Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

==== 15.3.4.4 Fisheries and Agriculture ====

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Fisheries provide small islands with opportunities for economic development, revenues, food security and livelihoods ( [[#Bell--2018|Bell et al., 2018]] ). Ten Pacific Island countries and territories derive between 5% and &gt;90% of all government revenue (except grants) from access fees paid by industrial tuna-fishing fleets, mainly from distant-water fishing nations ( [[#Bell--2018|Bell et al., 2018]] ; [[#SPC--2019|SPC, 2019]] ). Under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the total biomass of three tuna species in the waters of 10 Pacific SIDS could decline by an average of 13% (range = −5–−20%) due to a greater proportion of fish occurring in the high seas ( [[#Bell--2021|Bell et al., 2021]] ), while projected increases have been anticipated for Ascension Island and Saint Helena in the South Atlantic ( [[#Townhill--2021|Townhill et al., 2021]] ). Additionally, seafood plays an important role in achieving food security in many islands. In the Pacific, fish protein is estimated to make up 50–90% of animal protein consumption in rural areas and 40–80% in urban areas ( [[#Bell--2009|Bell et al., 2009]] ; [[#Hanich--2018|Hanich et al., 2018]] ) with similar values reported for some Indian Ocean and Caribbean islands (e.g., Maldives, Antigua and Barbuda). It has been suggested that island nations may need to retain more of their tuna catch rather than to rely solely on coastal fisheries to achieve food security in the future (Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5; [[#Bell--2015|Bell et al., 2015]] ; [[#Bell--2018|Bell et al., 2018]] ). Furthermore, small island fisheries can be severely impacted by extreme events such as TCs, yet rapidly recovering pelagic fisheries can help to alleviate immediate food insecurity pressures in some circumstances, helping to build resilience ( [[#Pinnegar--2019|Pinnegar et al., 2019]] ).

Observed impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries in small islands include declines in reef-associated species due to coral bleaching or cyclone damage ( [[#Robinson--2019|Robinson et al., 2019]] ; [[#Magel--2020|Magel et al., 2020]] ), oceanic-scale shifts in the distribution of large pelagic fish and hence their fisheries ( [[#Erauskin-Extramiana--2019|Erauskin-Extramiana et al., 2019]] ), changes to the size structure or breeding behaviour of species (e.g., ( [[#Asch--2018|Asch et al., 2018]] ) (Sections 3.3.3.2 and 3.4.3.1)). Many studies of future fishery productivity in a changing climate suggest that yields will fall as a result of ocean productivity reductions, local species extinction and/or migration ( [[#Nurse--2011|Nurse, 2011]] ; [[#Asch--2018|Asch et al., 2018]] ; [[#Robinson--2019|Robinson et al., 2019]] ). Asch et al. (2018) provided future projections for biodiversity and the maximum catch potential of fisheries in Pacific Island countries and territories. These authors concluded that nine of 17 Pacific Island entities (Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Guam, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu) could experience ≥50% declines in maximum catch potential by 2100 relative to 1980–2000 under both an RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenario ( ''medium confidence'' ). In Wallis and Futuna, maximum catch potential was projected to increase slightly (around 10%) by 2050, later declining by the year 2100. Similar projections have now been provided for all countries worldwide, including Pacific, Caribbean, Atlantic, Mediterranean and Indian Ocean small islands ( [[#Cheung--2018|Cheung et al., 2018]] ). The small islands that show the largest anticipated decrease in the maximum catch potential of fisheries by the end of the century (according to an RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario) include the Federated States of Micronesia, Kiribati, Nauru, Palau, Tokelau, Tuvalu, São Tomé and Príncipe, whereas some other small islands such as Bermuda, Easter Island (Chile), and Pitcairn Islands (UK), might actually witness increases in fish catch potential ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Cheung--2018|Cheung et al., 2018]] ). [[#Monnereau--2017|Monnereau et al. (2017)]] showed that for the fisheries sector, small island states are generally more vulnerable to climate change impacts compared to continental least-developed countries or coastal states because of their increased reliance on fisheries, the exposure of coastal communities to potential climatic threats and their limited adaptive capacity.

Projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries pose serious threats to dependent human populations ( [[#Ren--2018|Ren et al., 2018]] ; [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2019|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019]] ), making the risk caused to livelihoods a key risk in small islands (KR7 in Figure 15.5). On small islands, despite biophysical commonalities (e.g., size and isolation), differences in economic status and level of dependence on agriculture and fisheries produce dynamic climate impacts ( [[#Balzan--2018|Balzan et al., 2018]] ). Climate change is impacting agricultural production in small islands through slow-onset stressors such as rising average temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, SLR and extreme events like TCs. For example, TC Pam, a Category 5 cyclone, devastated Vanuatu in 2015 and caused losses and damages to the agriculture sector valued at USD 56.5 million (64.1% of GDP) ( [[#Nalau--2017|Nalau et al., 2017]] ), and TC Winston in 2016 resulted in losses and damages in the agriculture sector in Fiji valued at USD 254.7 million ( [[#Iese--2020|Iese et al., 2020]] ). In 2017, total losses and damages associated with hurricane Maria (Category 5) amounted to 224% of Dominica’s 2016 GDP ( [[#Barclay--2019|Barclay et al., 2019]] ). Losses and damages in agriculture often led to people eating imported processed foods affecting their diet and nutrition ( [[#Haynes--2020|Haynes et al., 2020]] ). Small islands communities are also witnessing the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on agricultural systems ( [[#Hickey--2020|Hickey and Unwin, 2020]] ). However, the limited diversity of agriculture production and reduced household incomes are contributing to low diet diversity (Iese et al., 2021b). [[#Bell--2015|Bell and Taylor (2015)]] assessed the effects of climate change on specific sectors of agriculture in the Pacific islands region and found that, by 2090, staple food crops of taro, sweet potato and rice are expected to suffer from moderate to high impact. Among export crops, coffee is expected to sustain the most significant impact due largely to increased temperatures in the highland areas of Papua New Guinea—a high production area ( [[#Bell--2016|Bell et al., 2016]] ). Livestock is an important protein source in some small islands and is particularly vulnerable to changes in temperature through heat stress ( [[#Bell--2015|Bell and Taylor, 2015]] ; [[#Lallo--2018|Lallo et al., 2018]] ). With the concentration of island people along (often reef-fringed) coasts, there is a comparatively large dependence on nearshore marine foods and coastal agricultural systems ( [[#Ticktin--2018|Ticktin et al., 2018]] ).

In the Caribbean, additional warming by 0.2°–1.0°C could lead to a predominantly drier region (5–15% less rain than present-day), a greater occurrence of droughts ( [[#Taylor--2018|Taylor et al., 2018]] ) along with associated impacts on agricultural production and yield in the region ( [[#Gamble--2017|Gamble et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2019|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019]] ; [[#Nicolas--2020|Nicolas et al., 2020]] ). Crop suitability modelling on several commercially important crops grown in Jamaica found that even an increase of less than 1.5°C could result in a reduction in the range of crops that farmers may grow ( [[#Rhiney--2018|Rhiney et al., 2018]] ).

Sugar yield in Fiji could decline by 2–14% under projected scenarios ( [[#McGree--2020|McGree et al., 2020]] ). Farmers in some small islands have utilised Indigenous knowledge systems built on local ontology to sharpen their sensitivity to environmental conditions ( [[#Shah--2018|Shah et al., 2018]] ). However, projected climate change across the Pacific could undermine climate-sensitive agricultural livelihoods and exacerbate food insecurity challenges ( [[#McCubbin--2017|McCubbin et al., 2017]] ; [[#Campbell--2021|Campbell et al., 2021]] ).

Projected climate impacts on island agroecosystem services could accentuate a myriad of social and ecological risks ( [[#Campbell--2021|Campbell, 2021]] ). Without proactive farm management practices, the projected impacts of climate change on drought patterns is a major threat to cocoa pollination services ( [[#Arnold--2018|Arnold et al., 2018]] ). Many tropical island agroforestry crops are completely dependent on insect pollination and it is therefore important to understand the climatic drivers of changing conditions related to pollinator abundance. Coastal agroforestry systems in small Pacific islands are vital to national food security but native biodiversity is rapidly declining ( [[#Ticktin--2018|Ticktin et al., 2018]] ). Biodiversity loss from traditional agroecosystems is a major threat to food and livelihoods security in SIDS ( [[#UNEP--2014a|UNEP, 2014a]] ). Additionally, while coastal-lowland salinisation and more frequent flooding attributable to SLR have impacted coastal agriculture on some islands ( [[#Cruz--2017|Cruz and Andrade, 2017]] ; [[#Wairiu--2017|Wairiu, 2017]] ), stronger TCs can sometimes shock island terrestrial food production warranting reconfiguration ( [[#Mertz--2010|Mertz et al., 2010]] ; [[#Duvat--2016|Duvat et al., 2016]] ; [[#Chakrabarti--2017|Chakrabarti et al., 2017]] ). Calls to conserve associated environments and to make terrestrial food production on islands more resilient to climate-driven shocks underscore concern about future food security ( [[#Connell--2013|Connell, 2013]] ; [[#de%20Scally--2014|de Scally, 2014]] ). Implicit in the latter is reversing the decades-long loss of Indigenous knowledge about food production in many island societies and incorporating it into future strategies ( [[#Mercer--2014b|Mercer et al., 2014b]] ; [[#Janif--2016|Janif et al., 2016]] ).

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