Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.2.3.1 Impacts on prices and risk of hunger ====

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A protocol-based analysis based on AgMIP methods tested a combination of RCPs and SSPs to provide a range of projections for prices, risk of hunger, and land-use change (Hasegawa et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r391|391]]</sup> ) (Figure 5.7 and Supplementary Material Table SM5.4.). Previous studies have found that decreased agricultural productivity will depress agricultural supply, leading to price increases. Despite different economic models with various representations of the global food system (Valin et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r392|392]]</sup> ; Robinson et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r393|393]]</sup> ; Nelson et al. 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r394|394]]</sup> ; Schmitz et al. 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r395|395]]</sup> ), as well as having represented the SSPs in different ways, for example, technological change, land-use policies, and sustainable diets (Stehfest et al. 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r396|396]]</sup> ; Hasegawa et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r397|397]]</sup> ), the ensemble of participating models projected a 1–29% cereal price increase in 2050 across SSPs 1, 2 and 3 due to climate change (RCP 6.0). This would impact consumers globally through higher food prices, though regional effects will vary. The median cereal price increase was 7%, given current projections of demand. In all cases (across SSPs and global economic models), prices are projected to increase for rice and coarse grains, with only one instance of a price decline (–1%) observed for wheat in SSP1, with price increases projected in all other cases. Animal-sourced foods (ASFs) are also projected to see price increases (1%), but the range of projected price changes are about half those of cereals, highlighting that the climate impacts on ASFs will be felt indirectly, through the cost and availability of feed, and that there is significant scope for feed substitution within the livestock sector.

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'''Implications of climate change by 2050 on land-use, selected agricultural commodity prices, and the population at risk of hunger based on AgMIP Global Economic Model analysis.(A) Projected % change in land-use by 2050 by land type (cropland, grassland, and forest) and SSP. (B) Projected % changes in average world prices by 2050 for cereals (rice, […]'''
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Implications of climate change by 2050 on land-use, selected agricultural commodity prices, and the population at risk of hunger based on AgMIP Global Economic Model analysis.(A) Projected % change in land-use by 2050 by land type (cropland, grassland, and forest) and SSP. (B) Projected % changes in average world prices by 2050 for cereals (rice, wheat, and coarse grains) and animal sourced foods (ruminant meat, monogastric, and dairy) by SSP. (C)Percentage change by 2050 in the global population at risk of hunger by SSP. (Hasegawa et al. 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r1428|1428]]</sup> .

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Declining food availability caused by climate change is likely to lead to increasing food cost impacting consumers globally through higher prices and reduced purchasing power, with low-income consumers particularly at risk from higher food prices (Nelson et al. 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r398|398]]</sup> ; Springmann et al. 2016a <sup>[[#fn:r399|399]]</sup> and Nelson et al. 2018). Higher prices depress consumer demand, which in turn will not only reduce energy intake (calories) globally (Hasegawa et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r400|400]]</sup> ; Nelson et al. 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r401|401]]</sup> ; Springmann et al. 2016a <sup>[[#fn:r402|402]]</sup> and Hasegawa et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r403|403]]</sup> ), but will also likely lead to less healthy diets with lower availability of key micronutrients (Nelson et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r404|404]]</sup> ) and increase diet-related mortality in lower and middle-income countries (Springmann et al. 2016a <sup>[[#fn:r405|405]]</sup> ). These changes will slow progress towards the eradication of malnutrition in all its forms.

The extent that reduced energy intake leads to a heightened risk of hunger varies by global economic model. However, all models project an increase in the risk of hunger, with the median projection of an increase in the population at risk of insufficient energy intake by 6, 14, and 12% in 2050 for SSPs 1, 2 and 3 respectively compared to a no climate change reference scenario. This median percentage increase would be the equivalent of 8, 24 and 80 million (full range 1–183 million) additional people at risk of hunger due to climate change (Hasegawa et al. 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r406|406]]</sup> ).

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