Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.3.3.4 Electrification of cities and transport ====

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The electrification of urban systems, including transport, has shown global progress since AR5 (IEA, 2016a; Kennedy et al., 2018; Schiller and Kenworthy, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r351|351]]</sup> . High growth rates are now appearing in electric vehicles (Figure 4.1), electric bikes and electric transit (IEA, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r352|352]]</sup> , which would need to displace fossil fuel-powered passenger vehicles by 2035–2050 to remain in line with 1.5°C-consistent pathways. China’s 2017 Road Map calls for 20% of new vehicle sales to be electric. India is aiming for exclusively electric vehicles (EVs) by 2032 (NITI Aayog and RMI, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r353|353]]</sup> . Globally, EV sales were up 42% in 2016 relative to 2015, and in the United States EV sales were up 36% over the same period (Johnson and Walker, 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r354|354]]</sup> .

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'''Figure 4.1'''

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'''Increase of the global electric car stock by country (2013–2017).'''
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[[File:7a745c048d60a7c92d6bc6d3b4f1c107 fig-4.1-1024x588.jpg]]

The grey line is battery electric vehicles (BEV) only while the black line includes both BEV and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV). Source: (IEA, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r355|355]]</sup> . Based on IEA data from Global EV Outlook 2018 © OECD/IEA 2018, IEA Publishing.

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The extent of electric railways in and between cities has expanded since AR5 (IEA, 2016a; Mittal et al., 2016; Zhang et al., 2016; Li and Loo, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r356|356]]</sup> . In high-income cities there is ''medium evidence'' for the decoupling of car use and wealth since AR5 (Newman, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r357|357]]</sup> . In cities where private vehicle ownership is expected to increase, less carbon-intensive fuel sources and reduced car journeys will be necessary as well as electrification of all modes of transport (Mittal et al., 2016; van Vuuren et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r358|358]]</sup> . Some recent urban data show a decoupling of urban growth and GHG emissions (Newman and Kenworthy, 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r359|359]]</sup> and that ‘peak car’ has been reached in Shanghai and Beijing (Gao and Kenworthy, 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r360|360]]</sup> and beyond (Manville et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r361|361]]</sup> (also see Box 4.9).

An estimated 800 cities globally have operational bike-share schemes (E. Fishman et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r362|362]]</sup> , and China had 250 million electric bicycles in 2017 (Newman et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r363|363]]</sup> . Advances in information and communication technologies (ICT) offer cities the chance to reduce urban transport congestion and fuel consumption by making better use of the urban vehicle fleet through car sharing, driverless cars and coordinated public transport, especially when electrified (Wee, 2015; Glazebrook and Newman, 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r364|364]]</sup> . Advances in ‘big-data’ can assist in creating a better understanding of the connections between cities, green infrastructure, environmental services and health (Jennings et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r365|365]]</sup> and improve decision-making in urban development (Lin et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r366|366]]</sup> .

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