Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13 (section)

=== 13.3.2 Solution Space and Adaptation Options ===

<div id="h2-9-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div>

Autonomous species adaptation, via range shifts towards higher latitudes and altitudes and changes in phenology, but also extirpation, have been documented in all European regions ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.8). Lowering vulnerability by reducing other anthropogenic impacts ( [[#Gillingham--2015|Gillingham et al., 2015]] ), such as land-use change, habitat fragmentation ( [[#Eigenbrod--2015|Eigenbrod et al., 2015]] ; [[#Oliver--2017|Oliver et al., 2017]] ; [[#Wessely--2017|Wessely et al., 2017]] ), pollution and deforestation (Chapter 2), enhances adaptation capacity and biodiversity conservation ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Ockendon--2018|Ockendon et al., 2018]] ). Protected areas, such as the EU Natura 2000 network, have contributed to biodiversity protection ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Gaüzère--2016|Gaüzère et al., 2016]] ; [[#Sanderson--2016|Sanderson et al., 2016]] ; [[#Santini--2016|Santini et al., 2016]] ; [[#Hermoso--2018|Hermoso et al., 2018]] ), but 60% of terrestrial species at these sites could lose suitable climate niches at 4°C GWL (Figure Box 13.1.1; [[#EEA--2017a|EEA, 2017a]] ).

Most protected areas are static and thus do not take species migration into consideration ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Gillingham--2015|Gillingham et al., 2015]] ; [[#Heikkinen--2020b|Heikkinen et al., 2020b]] ). More dynamic areas of protection, such as networks of protected areas with corridors, buffer zones and zoning, can facilitate population shifts ( [[#Barredo--2016|Barredo et al., 2016]] ; [[#Nila--2019|Nila et al., 2019]] ; [[#Crick--2020|Crick et al., 2020]] ; [[#Keeley--2021|Keeley et al., 2021]] ) and thereby reduce but not eliminate vulnerability ( [[#Wessely--2017|Wessely et al., 2017]] ; [[#Pavón-Jordán--2020|Pavón-Jordán et al., 2020]] ).

Rehabilitation and restoration of land ( [[#Prober--2019|Prober et al., 2019]] ), particularly abandoned agricultural areas in SEU and NEU ( [[#Terres--2015|Terres et al., 2015]] ), are long-term strategies to improve regulating services and enhance biodiversity conservation ( [[#Morecroft--2019|Morecroft et al., 2019]] ; [[#Campos--2021|Campos et al., 2021]] ). Their success will depend on consideration of the future climate niche when restoring peatlands ( [[#Bellis--2021|Bellis et al., 2021]] ) or long-lived species with limited mobility ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hazarika--2021|Hazarika et al., 2021]] ). The combination of supporting the resilience of species, increasing functional diversity of habitats and assisting the migration of species at the limit of their adaptive capacity ( [[#Park--2018|Park and Talbot, 2018]] ) is needed to protect and restore ecosystems (e.g., forests) ( [[#Boiffin--2017|Boiffin et al., 2017]] ; [[#Messier--2019|Messier et al., 2019]] ). Successful interventions consider habitat and the ecological and evolution interactions of species ( [[#Šeho--2019|Šeho et al., 2019]] ; [[#Diallo--2021|Diallo et al., 2021]] ) combined with monitoring to assess their effectiveness ( [[#Casazza--2021|Casazza et al., 2021]] ).

Fire management plans and programmes are in place in most of SEU and increasingly developed in the parts of Europe where wildfires are less common ( [[#Fernandez-Anez--2021|Fernandez-Anez et al., 2021]] ). The capacity to implement and maintain these options remains limited, however ( ''medium confidence'' ). The dominant fire management paradigm of fire suppression in some regions of SEU has been questioned, as it contributes to fuel accumulation. Approaches are advocated which combine fire-risk mitigation, prevention and preparation ( [[#Moreira--2020|Moreira et al., 2020]] ), recovery through post-fire management ( [[#Lucas-Borja--2021|Lucas-Borja et al., 2021]] ) and diverse fuel treatment ( [[#Mirra--2017|Mirra et al., 2017]] ), including prescribed burning ( [[#Fernandes--2013|Fernandes et al., 2013]] ).

Ecosystem-based adaptations (EbA) and NbS that restore or recreate ecosystems, build resilience and produce synergies with adaptation and mitigation in other sectors are increasingly used in Europe ( ''high confidence'' ) (Cross-Chapter Box NATURAL in Chapter 2; [[#Berry--2015|Berry et al., 2015]] ; [[#Chausson--2020|Chausson et al., 2020]] ). Planting trees or recreating wetlands can function as part of natural flood management ( [[#Dadson--2017|Dadson et al., 2017]] ; [[#Cooper--2021|Cooper et al., 2021]] ), while urban green infrastructure can reduce flooding ( [[#13.2.2|Section 13.2.2]] ) and heat stress as well as provide recreation opportunities and health benefits ( [[#13.6.2.3|Section 13.6.2.3]] ; see Box 13.3; [[#Kabisch--2016|Kabisch et al., 2016]] ; [[#Choi--2021|Choi et al., 2021]] ).

Appropriately implemented ecosystem-based mitigation, such as reforestation with climate-resilient native species ( [[#13.3.1.4|Section 13.3.1.4]] ), peatland and wetland restoration, and agroecology ( [[#13.5.2|Section 13.5.2]] ), can enhance carbon sequestration or storage ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Seddon--2020|Seddon et al., 2020]] ). Salt marsh protection or recreation can increase carbon storage capacity, enhance coastal flood protection and provide cultural services ( [[#Beaumont--2014|Beaumont et al., 2014]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ). Trade-offs between ecosystem protection, their services and human adaptation and mitigation needs can generate challenges, such as loss of habitats, increased emissions from restored wetlands ( [[#Günther--2020|Günther et al., 2020]] ) and conflicts between carbon capture services, and provisioning of bioenergy, food, timber and water ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Lee--2019|Lee et al., 2019]] ; [[#Krause--2020|Krause et al., 2020]] ).

The solution space for responding to climate-change risks for terrestrial ecosystems has increased in parts of Europe ( ''medium confidence'' ). For example, EbA and NbS figure prominently in the EU Adaptation Strategy (2021a) and climate-change adaptation is mainstreamed in the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 (European Comission, 2020), the EU Forest Strategy for 2030 (European Comission, 2021b), the EU Green Infrastructure Strategy (European Comission, 2013), as well as several national and regional policies. Yet, in the northern parts of EEU and NEU (e.g., Greenland, Iceland, northwest Russian Arctic), areas which are often sites of pronounced biodiversity shifts and changes, solutions are lacking or slow in emergence, due to remoteness, lack of resources and sparse populations ( [[#Canosa--2020|Canosa et al., 2020]] ). In the EU, innovative financing schemes, such as the Natural Capital Financing Facility, are being explored by the European Investment Bank and the European Commission which supports projects delivering on biodiversity and climate adaptation through tailored loans and investments. Multiple EU-level service platforms have been promoted to track climate-change impacts on land ecosystems and adaptation (e.g., Climate-Adapt, Copernicus Land and Fire Monitoring Service, Forest Information System of Europe) ( [[#13.11.1|Section 13.11.1]] ).

Despite an expanding solution space, widespread implementation and monitoring of natural and planned adaptation across Europe is currently limited, due to high management costs, undervaluation of nature, and conservation laws and regulations that do not consider species shifts under future socioeconomic and climatic changes ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Kabisch--2016|Kabisch et al., 2016]] ; [[#Prober--2019|Prober et al., 2019]] ; [[#Fernandez-Anez--2021|Fernandez-Anez et al., 2021]] ). Climate risks are not perceived as urgent due to a continuing perception of the high adaptive capacity of ecosystems ( [[#Uggla--2016|Uggla and Lidskog, 2016]] ; [[#Esteve--2018|Esteve et al., 2018]] ; [[#Vulturius--2018|Vulturius et al., 2018]] ). Limited financial resources prevent widespread implementation of large-scale and connected conservation areas ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Hermoso--2017|Hermoso et al., 2017]] ; [[#Lee--2019|Lee et al., 2019]] ; [[#Krause--2020|Krause et al., 2020]] ). Particularly in WCE, competition for land use with other functions, including mitigation options, is a critical barrier to implementation of adaptation. Risks to terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems are rarely integrated into regional and local land-use planning, land development plans, and agro-system management ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Nila--2019|Nila et al., 2019]] ; [[#Heikkinen--2020a|Heikkinen et al., 2020a]] ).

<div id="13.3.3" class="h2-container"></div>

<span id="knowledge-gaps-1"></span>