Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-2 (section)

==== 2.4.2.5 AFOLU Sector ====

<div id="h3-9-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) reached 13 GtCO 2 -eq globally in 2019 ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 2.21). AFOLU trends, particularly those for CO 2 -LULUCF, are subject to a high degree of uncertainty ( [[#2.2.1|Section 2.2.1]] ). Overall, the AFOLU sector accounts for 22% of total global GHG emissions, and in several regions – Africa, Latin America, and South-East Asia – it is the single largest emitting sector, which is also significantly affected itself by climate change (AR6 WGI Chapters 8, 11, and 12; and AR6 WGII Chapter 5). Latin America has the highest absolute and per capita AFOLU GHG emissions of any world region (Figure 2.21). CO 2 emissions from land-use change and CH 4 emissions from enteric fermentation together account for 74% of sector-wide GHGs. Note that CO 2 -LULUCF estimates included in this chapter are not necessarily comparable with country GHG inventories, due to different approaches to estimating anthropogenic CO 2 sinks ( [[#Grassi--2018|Grassi et al. 2018]] ) (Chapter 7).

<div id="_idContainer053" class="Basic-Text-Frame"></div>

[[File:1bf5545cf894ca923252ce3b83d57ad5 IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Figure_2_21.png]]

'''Figure 2.21''' '''|''' '''Trends and drivers of global AFOLU sector emissions: (a) trends of GHG emissions by subsectors 1990–2019; (b) share of total sector and per capita GHG emissions by world region in 2019; and (c) Kaya decomposition of GHG emissions drivers.''' Based on the equation H=P(A/P)(L/A)(H/L), where P is population, A/P is agricultural output per capita, L/A is the land required per unit of agricultural output (land efficiency), and H/L is GHG emissions per unit of land (GHG intensity) ( [[#Hong--2021|Hong et al. 2021]] ). GHG emissions H comprise agricultural CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from EDGAR v6.0. The indicated annual growth rates are averaged across the years 2010–2019 – LULUCF CO 2 emissions are excluded in panel (c). (Note: due to different datasets, the population breakdown for AFOLU emissions is slightly different than that in the other sector figures above).

Unlike all other sectors, AFOLU emissions are typically higher in developing compared to developed regions ( ''medium confidence'' ). In Africa, Latin America, and South-East Asia, CO 2 emissions associated with land-use change and management predominate, dwarfing other AFOLU and non-AFOLU sources and making AFOLU the single largest sector with more than 50% of emissions in these regions ( [[#Lamb--2021b|Lamb et al. 2021b]] ). Land-use and land-management emissions are associated with the expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas ( [[#Vancutsem--2021|Vancutsem et al. 2021]] ), where large quantities of CO 2 emissions result from the removal and burning of biomass and draining of carbon rich soils ( [[#Pearson--2017|Pearson et al. 2017]] ; [[#IPCC--2018|IPCC 2018]] ; [[#Hong--2021|Hong et al. 2021]] ). Ruminant livestock rearing takes place on vast tracts of pasture land worldwide, contributing to large quantities of CH 4 emissions from enteric fermentation in Latin America (0.8 GtCO 2 -eq in 2018), Southern Asia (0.6 GtCO 2 -eq), and Africa (0.5 GtCO 2 -eq), while also playing a sizable role in the total AFOLU emissions of most other regions ( [[#Lamb--2021b|Lamb et al. 2021b]] ).

In all regions, the amount of land required per unit of agricultural output has decreased significantly from 2010 to 2019, with a global average of –2.2% yr –1 (land efficiency metric in Figure 2.21). This reflects agricultural intensification and technological progress. However, in most regions this was mirrored by an increase in output per capita, meaning that absolute GHG emissions in most regions increased over the last decade. A significant increase in total AFOLU emissions occurred in Africa, driven by both increased GHG emissions per unit of land and increased populations (Figure 2.21).

The AFOLU sector and its emissions impacts are closely tied to global supply chains, with countries in Latin America and South-East Asia using large portions of their land for agricultural and forestry products exported to other countries (Chapter 7). The strong increases in production per capita and associated GHG emissions seen in these regions are at least partly attributable to growing exports and not national food system or dietary changes. At the same time, efforts to promote environmental sustainability in regions such as the EU and the USA (but also fast-growing emerging economies such as China) can take place at the cost of increasing land displacement elsewhere to meet their own demand ( [[#Meyfroidt--2010|Meyfroidt et al. 2010]] ; [[#Yu--2013|Yu et al. 2013]] ; [[#Creutzig--2019|Creutzig et al. 2019]] ).

Global diets are a key driver of production per capita, and thus land pressure and AFOLU emissions (Chapter 7). As per capita incomes rise and populations urbanise, traditional, low-calorie diets that emphasise starchy foods, legumes, and vegetables transition towards energy-intensive products such as refined sugars, fats, oils, and meat ( [[#Pradhan--2013|Pradhan et al. 2013]] ; [[#Tilman--2014|Tilman and Clark 2014]] ). At a certain point in national development, affluence and associated diets thus override population growth as the main driver of AFOLU emissions ( [[#Kastner--2012|Kastner et al. 2012]] ). Very high calorie diets have high total GHG emissions per capita ( [[#Heller--2015|Heller and Keoleian 2015]] ) and are common in the developed world ( [[#Pradhan--2013|Pradhan et al. 2013]] ). Over the last few decades, a ‘westernisation’ of diets has also been occurring in developing countries ( [[#Pradhan--2013|Pradhan et al. 2013]] ). Low- and middle-income countries such as India, Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, and South Africa have experienced a rapid dietary shift towards western-style diets (De [[#Carvalho--2013|Carvalho et al. 2013]] ; [[#Pradhan--2013|Pradhan et al. 2013]] ; [[#Popkin--2015|Popkin 2015]] ). Another driver of higher food requirements per capita is food waste, which has increased more or less continuously since the 1960s in all regions but Europe ( [[#Porter--2016|Porter and Reay 2016]] ).

<div id="2.4.3" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="poverty-and-inequality"></span>