Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-8 (section)

== 8.1 Introduction ==

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The impacts of climate change have already significantly affected livelihoods and living conditions, especially of the poorest and most vulnerable, and will continue to undermine development during the coming century. This chapter assesses the societal consequences of climate change and related hazards in terms of adverse and irreversible consequences for the most vulnerable. To understand societal consequences of climate change, we assess impacts through the perspective of vulnerability, poverty and livelihoods of people. We identify why climate events trigger sudden and slow-onset disasters, and how the most severe, acute and chronic impacts cause and deepen human suffering. We also examine issues of climate justice. Understanding and engaging with climate justice requires a plural focus on the historical social and institutional relations and inequalities that produce climate change, cause people to be vulnerable to climate hazards and shape responses to them ( [[#Newell--2021|Newell et al., 2021]] ). An assessment of observed impacts on the poorest and their strategies for adaptation carries important lessons for inclusive, broad-based solutions to climate change.

As a starting point, this chapter examines linkages between climate change, specific climate-related hazards and impacts on multidimensional poverty, vulnerability and livelihoods. Past assessments have identified the linkages between climate change, poverty, livelihoods and human vulnerability, and shown how climate change leads to differential consequences for different communities and populations. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) identified socially and geographically disadvantaged people exposed to persistent inequalities at the intersection of various dimensions of discrimination based on gender, age, ethnicity, class and caste ( [[#IPCC--2014a|IPCC, 2014a]] ). AR5 also showed evidence that climate change is a universal driver and multiplier of risk that shapes dynamic interactions between these factors. Climate change is one stressor that shapes dynamic and differential livelihood trajectories. Also, the IPCC Special 1.5°C Report (IPCC SR 1.5°C) underscored with ''very high confidence'' that global mean temperature, harm and human well-being losses are increasing substantially ( [[#Hoegh-Guldberg--2018|Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2018]] ; [[#Roy--2018|Roy et al., 2018]] ).

This chapter builds on this, examining equitable development, robust institutions and poverty reduction as essential inputs to societies’ capacity for adaptation (i.e., closes the adaptation gap) in order to avoid losses and damages (L&amp;Ds) from climate change. It assesses quantitative spatio-temporal information on human vulnerability at a global scale and for specific sub-regions, livelihood groups and communities at the local level. The chapter assesses the newest literature on how multidimensional poverty and human vulnerability to climate change is measured and also examined the agreement of different index systems in terms of global hotspots of human vulnerability.

In addition, the chapter explores how climate change affects different livelihoods and livelihood assets and also examines factors that characterise vulnerability to climate change, focusing on different dimensions of human vulnerability and its subsystems (e.g., access to infrastructure services). In this context the chapter also assesses quantitative data to map human vulnerability as well as economic and non-economic losses that are highly relevant for understanding adverse impacts of climate change.

The chapter assesses the newest scientific knowledge on how the most vulnerable and marginalised people are experiencing different climate-influenced hazards and changes, how these groups prepare for and adapt to these changes. Hence, it examines how climate change intersects with broader processes of development. It also considers the various impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of the poorest, the capabilities, assets and activities required for a means of living. It examines the institutional conditions that promote livelihood resilience in the face of climate change. Quantitative analysis and qualitative data on observed adverse climate change impacts and future projections and trends in vulnerability show that societal impacts of climate change cannot solely be explained by looking at temperature changes or climatic hazards alone.

The chapter provides due consideration of how societal impacts of climate change are emerging as a result of climatic changes, development and vulnerability. In this regard, it also explores how past and present conditions of poverty, inequality and vulnerability determine observed and future societal impacts of climate change, including future adaptive capacities of societies exposed to climate change. It highlights new entry points to address climate risks and adaptation needs through the targeted reduction of poverty, inequity and vulnerability, linking particularly global quantitative information with local livelihood-orientated qualitative information.

The chapter outlines new approaches for identifying social tipping points, meaning moments of rapid, destabilising change across scales that can complement the discussion about physical tipping points in the climate system. It also addresses new perspectives on the baselines for assessing future vulnerabilities, and the potential for irreversible losses, emphasising not only economic but also non-economic losses, which are linked to past and present development trajectories. There is ''robust evidence'' on non-economic losses, including the loss of land, livelihoods, social networks, cultural values and the irreversible degradation of ecosystem functions, as observed, for example, in parts of the Amazon. Non-economic losses are intertwined with economic losses to influence human health, nutrition, well-being and social stability, and therefore also influence present and future vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities. Non-economic losses from climate change disproportionately affect the poor. People in vulnerable situations are often disproportionately affected as they are less resilient and have less access to institutional support (including protection mechanisms) and coping strategies. This knowledge is key for informing integrated strategies for sustainable livelihood transitions and adaptation.

The chapter assesses newer literature about the synergies and trade-offs for the poorest and most vulnerable people and groups between adaptation–mitigation and sustainable development strategies, which societies must negotiate in order to pursue climate resilient development. It explores synergies and mismatches in key development sectors that the poorest rely on, including agriculture, forestry and energy. It identifies the development strategies, elements of institutional design and financial mechanisms that could support risk reduction and adaptation. Our assessment reveals that successful adaptation is not solely a question of levels of funding, but depends on broader institutional design that determine societal development and enabling conditions for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change. An assessment of enabling conditions for adaptation supports the finding that more convergent, integrated and comprehensive approaches to adaptation are needed. The chapter concludes that climate justice requires consideration of the legal, institutional and governance frameworks that significantly determine whether adaptation is successful in addressing the needs of the poor.

Thus, intersections between climate hazards and socioeconomic development are assessed from the point of view of vulnerability, poverty, livelihoods and inequality (see Figure 8.1). [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-8 Chapter 8] adopts this wider perspective to examine the differential nature of observed and future disproportionate vulnerabilities (i.e., who is most susceptible to climate hazards and events, where, at the core to understanding of what scale and why?), as well as the inequalities inherent in adaptation and mitigation solutions as part of a wider climate justice perspective adopted in Chapter 8, and challenges for climate resilient development.

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[[File:87d017c252e8cd07bc7a83bbab6a1d9d IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_8_001.png]]

'''Figure 8.1 |''' '''The lens of [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/chapter/chapter-8 Chapter 8] to better understand the human dimension of climate change at the nexus of climate change, climate hazards and socioeconomic development.'''

Finally, our assessment points towards the fact that human vulnerability to climate change is a complex and multifaceted phenomenon that is often influenced by historic development processes, such as structures that originated with colonisation. Also, recent global shocks not directly related to climate change, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and its socioeconomic consequences, impact climate vulnerability and inequitable impacts occurring between countries and within countries. Recent studies show that COVID-19, and other social, economic and political crises, have worsened the circumstances of the poor and further marginalised them.

Overall, the chapter is key in terms of understanding societal impacts of climate change and factors that determine the various differential adverse consequences of climate change on societies. The information presented and assessed is fundamental for informing adaptation and risk reduction strategies, since climatic information alone cannot explain sufficiently why some regions, societies or groups are suffering significantly more under climate change compared to others. Concepts such as vulnerability, intersectionality and climate justice provide important insights on how societal impacts of climate change are influenced and determined by broader societal development contexts.

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