Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.3.1.2 Projected Risks for Terrestrial and Freshwater Ecosystems ====

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Risks for terrestrial ecosystems will increase with warming ( ''very high confidence'' ) with high impacts at &gt;2.4°C GWL and very high impacts &gt;3.5°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#13.10.3|Section 13.10.3.1]] ). Land-use changes will increase extirpation and extinction risk ( ''very high confidence'' ) ( [[#Vermaat--2017|Vermaat et al., 2017]] ). In NEU, biodiversity vulnerability is projected to be lower as new climate and habitat space is becoming available ( [[#Warren--2018|Warren et al., 2018]] ; [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ). Warming &lt;1.5°C GWL would limit risks to biodiversity, while 4°C GWL and intensive land use could lead to a loss of suitable climate and habitat space for most species ( ''low confidence'' ) ( [[#Warren--2018|Warren et al., 2018]] ; [[#Harrison--2019|Harrison et al., 2019]] ).

Disruption of habitat connectivity reduces resilience and is projected to impact 30% of lake and river catchments in Europe by 2030, through drought and reduced river flows ( ''medium evidence'' ) ( [[#Markovic--2017|Markovic et al., 2017]] ). Average wetland area is not projected to change at 1.7°C GWL across Europe, while for &gt;4°C GWL expanding sites in NEU are not sufficient to balance losses in SEU and WCE ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Xi--2021|Xi et al., 2021]] ). At 3°C GWL the alpine tundra habitat and its associated species are projected to be lost in the Pyrenees and shrink dramatically in NEU, WCE and EEU ( [[#Anisimov--2017|Anisimov et al., 2017]] ; [[#Barredo--2020|Barredo et al., 2020]] ).

Population range shifts (Figures 13.7, 13.10) are projected to continue ( ''medium confidence'' at 1.5° GWL, ''high confidence'' at 3.0°C GWL) (Figure 13.8). The largest losses of suitable climatic conditions are projected for plants and insects, with different taxon-specific regions of highest risk, while proportions of species projected to lose suitable climates are lower for other groups ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure Box 13.1.1; Table SM13.3; [[#Warren--2018|Warren et al., 2018]] ). Temperatures &gt;1.5°C GWL will lead to a progressive subtropicalisation in SEU, expanding into WCE at &gt;3°C GWL, a northward shift in the temperate domain into NEU ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Feyen--2020|Feyen et al., 2020]] ) and an expansion of desert biomes in EEU ( [[#Sergienko--2016|Sergienko and Konstantinov, 2016]] ). Changes in distribution are projected for major tree species in all European regions at 1.7°C GWL ( [[#Dyderski--2018|Dyderski et al., 2018]] ; [[#Leskinen--2020|Leskinen et al., 2020]] ), with economic implications for managed forests ( [[#13.5.1.4|Section 13.5.1.4]] ). The longer growth season in NEU and WCE will support the establishment of invasive species (Cross-Chapter Paper 1). Temperatures &lt;1.5°C GWL would limit expansion and novel appearances of pests, while &gt;3.4°C GWL would make large parts of SEU and WCE suitable for pests, for example, wood beetles ( [[#Urvois--2021|Urvois et al., 2021]] ), and increase economic losses due to lower harvest quality of timber ( [[#Toth--2020|Toth et al., 2020]] ).

Risks emerging from climate change for phenology are uncertain, given asynchrony between species, taxa and trophic responses ( [[#Thackeray--2016|Thackeray et al., 2016]] ; [[#Posledovich--2018|Posledovich et al., 2018]] ; [[#Keogan--2021|Keogan et al., 2021]] ) and the complexity of phenological events and their cues ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Delgado--2020|Delgado et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ettinger--2020|Ettinger et al., 2020]] ). Spring events may continue to occur earlier ( [[#Gaüzère--2016|Gaüzère et al., 2016]] ), but reduced chilling may decrease this temporal shift ( [[#Wang--2020|Wang et al., 2020]] ). Projections for autumn are mixed, with continuing delays ( [[#Prislan--2019|Prislan et al., 2019]] ) or earlier onset of leaf senescence ( [[#Wu--2018|Wu et al., 2018]] ), but reduced chilling may also decrease these developments ( [[#Wang--2020|Wang et al., 2020]] ). Advancement, combined with longer autumn growth, may extend the growing season of trees by two days per decade in SEU ( [[#Prislan--2019|Prislan et al., 2019]] ). Warming to &gt;3°C GWL will impact forest planning in NEU ( [[#Caffarra--2014|Caffarra et al., 2014]] ).

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