Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-3 (section)

=== 3.3.3 Impacts on Mitigation Potential ''[[#footnote-009|11]]'' ===

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At the moment, climate change impact on mitigation potential is hardly considered in model-based scenarios. While a detailed overview of climate impacts is provided in IPCC AR6 WGII and [[#3.6|Section 3.6]] discusses the economic consequences, here we concentrate on the implications for mitigation potential. Climate change directly impacts the carbon budget via all kinds of feedbacks – which is included in the ranges provided for the carbon budget (e.g., 300–900 GtCO 2 for 17th–83rd percentile for not exceeding 1.5°C; see AR6 WGI Chapter 5, 2021). Climate change, however, alters the production and consumption of energy ( [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-6#6.5|Section 6.5]] ). An overview of the literature is provided by [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. (2020)]] . In terms of supply, impacts could influence the cooling capacity of thermal plants, the potential and predictability of renewable energy, and energy infrastructure ( [[#van%20Vliet--2016|van Vliet et al. 2016]] ; [[#Turner--2017|Turner et al. 2017]] ; [[#Cronin--2018a|Cronin et al. 2018a]] ; [[#Lucena--2018|Lucena et al. 2018]] ; [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. 2020]] ; [[#Gernaat--2021|Gernaat et al. 2021]] ). Although the outcomes of these studies differ, they seem to suggest that although impacts might be relatively small at the global scale, they could be substantial at the regional scale (increasing or decreasing potential). Climate change can also impact energy demand, with rising temperatures resulting in decreases in heating demand and increases in cooling demand ( [[#Isaac--2009|Isaac and van Vuuren 2009]] ; [[#Zhou--2014|Zhou et al. 2014]] ; [[#Labriet--2015|Labriet et al. 2015]] ; [[#McFarland--2015|McFarland et al. 2015]] ; [[#Auffhammer--2017|Auffhammer et al. 2017]] ; [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ; [[#van%20Ruijven--2019|van Ruijven et al. 2019]] ; [[#Yalew--2020|Yalew et al. 2020]] ). As expected, the increase in cooling demand dominates the impact in warm regions and decreases in heating demand in cold regions ( [[#Isaac--2009|Isaac and van Vuuren 2009]] ; [[#Zhou--2014|Zhou et al. 2014]] ; [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ). Globally, most studies show a net increase in energy demand at the end of the century due to climate impacts ( [[#Isaac--2009|Isaac and van Vuuren 2009]] ; [[#Clarke--2018|Clarke et al. 2018]] ; [[#van%20Ruijven--2019|van Ruijven et al. 2019]] ); however, one study shows a net decrease ( [[#Labriet--2015|Labriet et al. 2015]] ). Only a few studies quantify the combined impacts of climate change on energy supply and energy demand ( [[#McFarland--2015|McFarland et al. 2015]] ; [[#Mima--2015|Mima and Criqui 2015]] ; [[#Emodi--2019|Emodi et al. 2019]] ; [[#Steinberg--2020|Steinberg et al. 2020]] ). These studies show increases in electricity generation in the USA ( [[#McFarland--2015|McFarland et al. 2015]] ; [[#Steinberg--2020|Steinberg et al. 2020]] ) and increases in CO 2 emissions in Australia ( [[#Emodi--2019|Emodi et al. 2019]] ) or the USA ( [[#McFarland--2015|McFarland et al. 2015]] ).

Climate change can impact the potential for AFOLU mitigation action by altering terrestrial carbon uptake, crop yields and bioenergy potential (Chapter 7). Carbon sequestration in forests may be positively or adversely affected by climate change and CO 2 fertilisation. On the one hand, elevated CO 2 levels and higher temperatures could enhance tree growth rates, carbon sequestration, and timber and biomass production ( [[#Beach--2015|Beach et al. 2015]] ; [[#Kim--2017|Kim et al. 2017]] ; [[#Anderegg--2020|Anderegg et al. 2020]] ). On the other hand, climate change could lead to greater frequency and intensity of disturbance events in forests, such as fires, prolonged droughts, storms, pests and diseases ( [[#Kim--2017|Kim et al. 2017]] ; [[#Anderegg--2020|Anderegg et al. 2020]] ). The impact of climate change on crop yields could also indirectly impact the availability of land for mitigation and AFOLU emissions ( [[#Calvin--2013|Calvin et al. 2013]] ; [[#Bajželj--2014|Bajželj and Richards 2014]] ; [[#Kyle--2014|Kyle et al. 2014]] ; [[#Beach--2015|Beach et al. 2015]] ; [[#Meijl--2018|Meijl et al. 2018]] ). The impact is, however, uncertain, as discussed in AR6 WGII Chapter 5. A few studies estimate the effect of climate impacts on AFOLU on mitigation, finding increases in carbon prices or mitigation costs by 1–6% in most scenarios ( [[#Calvin--2013|Calvin et al. 2013]] ; [[#Kyle--2014|Kyle et al. 2014]] ).

In summary, a limited number of studies quantify the impact of climate on emissions pathways. The most important impact in energy systems might be through the impact on demand, although climate change could also impact renewable mitigation potential – certainly at the local and regional scale. Climate change might be more important for land-use related mitigation measures, including afforestation, bioenergy and nature-based solutions. The net effect of changes in climate and CO 2 fertilisation are uncertain but could be substantial (Chapter 7).

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