Editing IPCC:AR6/SRCCL/Chapter-6 (section)

==== 6.3.2.2 Integrated response options based on value chain management ====

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In this section, the impacts on climate change adaptation of integrated response options based on value chain management are assessed.

''Integrated response options based on value chain management through demand management''

Decreases in pressure on land and decreases in production intensity associated with sustainable healthy diets or reduced food waste could also benefit adaptation; however, the size of this effect is not well quantified (Muller et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r447|447]]</sup> ).

Reducing food waste losses can relieve pressure on the global freshwater resource, thereby aiding adaptation. Food losses account for 215 km3 yr–1 of freshwater resources, which Kummu et al. (2012) <sup>[[#fn:r448|448]]</sup> report to be about 12–15% of the global consumptive water use.

Given that 35% of the global population is living under high water stress or shortage (Kummu et al. 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r449|449]]</sup> ), reducing food waste could benefit 320–400 million people (12–15% of the 2681 million people affected by water stress/shortage).

While no studies report quantitative estimates of the effect of material substitution on adaptation, the effects are expected to be similar to reforestation and afforestation if the amount of material substitution leads to an increase in forest area. Additionally, some studies indicate that wooden buildings, if properly constructed, could reduce fire risk, compared to steel, which softens when burned (Gustavsson et al. 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r450|450]]</sup> ; Ramage et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r451|451]]</sup> ).

Table 6.26 summarises the impacts on adaptation of demand management options, with confidence estimates based on the thresholds outlined in Table 6.53 in Section 6.3.6, and indicative (not exhaustive) references upon which the evidence in based.

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Integrated response options based on value chain management through supply management

It is estimated that 500 million smallholder farmers depend on agricultural businesses in developing countries (IFAD 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r452|452]]</sup> ), meaning that better promotion of value-added products and improved efficiency and sustainability of food processing and retailing could potentially help up to 500 million people to adapt to climate change. However, figures on how sustainable sourcing in general could help farmers and forest management is mostly unquantified. More than 1 million farmers have currently been certified through various schemes (Tayleur et al. 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r453|453]]</sup> ), but how much this has helped them prepare for adaptation is unknown.

Management of supply chains has the potential to reduce vulnerability to price volatility. Consumers in lower-income countries are most affected by price volatility, with sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia at highest risk (Regmi and Meade 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r454|454]]</sup> ; Fujimori et al. 2019 <sup>[[#fn:r455|455]]</sup> ). However, understanding of the stability of food supply is one of the weakest links in global food system research (Wheeler and von Braun 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r456|456]]</sup> ) as instability is driven by a confluence of factors (Headey and Fan 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r457|457]]</sup> ). Food price spikes in 2007 increased the number of people below the poverty line by between 100 million people (Ivanic and Martin 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r458|458]]</sup> ) and 450 million people (Brinkman et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r459|459]]</sup> ), and caused welfare losses of 3% or more for poor households in many countries (Zezza et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r460|460]]</sup> ). Food price stabilisation by China, India and Indonesia alone in 2007/2008 led to reduced staple food price for 2 billion people (Timmer 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r461|461]]</sup> ). Presumably, spending less on food frees up money for other activities, including adaptation, but it is unknown how much (Zezza et al. 2009 <sup>[[#fn:r462|462]]</sup> ; Ziervogel and Ericksen 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r463|463]]</sup> ). In one example, reduction in staple food price costs to consumers in Bangladesh from food stability policies saved rural households 887 million USD2003 total (Torlesse et al. 2003 <sup>[[#fn:r464|464]]</sup> ). Food supply stability through improved supply chains also potentially reduces conflicts (by avoiding food price riots, which occurred in countries with over 100 million total in population in 2007/2008), and thus increases adaptation capacity (Raleigh et al. 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r465|465]]</sup> ).

There are no global estimates of the contribution of improved food transport and distribution, or of urban food systems, in contributing to adaptation, but since the urban population in 2018 was 4.2 billion people, this sets the upper limit on those who could benefit.

Given that 65% (760 million) of working adults in poverty make a living through agriculture, increased energy efficiency in agriculture could benefit these 760 million people.

Table 6.27 summarises the impacts on adaptation of supply management options, with confidence estimates based on the thresholds outlined in Table 6.53 in Section 6.3.6, and indicative (not exhaustive) references upon which the evidence in based.

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