Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-1 (section)

=== 1.6.3 Climate Mitigation, Equity and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) ===

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Climate action can be conceptualised as both a stand-alone and cross-cutting issue in the 2030 SDGs ( [[#Makomere--2018|Makomere and Liti Mbeva 2018]] ), given that several of the other goals such as ending poverty (SDG 1), zero hunger (SDG 2), good health and well-being (SDG 3), and affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), among many others, are related to climate change (Figure 3.39).

In addition to galvanising global collective action, the SDGs provide concrete themes, targets and indicators for measuring human progress to sustainability (Kanie and Biermann 2017). The SDGs also provide a basis for exploring the synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development and climate change mitigation ( [[#Pradhan--2017|Pradhan et al. 2017]] ; [[#Fuso%20Nerini--2018|Fuso Nerini et al. 2018]] ; [[#Mainali--2018|Mainali et al. 2018]] ; [[#Makomere--2018|Makomere and Liti Mbeva 2018]] ). Progress to date ( [[#Sachs--2016|Sachs et al. 2016]] ) shows fulfilling SDGs is a challenge for all groups of countries – developed and developing – even though the challenge differs between countries and regions ( [[#Pradhan--2017|Pradhan et al. 2017]] ).

Historically, the industrialisation associated with economic development has involved a strong relationship with GHG emissions ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.2.1|Section 5.2.1]] ). Figure 1.6 shows per-capita GHG emissions on the vertical axis and Historical Index of Human Development (HIHD) levels ( [[#Prados%20de%20la%20Escosura--2015|Prados de la Escosura 2015]] ) on the horizontal axis. [[#footnote-002|7]] The grey line shows historic global average GHG emissions per capita and levels of human development over time, from 1870 to 2014. The current positions of different regions are shown by bubbles, with sizes representing total GHG emissions. Figure 1.6 also shows the estimated position of the SDGs zone for the year 2030, and a ‘sustainable development corridor’ as countries reach towards higher HDI and lower emissions. To fulfil the SDGs, including SDG 13 (climate action), the historic relationship needs to change.

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'''Figure 1.6 | Sustainable development pathways towards fulfilling the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).''' The graph shows global average per-capita GHG emissions (vertical axis) and relative ‘Historic Index of Human Development’ (HIHD) levels (horizontal) have increased globally since the industrial revolution (grey line). The bubbles on the graph show regional per-capita GHG emissions and human development levels in the year 2015, illustrating large disparities. Pathways towards fulfilling the Paris Agreement (and SDG 13) involve global average per-capita GHG emissions below about 5 tCO 2 -eq by 2030. Likewise, to fulfil SDGs 3, 4 and 8, HIHD levels (see footnote 7) need to be at least 0.5 or greater. This suggests a ‘sustainable development zone’ for year 2030 (in pale brown); the in-figure text also suggests a ‘sustainable development corridor’, where countries limit per-capita GHG emissions while improving levels of human development over time. The emphasis of pathways into the sustainable development zone differ (dashed brown arrows), but in each case transformations are needed in how human development is attained while limiting GHG emissions.

Thetop of the SDG zone is situated around the global per-capita GHG emissions level of 5 tCO 2 -eq required for the world to be path towards fulfilling the Paris Agreement. [[#footnote-001|8]] The horizontal position of the SDG zone is estimated based on the HIHD levels ( [[#Prados%20de%20la%20Escosura--2015|Prados de la Escosura 2015]] ) of countries that have been shown to either have achieved, or have some challenges, when it comes to SDG 3, SDG 4 and SDG 8 ( [[#Sachs--2016|Sachs et al. 2016]] ), as these SDGs are related to the constituent parts of the HIHD. Beyond 2030, the sustainable development corridor allows for increasing levels of human development while lowering per-capita GHG emissions.

Figure 1.6 shows that at present, regions with HIHD levels of around 0.5 all have emissions at or above about 5 tCO 2 -eq per capita (even more so on a consumption footprint basis; see Figure 1.1c,d), but there are wide variations within this. Indeed, there are regions with HIHD levels above 0.8 which have GHG per-capita emissions lower than several with HIHD levels of around 0.5. The mitigation challenge involves countries at many different stages of development seeking paths towards higher welfare with low emissions.

From Figure 1.6, there are two distinct dimensions to sustainable development pathways for fulfilling the SDGs. In terms of per-capita GHG emissions (the vertical), some regions have such low levels that they could increase and still be below the global average required in 2030 for the world to be on path to fulfil the Paris Agreement. Meanwhile, other regions with high per-capita GHG emissions would require a rapid transformation in technologies and practices. It is against this background that [[#Dubash--2019|Dubash (2019)]] emphasises placing the need for urgent action on climate change in the context of domestic political priorities and the institutions within which national frameworks are crystallised.

Concerns over equity in the context of growing global inequality and very tight remaining global carbon budgets have motivated an emphasis on equitable access to sustainable development ( [[#Peters--2015|Peters et al. 2015]] ; [[#Kartha--2018b|Kartha et al. 2018b]] ; [[#Matthews--2019|Matthews et al. 2019]] ; [[#van%20den%20Berg--2019|van den Berg et al. 2019]] ). This literature emphasises the need for less developed countries to have sufficient room for development while addressing climate change ( [[#Winkler--2013|Winkler et al. 2013]] ; [[#Pan--2014|Pan et al. 2014]] ; [[#Gajevic%20Sayegh--2017|Gajevic Sayegh 2017]] ; [[#Robinson--2018|Robinson and Shine 2018]] ; [[#Warlenius--2018|Warlenius 2018]] ). Meanwhile, many countries reliant on fossil fuels, related technologies and economic activities, are eager to ensure tax revenues are maintained, workers and industries have income and justice is embedded in the economic transformations required to limit GHG emissions ( [[#Cronin--2021|Cronin et al. 2021]] ).

Correlation between CO 2 emission intensity, or absolute emission and gross domestic product growth, is not rigid, unambiguous and deterministic ( [[#Ojekunle--2015|Ojekunle et al. 2015]] ), but the extent to which SDGs and economic growth expectations can be fulfilled while decoupling GHG emissions remains a concern ( [[#Haberl--2020|Haberl et al. 2020]] ; [[#Hickel--2020|Hickel and Kallis 2020]] ). Below some thresholds of absolute poverty, more consumption is necessary for development to lead to well-being ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-5#5.2.1.1|Section 5.2.1.1]] ), which may not be the case at higher levels of consumption ( [[#Lamb--2017|Lamb and Steinberger 2017]] ; [[#Steinberger--2020|Steinberger et al. 2020]] ) ( [[#1.7.2|Section 1.7.2]] ).

In conclusion, achieving climate stabilisation in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty requires collective action and exploiting synergies between climate action and sustainable development, while minimising the impact of trade-offs ( [[#Najam--2005|Najam 2005]] ; [[#Okereke--2017|Okereke and Massaquoi 2017]] ; [[#Makomere--2018|Makomere and Liti Mbeva 2018]] ; [[#Dooley--2021|Dooley et al. 2021]] ). It also requires a focus on equity considerations to avoid climate-induced harm, as well as unfairness that can result from urgent actions to cut emissions ( [[#Pan--2014|Pan et al. 2014]] ; [[#Robiou%20du%20Pont--2017|Robiou du Pont et al. 2017]] ; [[#Kartha--2018a|Kartha et al. 2018a]] ). This is ever more important as the diminishing carbon budget has intensified debates on which countries should have the greatest claim to the ‘remaining space’ for emissions ( [[#Raupach--2014|Raupach et al. 2014]] ) or production ( [[#McGlade--2015|McGlade and Ekins 2015]] ), amplified by persistent concerns over the insufficiency of support for means of implementation, to support ambitious mitigation efforts ( [[#Pickering--2015|Pickering et al. 2015]] ; [[#Weikmans--2019|Weikmans and Roberts 2019]] ).

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