwaite--2020|Outhwaite et al., 2020]] ).

Range shifts are leading to northward and upwards expansions of warm-adapted taxa ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.8; Chapter 2). These shifts have altered species living in the boreal and alpine tundra ( [[#Elmhagen--2015|Elmhagen et al., 2015]] ; [[#Post--2019|Post et al., 2019]] ; [[#Mekonnen--2021|Mekonnen et al., 2021]] ) and are greening the high Arctic tundra with shrubs and trees ( [[#Myers-Smith--2020|Myers-Smith et al., 2020]] ). Plants display more stable distributions at low than at higher mountain altitudes ( [[#Rumpf--2018|Rumpf et al., 2018]] ). Microclimatic variability in some locations can buffer warming impacts ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Suggitt--2018|Suggitt et al., 2018]] ; [[#Zellweger--2020|Zellweger et al., 2020]] ; [[#Carnicer--2021|Carnicer et al., 2021]] ). Northward shifts of tree species distributions is documented in north-western Europe ( [[#Bryn--2018|Bryn and Potthoff, 2018]] ; [[#Mamet--2019|Mamet et al., 2019]] ) but not consistently detected ( [[#Cudlín--2017|Cudlín et al., 2017]] ; [[#Vilà-Cabrera--2019|Vilà-Cabrera et al., 2019]] ).

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[[File:46e6c883f7284e04944163e568e77d6c IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_008.png]]

'''Figure 13.8 |''' '''Summary of major impacts on, and risks for, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in Europe for 1''' '''.''' '''5°C and 3°C GWL''' (Table SM13.2)

The timing of many processes, including spring leaf unfolding, autumn senescence and flight rhythms, have changed in response to changes in seasonal temperatures, water and light availability ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Chapter 2; [[#Szabó--2016|Szabó et al., 2016]] ; [[#Asse--2018|Asse et al., 2018]] ; [[#Peaucelle--2019|Peaucelle et al., 2019]] ; [[#Menzel--2020|Menzel et al., 2020]] ; [[#Rosbakh--2021|Rosbakh et al., 2021]] ), resulting, for example, in earlier arrival dates for many birds and butterflies ( [[#Karlsson--2014|Karlsson, 2014]] ; [[#Bobretsov--2019|Bobretsov et al., 2019]] ; [[#Lehikoinen--2019|Lehikoinen et al., 2019]] ). The largest increase in length of growing season in plants has been detected in WCE, NEU and EEU, but shortening in parts of SEU driven by later senescence ( [[#Garonna--2014|Garonna et al., 2014]] ), increasing population growth for butterflies and moths ( [[#Macgregor--2019|Macgregor et al., 2019]] ) and birds ( [[#Halupka--2017|Halupka and Halupka, 2017]] ), and residence time for migrant birds ( [[#Newson--2016|Newson et al., 2016]] ).

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