Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/TS (section)

=== Adaptation progress and gaps ===

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'''TS.D.1 Increasing adaptation is being observed in natural and human systems (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''), yet the majority of climate risk management and adaptation currently being planned and implemented are incremental (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). There are gaps between current adaptation and the adaptation needed to avoid the increase of climate impacts that can be observed across sectors and regions, especially under medium and high warming levels (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' { 4.6.1, 4.6.2, 4.6.3, 4.6.4, 4.6.5, 4.6.6, 4.6.7, 4.6.8, 4.6.9, Box 4.3, Box 4.5, Box 4.6, 7.4.1, Table 4.8, Figure 4.24, Figure 6.4.3, Figure 6.5, 9.3.1, 9.6.4, 9.8.3, 9.11.4, 13.2, 13.11, 14.7.1, 16.3, 16.4, 17.2.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.4 CCP5.2.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.5.1 CCP7.5.1] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.5.2 CCP7.5.2] }

'''TS.D.1.1 Responses have accelerated in both developed and developing regions since AR5, with some examples of regression (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Growing adaptation knowledge in public and private sectors, increasing numbers of policy and legal frameworks and dedicated spending on adaptation are all clear indications that the availability of response options has expanded ( ''high confidence'' ). However, observed adaptation in human systems across all sectors and regions is dominated by small incremental, reactive changes to usual practices often after extreme weather events, while evidence of transformative adaptation in human systems is limited ( ''high confidence'' ). Droughts, pluvial, fluvial and coastal flooding are the most common hazards for which adaptation is being implemented, and many of these have physical, affordability and social limits ( ''high confidence'' ). There is some evidence of global vulnerability reduction, particularly for flood risk and extreme heat. { 1.4.5, 2.4.2, 2.4.5, 2.5.4, 2.6.1, 2.6.6, 3.4.2, 3.4.3, 3.6.3, 4.6.1, 4.6.2, 4.6.3, 4.6.4, 4.6.5, 4.6.6, 4.6.7, 4.6.8, 4.6.9, Box 4.3, Box 4.5, Box 4.6, 7.4.1, Table 4.8, Figure 4.24, 11.6, Table 11.14, Box 11.2, 12.12.5, 13.2.2, 13.10, 13.11, 14.7.1, 15.5.4, 16.3.2, 16.4.2, 12.3, CCB EXTREMES }

'''TS.D.1.2 Current adaptation in natural and managed ecosystems includes earlier planting and changes in crop varieties, soil improvement and water management for livestock and crops, aquaculture, restoration of coastal and hydrological processes, introduction of heat- and drought-adapted genotypes into high-risk populations, increasing the size and connectivity of habitat patches, agroecological farming, agroforestry and managed relocations of high-risk species (''' '''''medium''''' '''''confidence''''' ''').''' These measures can increase the resilience, productivity and sustainability of both natural and food systems under climate change ( ''high confidence'' ). Financial barriers limit the implementation of adaptation options in natural ecosystems, agriculture, fisheries, aquaculture and forestry as financial strategies are stochastically deployed. Investment in climate service provision has benefited the agricultural sector in many regions, with limited uptake of climate service information into decision-making frameworks ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 2.6.2, 2.6.3, 2.6.4, 2.6.5, 2.6.8, 3.6.3, 4.6.2, 4.7.1, Figure 4.23, 5.4.3, 5.5.3, 5.9.4, 5.10.3, 5.14.3, 9.4, 9.4.4, 9.4.1, 12.5.4, 12.8, 13.5.2, 13.10.2, 14.5.4, 15.5.7, 17.2.1, 17.5.1, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.5 CCP5.2.5] , CCP 7.5, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.D.1.3 The ambition, scope and progress on adaptation have risen among governments at the local, national and international levels, along with businesses, communities and civil society, but many funding, knowledge and practice gaps remain for effective implementation, monitoring and evaluation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' There are large gaps in risk management and risk transfer in low-income contexts, and even larger gaps in conflict-affected contexts ( ''high confidence'' ). Adaptive capacity is highly uneven across and within regions ( ''high confidence'' ). Current adaptation efforts are not expected to meet existing goals ( ''high confidence'' ). { 1.1.3, 1.2.1, 1.3.1, 1.3.2, 1.4.5, 2.6.2, 2.6.3, 2.6.6, 2.6.8, 3.6.3, 4.7.1, 6.1, 6.4.3, Figure 6.5, 9.1.5, 9.4.1, 9.4.5, 11.7.1, 11.7.2, 13.11.1, 14.7.1, 15.6, 17.2, 17.4.2, 17.5.1, 17.5.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.5 CCP7.5] , CCB DEEP, CCB NATURAL }

'''TS.D.1.4 Many cities and settlements have developed adaptation plans since AR5, but a limited number of these have been implemented so that urban adaptation gaps exist in all world regions and for all hazard types (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Many plans focus on climate risk reduction, missing opportunities to advance co-benefits of climate mitigation and sustainable development and risking compounding inequality and reduced well-being ( ''medium confidence'' ). The largest adaptation gaps exist in projects that manage complex risks, for example in the food–energy–water–health nexus or the inter-relationships of air quality and climate risk ( ''high confidence'' ). Most innovation in adaptation has occurred through advances in social and ecological infrastructures, including disaster risk management, social safety nets and green/blue infrastructure ( ''medium confidence'' ). However, most financial investment continues to be directed narrowly at large-scale hard engineering projects after climate events have caused harm ( ''medium confidence'' ). { 4.6.5, 6.3.1, 6.3.2, Figure 6.4, 6.4.3, 6.4.5, 10.3.7, Table 10.2, 11.3.5 '','' 12.5.5, 13.11, 14.5.5, 14.7.1, 15.3.4, 17.4.2, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.4 CCP2.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP5.2.7 CCP5.2.7] , CCB FINANCE }

'''TS.D.1.5 Systemic barriers constrain the implementation of adaptation options in vulnerable sectors, regions and social groups (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . Key barriers are limited resources, lack of private-sector and citizen engagement, insufficient mobilisation of finance (including for research), lack of political leadership, limited research and/or slow and low uptake of adaptation science and a low sense of urgency. Most of the adaptation options to the key risks depend on limited water and land resources ( ''high confidence'' ). Governance capacity, financial support and the legacy of past urban infrastructure investment constrain how cities and settlements are able to adapt ( ''high confidence'' ). Critical urban capacity gaps include limited ability to identify social vulnerability and community strengths, the absence of integrated planning to protect communities, the lack of access to innovative funding arrangements and a limited capability to manage finance and commercial insurance ( ''medium confidence'' ). Prioritisation of options and transitions from incremental to transformational adaptation are limited due to vested interests, economic lock-ins, institutional path dependencies and prevalent practices, cultures, norms and belief systems. For example, Africa faces severe climate data constraints and inequities in research funding and leadership that reduce adaptive capacity ( ''very high confidence'' )—from 1990 to 2019 research on Africa received just 3.8% of climate-related research funding globally, and 78% of this funding for Africa went to European Union- and North America–based institutions and only 14.5% to African institutions. { 3.6.3, 9.1.5, 9.5.1, 9.8.4, 12.5.1, 12.5.5, 12.5.7, 12.8, 13.11, 14.7.2, 15.6.1, 15.7, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.6 CCP7.6] , CCB FEASIB }

'''TS.D.1.6 Insufficient financing is a key driver of adaptation gaps (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Annual finance flows targeting adaptation for Africa, for example, are billions of US dollars less than the lowest adaptation cost estimates for near-term climate change (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Finance has not targeted more vulnerable countries and communities. From 2014 to 2018 a greater amount of financial commitments to developing countries was in the form of debt rather than grants, and—excluding multilateral development banks—only 51% of commitments targeting adaptation were dispersed (compared to 85% for other development projects). Tracked private-sector finance for climate change action has grown substantially since 2015, but the proportion directed towards adaptation has remained small ( ''high confidence'' ); in 2018 contributions were 0.05% of total climate finance and 1% of adaptation finance. Globally, private-sector financing of adaptation has been limited, especially in developing countries ( ''high confidence'' ). { 3.6.3, 4.7,4, 4.7.5, 4.8.2, 6.4.5, Table 6.10, 9.4.1, 12.5.4, 12.5.8, 15.6.3, 17.4.3, CCB FINANCE }

'''TS.D.1.7 Closing the adaptation gap requires moving beyond short-term planning to develop long-term, concerted pathways and enabling conditions for ongoing adaptation to ensure timely and effective implementation (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Inclusive, equitable and just adaptation pathways are critical for climate resilient development. Such pathways require consideration of SDGs, gender and Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge and practices. The success of adaptation will depend on our understanding of which adaptation options are feasible and effective in their local context ( ''high confidence'' ). Long lead times for nature-based and infrastructure solutions or planned relocation will require implementation in the coming decade to reduce risks in time. To close the adaptation gap, political commitment, persistent and consistent action across scales of government and upfront mobilisation of human and financial capital are key ( ''high confidence'' ), even when the benefits are not immediately visible. { 3.6.5, 4.8, 6.3.5, 11.7, 12.5.7, 13.2.2, 13.8, 13.11, 14.7.2, 15.7, [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.3 CCP2.3] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP2.4 CCP2.4] , [https://www.ipcc.ch/chapter/ts#CCP7.5 CCP7.5] , CCB DEEP, CCB FEASIB, CCB GENDER }

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