Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-12 (section)

===== Vulnerability and observed impacts: =====

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'''Central and South America (CSA) are highly exposed, vulnerable and strongly impacted by climate change''' ''''',''''' '''a situation amplified by inequality, poverty, population growth and high population density, land use change particularly deforestation with the consequent biodiversity loss, soil degradation, and high dependence of national and local economies on natural resources for the production of commodities (''' '''''high confidence''''' [[#footnote-001|1]] ''').''' Profound economic, ethnic and social inequalities are exacerbated by climate change. High levels of widespread poverty, weak water governance, unequal access to safe water and sanitation services and lack of infrastructure and financing reduce adaptation capacity, increasing and creating new population vulnerabilities ( ''high confidence'' ) ''.'' {12.1.1, 12.2, 12.3, 12.5.5, 12.5.7, Figure 12.2}

'''The Amazon forest, one of the world’s largest biodiversity and carbon repositories, is highly vulnerable to drought (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' The Amazon forest was highly impacted by the unprecedented droughts and higher temperatures observed in 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2015/2016, which are attributed partly to climate change. This resulted in high tree mortality rates and basin-wide reductions in forest productivity, momentarily turning pristine forest areas from a carbon sink into a net source of carbon to the atmosphere ( ''high confidence'' ). Other terrestrial ecosystems in CSA have been impacted by climate change, through persistent drought or extreme climatic events. The combined effect of anthropogenic land use change and climate change increases the vulnerabilities of terrestrial ecosystems to extreme climate events and fires ( ''medium confidence'' ). {12.3, 12.4, Figure 12.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.10}

'''The distribution of terrestrial species has changed in the Andes due to increasing temperature (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Species have shifted upslope, leading to range contractions for highland species and range contractions and expansions for lowland species, including crops and vectors of diseases ( ''very high confidence'' ). {12.3.2.4}

'''Ocean and coastal ecosystems in the region, such as coral reefs, estuaries, salt marshes, mangroves and sandy beaches, are highly sensitive and negatively impacted by climate change and derived hazards (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Observed impacts include the reduction in coral abundance, density and cover in Central America (CA), northwestern South America (NWS) and northeastern South America (NES) and an increasing number of coral bleaching events in CA and NES; other observed impacts are changes in the plankton community and in ocean and coastal food web structures, loss of vegetated wetlands and changes in macrobenthic communities in CA, NWS, northern South America (NSA) and southeastern South America (SES). {12.3, 12.5.2, Figure 12.8, Figure 12.9, Table SM12.3}

'''Global warming has caused glacier loss in the Andes from 30% to more than 50% of their area since the 1980s. Glacier retreat, temperature increase and precipitation variability, together with land use changes, have affected ecosystems, water resources and livelihoods through landslides and flood disasters (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' In several areas of the Andes, flood and landslide disasters have increased, and water availability and quality and soil erosion have been affected by both climatic and non-climatic factors ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.2, 12.3.7, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.13, Table SM12.6}

'''The scientific evidence since the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) increased the confidence in the synergy among fire, land use change, particularly deforestation, and climate change, directly impacting human health, ecosystem functioning, forest structure, food security and the livelihoods of resource-dependent communities''' '''(''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Regional increases in temperature, aridity and drought increased the frequency and intensity of fire. On average, people in the region were more exposed to high fire danger between 1 and 26 additional days depending on the sub-region for the years 2017–2020 compared to 2001–2004 ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.2, 12.3, Figure 12.9, Figure 12.10, Table 12.5}

'''Changes in the timing and magnitude of precipitation and extreme temperatures are impacting agricultural production (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Since the mid-20th century, increasing mean precipitation has positively impacted agricultural production in SES, although extremely long dry spells have become more frequent, affecting the economies of large cities in southeastern Brazil. Conversely, reduced precipitation and altered rainfall at the start and end of the rainy season and during the mid-summer drought (MSD) is impacting rainfed subsistence farming, particularly in the Dry Corridor in CA and in the tropical Andes, compromising food security ( ''high confidence'' ). The crop growth duration for maize in those regions was reduced by at least 5% between 1981–2010 and 2015–2019. {12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.6, Table 12.4}

'''Climate change affects the epidemiology of climate-sensitive infectious diseases in the region (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' '''''.''''' Examples are the effects of warming temperatures on increasing the suitability of transmission of vector-borne diseases, including endemic and emerging arboviral diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya and Zika ( ''medium confidence'' ). The reproduction potential for the transmission of dengue increased between 17% and 80% for the period 1950–1954 to 2016–2021, depending on the sub-region, as a result of changes in temperature and precipitation ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.1, 12.3.2, 12.3.3, 12.3.5, 12.3.6, Table 12.1}

'''The Andes, northeastern Brazil and the northern countries in CA are among the more sensitive regions to climatic-related migrations and displacements, a phenomenon that has increased since AR5 (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Climatic drivers interact with social, political, geopolitical and economic drivers; the most common climatic drivers for migration and displacements are droughts, tropical storms and hurricanes, heavy rains and floods ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.1.4, 12.3.2.4, 12.3.3.4, 12.3.5.4, 12.5.8.4}

'''The impacts of climate change are not of equal scope for men and women (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Women, particularly the poorest, are more vulnerable and are impacted in greater proportion. Often they have less capacity to adapt, further widening structural gender gaps ( ''high confidence'' ). {12.3.7.3, 12.5.2.4, 12.5.2.5, 12.5.7.3, 12.5.8.1, 12.5.8.3, 12.5.8.4}

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