Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-7 (section)

=== 7.3.3 Indirect Drivers ===

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The indirect drivers behind how humans both use and impact natural resources are outlined in Table 7.2. Specifically; demographic, economic and cultural, scientific and technological, and institutional and governance drivers. These indirect drivers not only interact with each other at different temporal and spatial scales but are also subject to impacts and feedbacks from the direct drivers (Barger et al. 2018).

'''Table 7.2''' | '''Indirect drivers of anthropogenic land and natural resourc''' '''e use patterns.'''

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| '''Demography'''

| '''Global and regional trends in population growth:''' There was a 43% increase in global population between 1990 and 2018. The greatest growth was observed in Africa and the Middle East (+104%) and least growth in Eastern Europe and West-Central Asia (+7%) ( [[#FAO--2019b|FAO 2019b]] ).

'''Global and regional projections:''' Population is projected to increase by 28% between 2018 and 2050 reaching 9.7 billion (FAO 2019). The world’s population is expected to become older, more urbanised and live in smaller households ( [[#UNEP--2019|UNEP 2019]] ).

'''Human migration:''' Growing mobility and population are linked to human migration, a powerful driver of changes in land and resource use patterns at decadal time scales, with the dominant flow of people being from rural areas to urban settlements over the past few decades, notably in the developing world ( [[#Adger--2015|Adger et al. 2015]] ; Barger et al. 2018).

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| '''Economic development and cultural factors'''

| Changes in land use and management come from individual and social responses to economic opportunities (e.g., demand for a particular commodity or improved market access), mediated by institutions and policies (e.g., agricultural subsidies and low-interest credit or government-led infrastructure projects) (Barger et al. 2018).

'''Projections on consumption:''' If the future global population adopts a per capita consumption rate similar to that of the developed world, the global capacity to provide land-based resources will be exceeded (Barger et al. 2018). Economic growth in the developing world is projected to double the global consumption of forest and wood products by 2030, with demand likely to exceed production in many developing and emerging economies in Asia and Africa within the next decade (Barger et al. 2018).

'''Global trade:''' Market distorting agricultural subsidies and globalisation increases pressure on land systems and functions, with global trade and capital flow influencing land use, notably in developing countries ( [[#Furumo--2017|Furumo and Aide 2017]] ; [[#Yao--2018|Yao et al. 2018]] ; [[#Pendrill--2019a|Pendrill et al. 2019a]] ; [[#UNEP--2019|UNEP 2019]] , [[#OECD/FAO--2019|OECD/FAO 2019]] ). Estimates suggest that between 29 and 39% of emissions from deforestation in the tropics resulted from the international trade of agricultural commodities ( [[#Pendrill--2019a|Pendrill et al. 2019a]] ).

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| '''Science and technology'''

| Technological factors operates in conjunction with economic drivers of land use and management, whether through intensified farming techniques and biotechnology, high-input approaches to rehabilitating degraded land (e.g., [[#Lin--2017|Lin et al. 2017]] ; [[#Guo--2020|Guo et al. 2020]] ) or through new forms of data collection and monitoring (e.g., [[#Song--2018|Song et al. 2018]] ; [[#Thyagharajan--2019|Thyagharajan and Vignesh 2019]] ; [[#Arévalo--2020|Arévalo et al. 2020]] ).

'''Changes in farming and forestry systems:''' Changes can have both positive and negative impacts regarding multiple factors, including GHG emission trends. Fast advancing technologies shape production and consumption, and drive land-use patterns and terrestrial ecosystems at various scales. Innovation is expected to help drive increases in global crop production during the next decade ( [[#OECD/FAO--2019|OECD/FAO 2019]] ). For example, emerging gene editing technologies, may advance crop breeding capabilities, though are subject to biosafety, public acceptance and regulatory approval ( [[#Jaganathan--2018|Jaganathan et al. 2018]] ; [[#Chen--2019|Chen et al. 2019]] ; [[#Schmidt--2020|Schmidt et al. 2020]] ). Technological changes were significant for the expansion of soybean in Brazil by adapting to different soils and photoperiods ( [[#Abrahão--2018|Abrahão and Costa 2018]] ). In Asia, technological development changed agriculture with significant improvements in production and adaptation to climate change ( [[#Thomson--2019|Thomson et al. 2019]] ; [[#Giller--2019|Giller and Ewert 2019]] ; [[#Anderson--2020|Anderson et al. 2020]] ; [[#Cassman--2020|Cassman and Grassini 2020]] ). Developments such as precision agriculture and drip irrigation have facilitated more efficient agrochemical and water use ( [[#UNEP--2019|UNEP 2019]] ).

Research and development are central to forest restoration strategies that have become increasingly important around the world as costs vary depending on methods used, from natural regeneration with native tree species to active restoration using site preparation and planting ( [[#Löf--2019|Löf et al. 2019]] ). In addition, climate change poses the challenge about tree species selection in the future. Innovations in the forest sector also form the basis of a bioeconomy associated with bioproducts and new processes ( [[#Verkerk--2020|Verkerk et al. 2020]] ) (Cross-Working Group Box 3 in Chapter 12).

'''Emerging mitigation technologies:''' Chemically synthesised methanogen inhibitors for ruminants are expected to be commercially available in some countries within the next two years and have considerable CH 4 mitigation potential ( [[#McGinn--2019|McGinn et al. 2019]] ; [[#Melgar--2020|Melgar et al. 2020]] ; [[#Beauchemin--2020|Beauchemin et al. 2020]] ; [[#Reisinger--2021|Reisinger et al. 2021]] ) ( [[#7.4.3|Section 7.4.3]] ). There is growing literature (in both academic and non-academic spheres) on the biological engineering of protein. Although in its infancy and subject to investment, technological development, regulatory approval and consumer acceptance, it is suggested to have the potential to disrupt current livestock production systems and land use ( [[#Stephens--2018|Stephens et al. 2018]] ; [[#Ben-Arye--2019|Ben-Arye and Levenberg 2019]] ; [[#RethinkX--2019|RethinkX 2019]] ; [[#Post--2020|Post et al. 2020]] ). The extent to which this is possible and the overall climate benefits are unclear ( [[#Lynch--2019|Lynch and Pierrehumbert 2019]] ; [[#Chriki--2020|Chriki and Hocquette 2020]] ).

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| '''Institutions and governance'''

| Institutional factors often moderate the relevance and impact of changes in economic and demographic variables related to resource exploitation and use. Institutions encompass the rule of law, legal frameworks and other social structures (e.g., civil society networks and movements) determining land management (e.g., formal and informal property rights, regimes and their enforcement); information and knowledge exchange systems; local and traditional knowledge and practice systems (Barger et al. 2018).

'''Land rights''' : Land tenure often allows communities to exercise traditional governance based on traditional ecological knowledge, devolved and dynamic access rights, judicious use, equitable distribution of benefits ( [[#Mantyka-Pringle--2017|Mantyka-Pringle et al. 2017]] ; [[#Wynberg--2017|Wynberg 2017]] ; [[#Thomas--2017|Thomas et al. 2017]] ), biodiversity ( [[#Contreras-Negrete--2014|Contreras-Negrete et al. 2014]] ) and fire and grazing management ( [[#Levang--2015|Levang et al. 2015]] ; [[#Varghese--2015|Varghese et al. 2015]] ).

'''Agreements and Finance:''' Since AR5, global agreements were reached on climate change, sustainable development goals, and the mobilisation of finance for development and climate action. Several countries adopted policies and commitments to restore degraded land (Barger et al. 2018). The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO), launched the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration ( https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/ ).

Companies have also made pledges to reduce impacts on forests and on the rights of local communities as well as eliminating deforestation from their supply chains. The finance sector, a crucial driver behind action ( [[#7.6|Section 7.6]] , Box 7.12), has also started to make explicit commitments to avoiding environmental damage (Barger et al. 2018) and net zero targets ( [[#Forest%20Trends%20Ecosystem%20Marketplace--2021|Forest Trends Ecosystem Marketplace 2021]] ), though investment is sensitive to market outlook.

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