Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-15 (section)

===== Observed Impacts =====

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'''A sense of urgency is prevalent among small islands in the combating of climate change and in adherence to the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.''' Small islands are increasingly affected by increases in temperature, the growing impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surges, droughts, changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise (SLR), coral bleaching and invasive species, all of which are already detectable across both natural and human systems ( ''very high confidence'' [[#footnote-001|1]] ) {15.3.3.1, 15.3.3.2, 15.3.3.3, 15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.2, 15.3.4.3, 15.3.4.4, 15.3.4.5, 15.3.4.7} .

'''The observed impacts of climate change differ between urban and rural contexts, island types and tropical and non-tropical islands (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Coastal cities and rural communities on small islands have been already impacted by SLR, heavy precipitation events, tropical cyclones and storm surges. Climate change is also affecting settlements and infrastructure, health and well-being, water and food security, and economies and culture, especially through compound events ( ''high confidence'' ). As of 2017, an estimated 22 million people in the Caribbean live below 6-m elevation and 50% of the Pacific’s population lives within 10 km of the coast along with ≥50% of their infrastructure concentrated within 500 m of the coast {15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.2, 15.3.4.3, 15.3.4.4, 15.3.4.5, 15.3.4.7} .

'''TCs are severely impacting small islands (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' The TC intensity and intensification rates at a global scale have increased in the past 40 years with intensity trends generally remaining positive. Intense TCs including Categories 4 and 5 TCs have threatened human life and destroyed buildings and infrastructural assets in small islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific. Among 29 Caribbean islands, 22 were affected by at least one Category 4 or 5 TC in 2017. TC Maria in 2017 destroyed nearly all of Dominica’s infrastructure and losses amounted to over 225% of the annual GDP. Destruction from TC Winston in 2016 exceeded 20% of Fiji’s current GDP. TC Pam devastated Vanuatu in 2015 and caused losses and damages to the agricultural sector valued at USD 56.5 million (64.1% of GDP). Coast-focused tourism is already extremely impacted by more intense TCs. {15.2.1, 15.3.3.1, 15.3.3.3, 15.3.4.1, 15.3.4.2, 15,3.4.4, 15.3.4.5} .

'''Scientific evidence has confirmed that globally and in small islands tropical corals are presently at high risk (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Severe coral bleaching, together with declines in coral abundance, has been observed in many small islands, especially those in the Pacific and Indian oceans ( ''high confidence'' ). In the Pacific, median return time between two severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980. The return time is now 6 years and often associated with the warm phase of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events ( ''high confidence'' ). In mid-2016, a new ENSO event occurred which reduced living coral cover by 75% in the Maldives {15.3.3.1.3, 15.3.4.8} .

'''Freshwater systems on small islands are exposed to dynamic climate impacts and are among the most threatened on the planet.''' An 11–36% reduction is estimated in the volume of fresh groundwater lens of the small atoll islands (area &lt; 0.6 km²) of the Maldives due to SLR. The El Niño-related 2015–2016 drought in Vanuatu led to reliance on small amounts of contaminated water left at the bottom of household tanks. A Caribbean high-resolution drought atlas spanning 1950–2016 indicates that the region-wide 2013–2016 drought was the most severe event during the multi-decadal period. In Puerto Rico, the island experienced 80 consecutive weeks of moderate drought, 48 weeks of severe drought and 33 weeks of extreme drought conditions between 2014 and 2016. Increasing trends in drought are apparent in the Caribbean although trends in the western Pacific are not statistically significant {15.3.3.2, 15.3.4.3} .

'''Small islands host significant levels of global terrestrial species diversity and endemism. Due to the large range of insular-related vulnerabilities, almost 50% of terrestrial species presently considered at risk of global extinction also occur on islands''' ( ''high confidence'' ) '''.''' Despite encompassing approximately 2% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface, oceanic and other high-endemicity islands are estimated to harbour substantial proportions of existing species including ~ 25% extant global flora, ~ 12% birds and ~10% mammals {15.3.3.3} .

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