Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-8 (section)

==== 8.3.2.5 Trends in Vulnerability and Poverty in Light of Climate Change and the COVID-19 Pandemic ====

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Literature that assesses trends of poverty and vulnerability, as well as exposure to climate change, reveals that geographic patterns of poverty and vulnerability are uneven and changing over time ( [[#Feldmeyer--2017|Feldmeyer et al., 2017]] ). However, a robust finding of different studies is that population growth in most vulnerable country groups and regions ‘is’ and ‘will be’ significantly higher in the future compared to population growth in countries classified as having low vulnerability (see [[#8.4.5.2|Section 8.4.5.2]] ). In summary, a significant increase of population is expected in highly vulnerable countries in the future. In addition, global studies predict that, by 2030, almost 50% of the world’s poor will be living in countries affected by state fragility, conflict and violence ( [[#UNISDR--2009|UNISDR, 2009]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2017|Hallegatte et al., 2017]] ).

Another important phenomenon that modifies trends in vulnerability to climate change and poverty is the COVID-19 pandemic (see Box 8.3). It is ''likely'' that the COVID-19 pandemic with its global repercussions will continue to modify and, in many cases, intensify poverty and human vulnerability ( [[#Laborde--2020a|Laborde et al., 2020a]] ; [[#Sumner--2020|Sumner et al., 2020]] ). Recent studies that estimate the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty agree that a significant increase of poverty due to COVID-19 and the respective lockdown of countries is already observed or expected in the near future ( [[#Laborde--2020b|Laborde et al., 2020b]] ; [[#Sumner--2020|Sumner et al., 2020]] ). These studies underscore that 80% of those newly living in extreme poverty (living on under 1.9 USD d −1 ) due to COVID-19 would be mainly located in two global regions: sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia ( [[#Sumner--2020|Sumner et al., 2020]] ). Consequently, the COVID-19 pandemic is ''likely'' to further increase inequality at different scales and increase the burden within regions already characterised by a significant adaptation gap in terms of high vulnerability (see also Figure 8.6). This implies that the capacity of people to prepare for present and future climate change impacts will further decrease within these countries and for specific vulnerable people or groups in these regions.

Recent scientific studies in the context of climate-influenced hazards and disasters also underscore that various regions and countries classified as highly vulnerable are characterised by a high persistence of human vulnerability and chronic poverty ( [[#Feldmeyer--2017|Feldmeyer et al., 2017]] ; [[#UN-DESA--2020b|UN-DESA, 2020b]] ; [[#World%20Bank--2020|World Bank, 2020]] ). For example, various highly vulnerable regions in Central, West and East Africa, countries such as Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Haiti, and also SIDS in Melanesia and Micronesia have been characterised by high levels of poverty for decades ( [[#World%20Bank--2020|World Bank, 2020]] ). Several of these highly vulnerable regions are also ''likely'' to experience a further increase in climate hazards such as sea level rise in Melanesia and Micronesia and in coastal zones of West Africa and more severe droughts in Africa ( [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] ).

There is ''robust evidence'' that in many world regions the exposure to climatic hazards is increasing with additional global warming ( [[#Chin-Yee--2019|Chin-Yee, 2019]] ; [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2019a|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019a]] ; [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] ). In addition, development patterns and practices such as urbanisation and migration to exposed areas, for example, to coastal zones in West Africa or South Asia is increasing exposure. While the spatial and temporal exposure to impacts from climate change and extreme events increases with higher levels of global warming ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2019a|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2019a]] ), in all global regions and various climate zones ( [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] ), the burden is greater for the most vulnerable regions where people have limited support and capacities to build adaptive capacities for future impacts of climate change.

In this regard, vulnerability assessment results provide an important additional layer of information for decision making in terms of defining adaptation and risk reduction needs and priorities, as shown in Figure 8.9. The figure shows the published climatic information regarding observed changes in agricultural and ecological droughts ( [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] ) combined with a background map of vulnerability. For example, the combined information reveals that even if the agreement on the type of changes observed in droughts is low for North and southeast Africa, it is the high vulnerability in this region that requires urgent attention (see Figure 8.9).

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[[File:d35a1a467bfe34c59d3637df6676ce1d IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_8_009.png]]

'''Figure 8.9 |''' '''Map with observed changes in agricultural and ecological droughts''' '''( [[#IPCC--2021|IPCC, 2021]] ) overlaid over human vulnerability (see Figure 8.''' '''6) provides a more comprehensive overview for defining adaptation priorities.'''

Recent reports on extreme poverty and human rights ( [[#Alston--2019|Alston, 2019]] ) show that millions already face malnutrition due to devastating drought. In addition, the linkages between ecosystem vulnerability and human vulnerability and human well-being are important aspects that need more attention, since, for example, the degradation of marine ecosystems that support food systems for hundreds of millions of people will threaten food security (see for details Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5).

While the findings of the Alston report underscore the urgency to act in order to protect people’s livelihoods, particularly in low-income countries, it also shows that extreme poverty ( [[#Alston--2019|Alston, 2019]] ) and different dimensions of poverty are found in middle- and high-income countries.

A study of the World Bank ( [[#Hallegatte--2017|Hallegatte et al., 2017]] ) estimates that losses in terms of well-being are significantly higher than actual asset losses experienced ( [[#Hallegatte--2017|Hallegatte et al., 2017]] ). A higher proportion of the global absolute economic losses occurred in high-income countries. About 56% of all disasters reported occurred in high-income countries, while the low-income countries account for 44% of the recorded disasters. However, low-income countries account for about 68% of the total deaths reported, high-income countries for about 32% ( [[#CRED%20and%20UNDRR--2020b|CRED and UNDRR, 2020b]] ). In contrast, average absolute economic losses [[#footnote-000|6]] were significantly lower in most vulnerable countries compared to low vulnerable countries ( [[#Birkmann--2022|Birkmann et al., 2022]] ). Economic loss trends from EM-DAT database ( [[#CRED--2020|CRED, 2020]] ) must be interpreted with caution. Economic loss data is often incomplete and needs to be improved. However, these differences in terms of economic losses can also be explained in part by the significant wealth differences and the monetary value of assets exposed. Consequently, there is a need to critically reflect on the measures used to assess L&amp;D from climate change. Interestingly, the number of people affected by droughts, floods and storms as a percentage of the total population and per hazard event again points to the disproportionate suffering of most vulnerable countries ( [[#Birkmann--2022|Birkmann et al., 2022]] ).

Overall, there is ''robust evidence'' that at the global scale poor and most vulnerable people, particularly in regions classified as highly vulnerable, are disproportionately affected by well-being losses and loss of life in the context of climate change and climate-influenced natural hazards ( [[#CRED%20and%20UNDRR--2015|CRED and UNDRR, 2015]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2017|Hallegatte et al., 2017]] ; [[#Birkmann--2022|Birkmann et al., 2022]] ) ( ''high agreement'' ). In this context, non-economic losses also need to receive more attention (see [[#8.3.3.2|Section 8.3.3.2]] ). While there is an emerging understanding that inequality and multidimensional poverty are important determinants of systemic vulnerability to climate change ( [[#Dennig--2015|Dennig et al., 2015]] ; [[#Hallegatte--2017|Hallegatte and Rozenberg, 2017]] ; [[#Islam--2017|Islam and Winkel, 2017]] ) that affects more than 3 billion people today, only very few countries explicitly aim to reduce poverty and income inequality as an adaptation measure (see e.g., [[#Brazil%20Ministry%20of%20Environment--2016|Brazil Ministry of Environment, 2016]] ) ''(high agreement)'' . Reducing vulnerability is a prerequisite for climate justice and just transitions.

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