Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-16 (section)

== 16.1 Introduction ==

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Technological change and innovation are considered key drivers of economic growth and social progress ( [[#Brandão%20Santana--2015|Brandão Santana et al. 2015]] ; [[#Heeks--2015|Heeks and Stanforth 2015]] ). Increased production and consumption of goods and services creates economic benefits through higher demands for improved technologies ( [[#Gossart--2015|Gossart 2015]] ). Since the Industrial Revolution, however, and notwithstanding the benefits, this production and consumption trend and the technological changes associated with it have also come at the cost of long-term damage to the life support systems of our planet ( [[#Alarcón--2015|Alarcón and Vos 2015]] ; [[#Steffen--2015|Steffen et al. 2015]] ). The significance of such impacts depends on the technology, but also on the intrinsic characteristics of the country or region analysed ( [[#Brandão%20Santana--2015|Brandão Santana et al. 2015]] ).

Other chapters in this volume have discussed technological change in various ways, including as a framing issue (Chapter 1), in the context of specific sectors (Chapters 6–11), for specific purposes (Chapter 12) and as a matter of policy, international cooperation and finance (Chapters 13–15). [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-2|Chapter 2]] discusses past trends in technological change and chapters 3 and 4 discuss it in the context of future modelling. In general, implicitly or explicitly, technological change is assigned an important role in climate change mitigation and achieving sustainable development ( [[#Thacker--2019|Thacker et al. 2019]] ), as also discussed in past IPCC reports ( [[#IPCC--2014|IPCC 2014]] , 2018a). [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/chapter-16 Chapter 16] describes how a well-established innovation system at a national level, guided by well-designed policies, can contribute to achieving mitigation and adaptation targets along with broader Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), while avoiding undesired consequences of technological change.

The environmental impacts of social and economic activities, including emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), are greatly influenced by the rate and direction of technological changes ( [[#Jaffe--2000|Jaffe et al. 2000]] ). Technological changes usually designed and used to increase productivity and reduce the use of natural resources can lead to increased production and consumption of goods and services through different rebound effects that diminish the potential benefits of reducing the pressure on the environment ( [[#Kemp--1990|Kemp and Soete 1990]] ; [[#Grübler--1998|Grübler 1998]] ; [[#Sorrell--2007|Sorrell 2007]] ; [[#Barker--2009|Barker et al. 2009]] ; [[#Gossart--2015|Gossart 2015]] ).

Those environmental impacts depend not only on which technologies are used, but also on how they are used ( [[#Grübler--1999a|Grübler et al. 1999a]] ). Technological change is not exogenous to social and economic systems; technologies are not conceived, selected, and applied autonomously ( [[#Grubler--2018|Grubler et al. 2018]] ). Underlying driving forces of the problem, such as more resource-intensive lifestyles and larger populations ( [[#Hertwich--2009|Hertwich and Peters 2009]] ; [[#UNEP--2014|UNEP 2014]] ), remain largely unchallenged. Comprehensive knowledge of the direct and indirect effects of technological changes on physical and social systems could improve decision-making, including in those cases where technological change mitigates environmental impacts.

A sustainable global future for people and nature requires rapid and transformative societal change by integrating technical, governance (including participation), financial and societal aspects of the solutions to be implemented ( [[#Sachs--2019|Sachs et al. 2019]] ; Pörtner et al. 2021). A growing body of interdisciplinary research from around the world can inform implementation of adaptive solutions that address the benefits and drawbacks of linkages in social-ecological complexity, including externalities and rebound effects from innovation and technological transformation ( [[#Balvanera--2017|Balvanera et al. 2017]] ; Pörtner et al. 2021).

Technological change and transitional knowledge can reinforce each other. The value of traditional wisdom and its technological practices provide examples of sustainable and adaptive systems that could potentially adapt to and mitigate climate change ( [[#Kuoljok--2019|Kuoljok 2019]] ; [[#Singh--2020|Singh et al. 2020]] ). Peasants and traditional farmers have been able to respond well to climate changes through their wisdom and traditional practices ( [[#Nicholls--2013|Nicholls and Alteri 2013]] ). The integration of the traditional wisdom with new technologies can offer new and effective solutions ( [[#Galloway%20McLean--2010|Galloway McLean 2010]] ).

Achieving climate change mitigation and other SDGs thus also requires rapid diffusion of knowledge and technological innovations. However, these are hampered by various barriers, some of which are illustrated in Table 16.1 ( [[#Markard--2020|Markard et al. 2020]] ).

'''Table 16.1 | Overview of challenges to accelerated diffusion of technological innovations.''' Source: based on [[#Markard--2020|Markard et al. (2020)]] .

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! Challenges

! Description

! Examples

|-
| Innovations in whole systems

| Since entire systems are changing, changes in system architecture are also needed, which may not keep pace.

| Decentralisation of electricity supply and integration of variable sources.

|-
| Interaction between multiple systems and subsystems

| Simultaneous, accelerating changes multiple systems or sectors, vying for the same resources and showing other interactions.

| Electrification of transport, heating and industry all using the same renewable electricity source.

|-
| Industry decline and incumbent resistance

| Decline of existing industries and businesses can lead to incumbents slowing down change, and resistance, e.g., from unions or workers.

| Traditional car industry leading to facture closures, demise of coal mining and coal-fired power generation leading to local job loss.

|-
| Consumers and social practices

| Consumers need to change practices and demand patterns.

| Reduced car ownership in a sharing economy, trip planning for public and non-motorised transport, fuelling practices in electric driving.

|-
| Coordination in governance and policy

| Increasing complexity of governance requires coordination between multiple levels of government and a multitude of actors relevant to the transition, e.g., communities, financial institutions, private sector.

| Multilevel governance between European Commission and member states in Energy Union package.

|}

The literature has been growing rapidly over the past decades on how, in a systemic way, the barriers to sustainability transition can be overcome in various circumstances. A central element is that national systems of innovation can help achieve both climate change goals and SDGs, by integrating new ideas, devices, resources, new and traditional knowledge, and technological changes for more effective and adaptive solutions ( [[#Lundvall--1992|Lundvall 1992]] ). At the organisational level, innovation is seen as a process that can bring value by means of creating more effective products, services, processes, technologies, policies and business models that are applicable to commercial, business, financial and even societal or political organisations ( [[#Brooks--1980|Brooks 1980]] ; [[#Arthur--2009|Arthur 2009]] ).

The literature refers to the terms ‘technology push‘, ‘market pull‘, ‘regulatory push-pull‘, and ‘firm specific factors‘ as drivers for innovation, mostly to inform policymakers ( [[#Zubeltzu-Jaka--2018|Zubeltzu-Jaka et al. 2018]] ). There has also been growing interest in social drivers, motivated by the recognition of social issues, such as unemployment and public health, linked to the deployment of innovative low-carbon technologies ( [[#Altantsetseg--2020|Altantsetseg et al. 2020]] ). Policy and social factors and the diverse trajectories of innovation are influenced by regional and national conditions ( [[#Tariq--2017|Tariq et al. 2017]] ), and such local needs and purposes need to be considered in crafting international policies aimed at fostering the global transition towards increased sustainability ( [[#Caravella--2020|Caravella and Crespi 2020]] ). From this standpoint, a multidimensional, multi-actor, systemic innovation approach would be needed to enhance global innovation diffusion ( [[#de%20Jesus--2018|de Jesus and Mendonça 2018]] ), especially if this is to lead to overall sustainability improvements rather than result in new sustainability challenges.

Policies to mitigate climate change do not always take into account the effects of mitigation technologies on other environmental and social challenges ( [[#Arvesen--2011|Arvesen et al. 2011]] ). Policies also often disregard the strong linkages between technological innovation and social innovation; the latter is understood to be the use of soft technologies that brings about transformation through establishing new institutions, new practices, and new models to create a positive societal impact, characterised by collaboration that crosses traditional roles and boundaries, between citizens, civil society, the state, and the private sector ( [[#Reynolds--2017|Reynolds et al. 2017]] ). Market forces do not provide sufficient incentives for investment in development or diffusion of technologies, leaving a role for public policy to create the conditions to assure a systemic innovation approach ( [[#Popp--2010|Popp 2010]] ; [[#Popp--2012|Popp and Newell 2012]] ). Moreover, public action is more than just addressing market failure, it is an unalienable element of an innovation system ( [[#Mazzucato--2013|Mazzucato 2013]] ).

Coupling technological innovation with sustainable development and the SDGs would need to address overall social, environmental, and economic consequences, given that public policy is intertwined with innovation, technological changes and other factors in a complex manner. [https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/chapter/chapter-16 Chapter 16] is organised in the following manner to provide an overview of innovation and technology development and transfer for climate change and sustainable development.

[[#16.2|Section 16.2]] discusses drivers of innovation process, including macro factors that can redirect technological change towards low-carbon options. Representations of these drivers in mathematical and statistical models allow for explaining the past and constructing projections of future technological change. They also integrate the analysis of drivers and consequences of technological change within economic-energy-economy (or integrated assessment) models (Chapter 3). The section also describes the different phases of innovation and metrics, such as the widely used but also criticised technology readiness levels (TRLs).

[[#16.3|Section 16.3]] discusses innovation as a systemic process based on recent literature. While the innovation process is often stylised as a linear process, innovation is now predominantly seen as a systemic process in that it is a result of actions by, and interactions among, a large set of actors, whose activities are shaped by, and shape, the context in which they operate and the user group with which they are engaging.

[[#16.4|Section 16.4]] presents innovation and technology policy, including technology push (e.g., publicly funded R&amp;D) and demand-pull (e.g., governmental procurement programmes) instruments that address potential market failures related to innovation and technology diffusion. The section also assesses the cost-effectiveness of innovation policies as well as other policy assessment criteria introduced in Chapter 13.

[[#16.5|Section 16.5]] assesses the role of international cooperation in technology development and transfer, in particular the mechanisms established under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), but also other international initiatives for technology cooperation. The discussion on international cooperation includes information exchange, research, development and demonstration cooperation, access to financial instruments, intellectual property rights, as well as promotion of domestic capacities and capacity building.

[[#16.6|Section 16.6]] describes the role of technology in sustainable development, including unintended effects of technological changes, and synthesises the chapter.

Finally, [[#16.7|Section 16.7]] discusses gaps in knowledge emerging from this chapter.

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