Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

==== 13.3.1.3 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks of Wildfires ====

<div id="h3-7-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div>

Fires affect over 400,000 ha every year in the EU ( [[#San-Miguel-Ayanz--2019|San-Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2019]] ), with 85% of the area located in SEU ( [[#Khabarov--2016|Khabarov et al., 2016]] ; [[#de%20Rigo--2017|de Rigo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Gomes%20Da%20Costa--2020|Gomes Da Costa et al., 2020]] ), where ‘fire weather’ conditions (determined by temperature, precipitation, wind speed and relative humidity) are most pronounced (Figure 13.10). Fire hazard conditions, including heatwaves ( [[#Boer--2017|Boer et al., 2017]] ), increased throughout Europe from 1980 to 2019 (Figure 13.10), with substantive increases in SEU and WCE ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Urbieta--2019|Urbieta et al., 2019]] ; [[#Di%20Giuseppe--2020|Di Giuseppe et al., 2020]] ; [[#Fargeon--2020|Fargeon et al., 2020]] ). Extreme wildfires have been observed in recent years, including 2017 in Portugal, 2018 in Sweden ( [[#Krikken--2021|Krikken et al., 2021]] ) and 2021 in south-eastern Europe. In SEU, WCE and NEU human activities have caused more than 90–95% of the fires, while natural ignition accounts for a substantial portion of burned areas in EEU ( [[#Wu--2015|Wu et al., 2015]] ; [[#Filipchuk--2018|Filipchuk et al., 2018]] ).

<div id="_idContainer031" class="Figure"></div>

[[File:fdf9edfa5e9824493130eafbe1b761fa IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_009.png]]

'''Figure 13.9 |''' '''Species projected to remain within their suitable climate conditions at increasing levels of climate change.''' Colour shading represents the proportion of species projected to remain within their suitable climates averaged over 21 CMIP5 climate models ( [[#Warren--2018|Warren et al., 2018]] ). Areas shaded in green retain a large number of species with suitable climate conditions, while those in purple represent areas where climates become unsuitable for more than 80% of species without dispersal (Table SM13.3).

<div id="_idContainer033" class="Figure"></div>

[[File:ef56468a21315a21d26f6cbda5308c89 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_010.png]]

'''Figure 13.10 |''' '''Geographical variability and dynamic changes in fire danger in Europe over recent decades.''' Significant increases in fire hazard at the multi-decadal scale and unprecedented years of elevated fire hazard have occurred over the past decade in Southern and Western Central Europe (SEU, WCE). The environmental conditions required for fires to spread and intensify were evaluated using fire hazard estimates (Fire Weather index, FWI, based on meteorological variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed and relative humidity). The FWI trends were calculated with the ECMWF ERA-5 FWI reanalysis dataset ( [[#Copernicus--2019|Copernicus, 2019]] ; [[#Copernicus--2020a|Copernicus, 2020a]] ; [[#Copernicus--2020b|Copernicus, 2020b]] ).

Except for Portugal, burned area in SEU has shown a slightly decreasing trend since 1980, with high interannual variability (Cross-Chapter Paper 4; [[#Turco--2016|Turco et al., 2016]] ; [[#de%20Rigo--2017|de Rigo et al., 2017]] ). In SEU, burned terrestrial biomass declined from 2003 to 2019 ( [[#Turco--2016|Turco et al., 2016]] ), despite increasing fire risks. This trend is parallel to increasing fire management measures implemented ( [[#Fernandez-Anez--2021|Fernandez-Anez et al., 2021]] ). The slight increase in burned biomass in WCE and NEU is associated with more hazardous landscape configurations and warming in recent decades ( [[#Turco--2016|Turco et al., 2016]] ; [[#Urbieta--2019|Urbieta et al., 2019]] ).

Projections of wildfire risks are uncertain due to multiple factors, including compound events, fire–vegetation interaction and social factors ( [[#Thompson--2011|Thompson and Calkin, 2011]] ; [[#San-Miguel-Ayanz--2019|San-Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2019]] ). Wildfire risks could increase across all regions of Europe at 1.5°C and 3°C GWL ( ''medium to high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.8). In SEU, the frequency of heat-induced fire weather is projected to increase by 14% at 2.5°C GWL and rise to 30% at 4.4°C GWL ( [[#Turco--2018|Turco et al., 2018]] ; [[#Gomes%20Da%20Costa--2020|Gomes Da Costa et al., 2020]] ; [[#Ruffault--2020|Ruffault et al., 2020]] ). In the European Arctic, the extent and duration of extreme fire seasons will increase because of increasing extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetation and ground fuel conditions due to prolonged droughts ( [[#McCarty--2021|McCarty et al., 2021]] ). Projections suggest that new fire-prone regions in Europe could emerge, particularly in WCE and NEU where wildfires have been uncommon and fire management capacity is slowly increasing ( [[#Wu--2015|Wu et al., 2015]] ; [[#Forzieri--2021|Forzieri et al., 2021]] ).

<div id="13.3.1.4" class="h3-container"></div>

<span id="observed-impacts-and-projected-risks-on-ecosystem-functions-and-regulating-services"></span>