Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-17 (section)

==== 17.2.2.5 Incremental and Transformational Adaptation for Managing Risk in the Context of Adaptation Limits ====

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With evidence on soft and hard limits being experienced in natural and human systems, including in terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems, coastal and island systems, agriculture, health systems, urban spaces and tourism (Table 16.5, 16.4.2, ''medium confidence'' ), transformation is also being considered to expand the adaptation space beyond soft limits and before hard limits are being reached. As a key area of advancement since AR5, this section assesses the relationship of residual risks, limits and incremental as well as transformational adaptation integrating the assessment of limits in [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-16#16.4|Section 16.4]] with [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-17 Chapter 17] adaptation and risk management assessment along a spectrum of adaptation change. [[#17.2.2.5|Section 17.2.2.5]] thus contributes to understanding in which systems and regions transformational adaptation is increasingly required and considered once incremental adjustments are exhausted in the context of soft and hard limits.

Assessing risk and limits requires in-depth analysis of the adaptability of human and natural systems under different warming and risk levels, also considering socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability drivers, informed by perspectives on what breaching limits means, especially if significant change and losses and damages occur (Sections 16.4, 8.4). Assessments differ between natural systems (where adaptation potential is often very limited; [[#Klein--2014|Klein et al., 2014]] ) and human systems where incremental and transformational adaptation can help to extend soft limits so that hard limits are not met or to buy time until hard limits are reached with higher levels of warming.

The assessment synthesises global and regional evidence across regional and thematic report chapters along a continuum from observed to projected impacts and risks, the spectrum of incremental and transformational adaptation, and finally any evidence on soft and hard limits. We present regional evidence for two types of salient natural and human systems and RKRs: RKR-B (risk to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems), where we assess risks from marine heatwaves to coral reefs; and RKR- E (risk of heat on human health as a human system). Both RKRs and systems are facing substantial (residual) risk, characterised by adaptation limits and sharing heatwaves as the hazard, for which climate change has been considered the major driver of increasing intensity and frequency ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] ). The assessment synthesises evidence on transformation as reported in the chapters as well as categorises identified adaptation options along an adaptation spectrum according to the criteria discussed in [[#17.2.2.4|Section 17.2.2.4]] , specifically whether adaptation leads to systems’ change or only change within a system is driven by multi-scale agency and considers equity impacts specifically.

Figure 17.6 organises global and regional findings for observed and projected health risks from heat (RKR-E) from chapters across the report and organises options according to findings on the potential for transformational change as presented in [[#17.2|Section 17.2]] and Table 17.3. The discussion shows that heat has become a significant health risk globally, incurring severe mortality and morbidity in all world regions with annual heat-related deaths estimated around 300,000 with millions affected ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.3.1|Section 9.3.1]] ). Evidence shows that adaptation and risk management can be effective in reducing (relative) risks in developed countries, with inconclusive evidence in low-middle-income states (Sections 9.2.4.1, 13.7.3, 13.6). In absolute terms, risk in terms of heat-related mortality and morbidity is projected to increase under medium and high heating scenarios in many regions, even with implemented adaptation. By 2050 (compared with 1961–1991 and for a mid-range emissions scenario), an excess of 94,000 deaths yr −1 is projected globally as attributable to climate change ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-9#9.3.1|Section 9.3.1]] ).

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'''Figure 17.6 |''' '''Understanding the spectrum of incremental to transformational planned adaptation for managing climate related heat risk to health including associated soft and hard adaptation limits (Representative Key Risk-E (RKR-E)).''' Evidence from regional and thematic chapters. The figure from the WGI Atlas shows the change in extreme hot days (above 35°C) across regions for a medium-term scenario and medium global warming relative to 1850–1900. See Table SM17.19.

Planned and implemented adaptation interventions in all regions have remained largely incremental, while uptake is being intensified in some regions; options have included air conditioning (as autonomously deployed), public cooling spaces, heat action plans that incorporate early warning and response and heat-adapted building design (Sections 9.9.5, 11.3.6, 12.5.6.1.1,13.11.3, 13.11.3, 15.6.2).

Given increasing risks projected and soft and hard limits already reported, transformation is being considered as a complement potentially leading to systemic and transformational change. Adaptation, if upgraded to also consider transformational interventions, will thus help to reduce heat risks ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' , ''limited evidence'' ), albeit with reduced effectiveness at higher levels of warming, particularly in regions (Africa, Asia) where lethal heatwaves are projected to occur almost annually towards later in the 21st ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Sections 9.1, 10.4.7).

This may involve urban redesign using nature-based solutions (such as green roofs and infrastructure) as well as rescheduling of outdoor labour or cross-sectorial coordination. Integrated approaches across interdependent systems (e.g., ecosystem-based approaches and climate-sensitive urban design) are being proposed. Also, it may mean bolstering social safety nets and health systems that better attend to heat impacts by providing universal coverage. Societal and political transformations to reduce climate change risks for vulnerable groups are considered particularly relevant in some regions (Sections 9.4.2.1.2, 9.9.5, 10.4.6.4.3, 12.5.3.2, 13.6.2.1, 14.6). Yet, across all regions there is ''limited evidence'' on proposed transformational adaptation and very little evidence regarding implementation ( ''high confidence'' ).

As a consequence, studies project soft limits to be further reached as increased mortality and morbidity will add stress to health systems, and labour productivity will be severely hampered, impacting economic systems ( ''medium'' to ''high confidence'' ) at medium to higher levels of global warming (Sections 7.2.4.1, 9.10, 10.4.4.4, 11.9.1, 13.6.2.3, 13.7.2, 13.7.4, 13.10.2.1, 13.8, 15.3.4.9).

Hard limits may be breached in some regions where critical heat tolerance thresholds are projected to be surpassed at medium to higher levels of global warming, such as physiological survivability thresholds, which, for example, may render urban outdoor labour in Asia, Africa and North America infeasible (Sections 10.4.6.3.2, 14.8, Box 9.1).

Marine heatwaves have affected tropical coral reefs, which are analysed as part of RKR-B (Table SM17.20). Coral reefs across the tropics have recently seen massive bleaching events (such as for the Great Barrier Reefs) ( ''very high confidence'' ). Risks are projected to be further exacerbated by increases in intensity, frequency and duration of marine heatwaves ( ''high confidence'' ) as well as impacts from extreme events such as tropical cyclones ( ''low'' to ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.4.2|Section 3.4.2]] ).

Although there is some evidence of autonomous natural thermal adaptation, as indicated by the presence of stress-tolerant symbionts adapted to higher thermal thresholds observed in the Persian Gulf, there is ''low confidence'' ( ''limited evidence'' , ''low agreement'' ) that enhanced thermal tolerance can be maintained over time ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3|Chapter 3]] Box 5) as the adaptability in natural system is considered very limited and risks are driven by water temperature. Evidence suggests that already at further warming of 1.5°C coral reefs are put at high risk ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.4.2.1|Section 3.4.2.1]] ).

Planned adaptation can help to buy some limited time, including through recovery and restoration efforts that target resistant coral populations and interventions to culture heat-tolerant algal symbionts as well as by setting up marine protected areas. Under higher warming levels, transformation has been proposed as possibly complementing available management approaches with high-risk interventions, including enhanced corals and reef shading, which may help to sustain some coral reef systems beyond 1.5°C of global warming. Modelling has shown, however, that the effectiveness of such high-risk interventions declines beyond 2°C of global warming (Figure 3.23, [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.4.2.1|Section 3.4.2.1]] ) ( ''medium confidence'' ).

Already for limited warming beyond 1.5°C for mid-century with increasing intensity and frequency of marine heatwaves, hard limits are projected to become manifest in terms of widespread decline and loss of structural integrity ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.4.2.1|Section 3.4.2.1]] ), including for the two largest such systems, the Great Barrier Reef and the Mesoamerican coral reef ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-11#11.3.2|Section 11.3.2]] , Box 11.2, Tables 11.14, 12.4).

In terms of planned adaptation options that would provide benefits to populations, evidence suggests these are very limited and uncertain and bring along substantial risks to people, culture and ecosystems ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.5.2|Section 3.5.2]] , Cross-Chapter Box SLR). Concurrent with the loss of coral reefs, important ecosystem services, including to fishery, tourism and coastal protection, would be lost. Transformational adaptation, while requiring difficult choices to be made, is being discussed to help overcome soft limits through livelihood diversification for alternative income sources, assisted migration and planned relocation of communities dependent on the services provided by the reef ecosystem ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-3#3.5.2|Section 3.5.2]] ).

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'''Box 17.2 | Climate Risk Management in Conflict-Affected Areas'''
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Consequences of conflict that exacerbate vulnerability to climate change include: displacement, loss of access to employment leading to illegal livelihoods, gender-based violence, lack of land tenure, low literacy, poor access to social and health services, destruction, looting and theft of key assets, such as houses, food stocks and livestock, among others ( [[#Jaspars--2009|Jaspars and Maxwell, 2009]] ; [[#Chandra--2017|Chandra et al., 2017]] ; [[#Anguita%20Olmedo--2019|Anguita Olmedo and González Gómez del Miño, 2019]] ). Such impacts perpetuate cycles of poverty ( [[#World%20Bank--2013|World Bank, 2013]] ), making conflict-affected populations more susceptible to suffer from climate-related events ( [[#Basher--2006|Basher, 2006]] ; [[#Coughlan%20de%20Perez--2019|Coughlan de Perez et al., 2019]] ). For example, in Mindanao, Philippines, poverty is closely linked to long-standing armed conflicts; both climate change and conflict have significantly increased smallholder vulnerability, resulting in loss of livelihoods, financial assets, agricultural yield and the worsening of debt problems ( [[#Chandra--2017|Chandra et al., 2017]] ). In Colombia, displacement induced by conflict has pushed the population to live in high-risk areas such as steep slopes susceptible to landslides and river banks exposed to flooding ( [[#Albuja--2011|Albuja and Adarve, 2011]] ). This conflict-induced vulnerability, with little adaptation activity, has in turn resulted in climate-related disasters ( [[#Kuipers--2019|Kuipers, 2019]] ; [[#Siddiqi--2019|Siddiqi et al., 2019]] ).

Conflict can also limit the effectiveness of adaptation measures that do exist; a study across Africa, the Caribbean and Asia concluded that poor governance can limit the effectiveness of early-warning systems in these regions ( [[#Lumbroso--2016|Lumbroso et al., 2016]] ). Poor state services have health consequences and can limit social support networks ( [[#Peters--2018|Peters, 2018]] ). States are unable (even if they are willing) to assist or protect citizens in disasters. Non-governmental stakeholders play a large role in these contexts, but questions of long-term implications and accountability remain unaddressed ( [[#Peters--2018|Peters, 2018]] ).

Climate risk management and adaptation in conflict-affected contexts is challenging, first, given the complex and dynamic nature of vulnerability ( [[#Hilhorst--2003|Hilhorst, 2003]] ; [[#Frerks--2004|Frerks et al., 2004]] ) and, second, given factors such as weak or non-existent disaster risk governance, restricted access, human rights violations, power dynamics between parties in conflict, and environmental degradation, among others ( [[#Kloos--2013|Kloos et al., 2013]] ; [[#Marktanner--2015|Marktanner et al., 2015]] ; [[#ICRC--2016|ICRC, 2016]] ; [[#Quinn--2017|Quinn et al., 2017]] ; [[#Field--2018|Field and Kelman, 2018]] ; [[#Siddiqi--2018|Siddiqi, 2018]] ). Climate can also be a contributing factor to conflict ( [[#Mach--2019|Mach et al., 2019]] ). There is little peer-reviewed documentation available on adaptation in climate-affected contexts, and what exists is narrowly focused on agriculture at the expense of other sectors, such as cities, infrastructure and humanitarian operations (Sitati et al., accepted).

To address risks to livelihoods, conflict-sensitive livelihood programming has used vouchers to meet immediate needs, legal support to resolve land disputes, and disaster preparedness planning to identify safe places for displacement ( [[#Jaspars--2009|Jaspars and Maxwell, 2009]] ). For example, cooperation in the Philippines between Moro Islamic Liberation Front and United Nations agencies included training of farmers in disaster risk reduction, drought management and production of improved crop varieties to support a transition away from subsistence farming ( [[#Walch--2018|Walch, 2018]] ). In Mali, negotiations on fertilizer access and safe transport to agricultural lands were brokered by the International Committee of the Red Cross, and in Afghanistan, conflict-sensitive approaches have promoted ecosystem-based adaptation to support reforestation ( [[#Walch--2018|Walch, 2018]] ; [[#Mena--2020|Mena and Hilhorst, 2020]] ). Despite several examples of conflict-sensitive adaptation practices, little is known about the effectiveness of such efforts in reducing climate risks in these complex contexts (see [[#17.5|Section 17.5]] for further discussion of ‘effectiveness’).

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