Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-17 (section)

===== Introduction and Framing =====

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[https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-17 Chapter 17] assesses the options, processes and enabling conditions for climate risk management, a key component of climate resilient development. While [[IPCC:Wg2:Chapter:Chapter-16|Chapter 16]] assesses the risks that society and ecosystems face, and residual risks after adaptation, this chapter focuses on the ‘how’ of climate risk management and adaptation. It covers: the adaptation and risk management options that are available; the governance and applicability of options in different contexts; residual risk and Loss and Damage; the methods and tools that can be drawn on to support climate risk management planning and implementation; enabling conditions and drivers for adaptation; the role of monitoring and evaluation for integrated risk management and tracking progress, success and the risk of maladaptation; and finally, integration of risk management across sectors, jurisdictions and time horizons, under dynamic conditions of environmental and societal change.

'''Adaptation options for managing a wide range of climate risks have been proposed, planned or implemented across all sectors and regions, with prospects for wide-ranging benefits to nearly all people and ecosystems (''' '''''high confidence''''' [[#footnote-001|1]] ''').''' Many options are widely applicable and could be scaled up to reduce vulnerability or exposure for the majority of the world’s population and the ecosystems they depend on ( ''high confidence'' ). These include nature restoration ( ''high confidence'' ), changing diets and reducing food waste ( ''high confidence'' ), infrastructure retrofitting ( ''high confidence'' ), building codes ( ''medium confidence'' ), disaster early warning ( ''high confidence'' ) and cooperative governance ( ''medium confidence'' ). The portfolio of adaptation options that could be successfully implemented varies across locations, with resource-limited and conflict-affected contexts bearing large amounts of residual risk ( ''high confidence'' ) {17.2, 17.2.1, 17.5.1} .

'''The majority of climate risk management and adaptation currently being planned and implemented is incremental (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Transformational adaptation will become increasingly necessary at higher global warming levels (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''') but can be associated with significant and inequitable trade-offs (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Adaptations with some of the highest transformative potential include migration ( ''high confidence'' ), spatial planning ( ''medium confidence'' ), governance cooperation ( ''medium confidence'' ), universal access to health care ( ''medium confidence'' ) and changing food systems ( ''medium confidence'' ). Options that tend to modify existing systems incrementally include early-warning systems ( ''high confidence)'' , insurance ( ''medium confidence'' ) and improved water use efficiency ( ''high confidence'' ) {17.2, 17.5.1} .

'''Governance, especially when inclusive and context sensitive, is an important enabling condition for climate risk management and adaptation (''' '''''very high confidence''''' '''). The use of formal and informal governance approaches, often in polycentric arrangements of public, private and community actors, is being increasingly recognised as important across many decision-making settings (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Public governance leadership has the largest role for social safety nets, spatial planning and building codes ( ''high confidence'' ). Private sector governance is important for insurance and for minimising the stressors that can negatively impact ecosystems and their functions, especially in the absence of public regulations or enforcement ( ''medium confidence'' ). Communities and individuals play the largest role in governance of adaptations to farming and fishery practices and ecosystem-based adaptations ( ''medium confidence'' ). Informal or individual-led decision-making is more common in food security and livelihood-related adaptations, such as changes to diets, livelihood diversification and seasonal migration ( ''high confidence'' ). People who have experienced climate shocks are more likely to take on informal adaptation measures, and in places where people are more exposed to extreme events, autonomous adaptation is more common ( ''high confidence'' ) {17.2.1, 17.3.2, 17.4.2} .

'''National and international legal and policy frameworks and instruments support the planning and implementation of adaptation and climate risk management across scales, especially when combined with guidelines for action (''' '''''medium confidence''''' ''').''' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) have been drivers of national adaptation planning, with cascading effects on sectors and sub-national action, especially in developing countries ( ''high confidence'' ). Nearly all developing countries (particularly Small Island Developing States [SIDS]) that included an adaptation component in their NDCs consider adaptation the most urgent aspect of their national climate change response ( ''high confidence'' ). A steady increase in national and sub-national laws, policies and regulations that mandate reporting and risk disclosure has promoted adaptation response across public agencies, private firms and community organisations ( ''high confidence'' ). Greater adaptation is present where national climate laws and policies require adaptation action from lower levels of government and include guidelines on how to do so ( ''medium confidence'' ) {17.4.2} .

'''Recognition of the critical role of financing for adaptation and resilience as an important enabler for climate risk management has strengthened (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). Yet, since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the gap between the estimated costs of adaptation and the documented (tracked) finance allocated to adaptation has widened (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Estimated global and regional costs of adaptation vary widely due to differences in assumptions, methods and data; the majority of more recent estimates are higher than the figures presented in AR5 ( ''high confidence'' ). A high proportion of developing country NDC adaptation contributions are conditional on external financial support, emphasising the crucial role of international finance to achieving adaptation efforts commensurate with climate risks ( ''high confidence'' ). Developed country climate finance leveraged for developing countries for mitigation and adaptation has fallen short of the 100 USD billion yr −1 Copenhagen commitment for 2020 ( ''very high confidence'' ). Substantial opportunities exist for improving access to climate finance, as well as its impact and effectiveness {17.4.2; Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE in this Chapter} .

'''Private sector financing for adaptation has been increasingly promoted as a response to realised adaptation finance needs (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). However, private sector financing of adaptation has been limited, especially in developing countries (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Tracked private sector finance for climate change action has grown substantially since 2015, but the proportion directed towards adaptation has remained small ( ''high confidence'' ); in 2018, these contributions were 0.05% of total climate finance and 1% of adaptation finance. A key challenge for private sector financing of adaptation is demonstrating financial return on investment, as many benefits of adaptation arise as avoided damages or public goods, rather than direct revenue streams ( ''medium confidence'' ). Leveraging private finance in developing countries is often more difficult because of risk (perceived and real) to investors, reducing the pool of potential investors and/or raising the cost (interest) of investment ( ''medium confidence'' ) {17.4.3.; Cross-Chapter Box Finance in this Chapter} .

'''Information and knowledge on climate risk and adaptation options, derived from different knowledge systems, can support risk management and adaptation decisions (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Processes, such as co-production, that link scientific, Indigenous, local, practitioner and other forms of knowledge can make climate risk management processes and outcomes more effective and sustainable ( ''high confidence'' ) {17.3.2; 17.4.4} .

'''Climate services that provide reliable, relevant and usable climate information for the short or long term are increasingly being produced and used in climate risk management (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' In many regions and sectors, the utility of climate services is strengthened by sustained engagement between stakeholders and experts and by co-production ( ''medium confidence'' ). Significant gaps remain in the evaluation of climate services, and some studies indicate that climate services often do not reach the most vulnerable and more isolated people, maintaining or exacerbating inequality {17.4.4; Cross-Chapter Box Climate Services WGI Chapter 12} .

'''Catalysing conditions and windows of opportunity can drive shifts in motivation and adaptation effort, stimulating more rapid uptake of existing and new adaptation options (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). Decision makers can take advantage of windows of opportunity to promote rapid and effective responses in reactive and proactive cases.''' Disaster events or shocks such as wildfires, tropical cyclones, heatwaves or coral bleaching have catalysing characteristics ( ''high confidence'' ). Additional types of catalysing conditions include climate litigation and the presence of individuals and organisations that act as policy and decision innovators, including government and business innovators in cities ( ''medium confidence'' ), stimulating action within and beyond their immediate contexts ( ''medium confidence'' ). Litigation on failure of government and business to adapt is becoming more frequent and is expected to increase as climate impact attribution science matures further ( ''high confidence'' ) {Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in this Chapter; 17.4.5.2, 17.4.5.3} .

'''Urgency can stimulate prompt climate risk management (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''')''' . A moderate level of urgency contributes to enhanced climate action, while both high and low levels of urgency can impede response ( ''high confidence'' ). Well-designed communication strategies can move decision makers from low to moderate levels of urgency, stimulating action. As conditions approach a crisis state, however, urgency can weaken decision-making rather than support it ( ''medium confidence'' ) {17.4.5.1} .

'''Decision support tools and decision-analytic methods are available and are being applied for managing climate risks in varied contexts, including where deep uncertainty is present (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). These tools and methods have been shown to support deliberative processes where stakeholders jointly consider factors such as the rate and magnitude of change and their uncertainties, associated impacts and timescales of adaptation needed along multiple pathways and scenarios of future risks (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' However, comparative evidence on the relative utility of different analytical methods in their use by decision makers for managing climate risks is an important gap ( ''medium confidence'' ). Nevertheless, robust decision-making, using pathway analyses to determine ‘no regrets’ options among trade-offs, has been shown to be a useful starting point under deep uncertainty ( ''medium confidence'' ). Methods for analysing options differ across geo-political scales, with modelling studies being a particularly prominent method across scales from community and urban to regional and national ( ''high confidence'' ) {17.3.1, 17.3.2, 17.6, Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in this Chapter} .

'''Successful adaptation and maladaptation form the opposite poles of a continuum (''' '''''medium confidence''''' '''). The evaluation of an adaptation option and its location on this continuum are context specific and vary across time, place and evaluation perspectives (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' Despite knowledge gaps, adaptation options can be assessed according to several criteria, such as benefits to humans, benefits to ecosystem services, benefits to equity (marginalised ethnic groups, gender, low-income populations), transformational potential and contribution to greenhouse gas emission reduction ( ''medium confidence'' ). These factors can aid evaluation of co-benefits and trade-offs within and between adaptation responses ( ''high confidence'' ) facilitating successful adaptation and reducing the likelihood of maladaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ) {17.5.1, 17.5.2} .

'''Adaptation options across a range of climate risk settings (Representative Key Risks) have potential for some degree of maladaptation alongside varied potential for success (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Maladaptation can result from unaccounted trade-offs with low-income groups and the transformational potential of adaptation ( ''medium confidence'' ). Success is greatest when adaptation enhances gender equity ( ''medium confidence'' ) and supports ecosystem function and services ( ''medium confidence'' ). Among adaptation options, coastal infrastructure is an example that has particularly high risk for maladaptation through trade-offs for natural system functioning and human vulnerability over time. Examples of options with high potential for successful adaptation are nature restoration ( ''medium confidence'' ), social safety nets ( ''medium confidence'' ) and adaptations relating to changes of diets and reducing food waste ( ''medium confidence'' ) {17.5.2} .

'''Monitoring and evaluation (M&amp;E) are essential for tracking adaptation progress and learning about adaptation success and maladaptation (''' '''''high confidence''''' '''). M&amp;E application has increased since AR5 at the local, project and national level, but is still at an early stage in most countries (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''') and underutilised as a way to assess adaptation outcomes at longer time frames (''' '''''high confidence''''' ''').''' About one-third of countries have undertaken steps to develop national adaptation M&amp;E systems, but fewer than half of these are reporting on implementation ( ''medium confidence'' ). M&amp;E, as well as tracking global progress on adaptation, are confronted with a number of challenges ( ''high confidence'' ), such as a comparability in what counts as adaptation and limited availability of data across scales. The relative strength and weaknesses of different approaches and their applicability have not been systematically assessed, but the diversity of approaches being used could provide a more comprehensive assessment of global adaptation progress {17.5.2, Cross-Chapter Box PROGRESS in this Chapter} .

'''Understanding of residual impacts and risks in vulnerable regions and implications for Loss and Damage (L&amp;D) has become increasingly relevant as the limits to adaptation are projected to be reached in natural and human systems (''' '''''high confidence)''''' '''.''' The international L&amp;D policy debate has seen heightened attention, with some coalescence around key issues, including risk management, limits to adaptation, existential risk, finance and support, including liability, compensation and litigation. Advisory groups have been set up with participation of policy and experts from research, civil society and practice to inform debate. Yet, the policy space and concrete remit for L&amp;D has remained vague, which renders policy formulation complex ( ''high confidence'' ) {17.2.2.5; Cross-Chapter Box LOSS in this Chapter } .

'''Effective management of climate risks is dependent on systematically integrating adaptations across interacting climate risks, ensuring that measures of success include factors important to climate resilient development, and accounting for the dynamic nature of climate risks over time (''' '''''very high confidence''''' ''').''' Across the Working Group II report are examples of how managing adaptations to reduce climate risks can negatively or positively affect sustainable development, thereby impacting the potential for climate resilient development. Climate risks can emerge at different rates and time horizons, and the interactions between risks vary from region to region (very high confidence). The need to manage these risks in an integrated manner is demonstrated by the diverse and interacting impacts of climate risks on ecosystems, cities, health, and poverty and livelihoods, such as in the water–energy–food nexus (high confidence). Expertise and resources for integrated risk management vary between the developed and developing countries (high confidence). Integrated pathways for managing climate risks will be most suitable when ‘low regrets’ anticipatory options are established jointly across sectors in a timely manner, path dependencies are avoided in order to not limit future options for climate resilient development, and maladaptations across sectors are avoided (high confidence). National Adaptation Plans have potential to integrate participatory, iterative processes to monitor, review and update adaptations as knowledge, experience and resources become available {17.6; Cross-Chapter Box DEEP in this Chapter} .

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