Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-16 (section)

==== 16.2.3.5 Temperature-Related Mortality ====

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There is nearly universal evidence that non-optimal ambient temperatures increase mortality ( ''high confidence'' ), with notable heterogeneity only in the shape of the temperature–mortality relationship across geographical regions but often sharply growing relative risks at the outer 5% of the local historical temperature distributions ( [[#Gasparrini--2015|Gasparrini et al., 2015]] ; [[#Guo--2018|Guo et al., 2018]] ; [[#Carleton--2020|Carleton et al., 2020]] ; [[#Zhao--2021|Zhao et al., 2021]] ; see ‘Other societal impacts—Heat-related mortality’, Table SM16.23). Significant advances have been made since AR5 regarding the analysis of temperature-related excess mortality in previously under-researched regions, such as developing countries and (sub)tropical climates (e.g South-East Asia: [[#Dang--2016|Dang et al., 2016]] ; [[#Ingole--2017|Ingole et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mazdiyasni--2017|Mazdiyasni et al., 2017]] ; South Africa: [[#Wichmann--2017|Wichmann, 2017]] , [[#Scovronick--2018|Scovronick et al., 2018]] ; the Middle East: [[#Alahmad--2019|Alahmad et al., 2019]] , [[#Gholampour--2019|Gholampour et al., 2019]] ; and Latin America: [[#Péres--2020|Péres et al., 2020]] ). Progress has also been made with regard to temporal changes in temperature-related excess mortality and underlying population vulnerability over time. Heat-attributable mortality fractions have declined over time in most countries owing to general improvements in health care systems, increasing prevalence of residential air conditioning, and behavioural changes. These factors, which determine the susceptibility of the population to heat, have predominated over the influence of temperature change (see ‘Other societal impacts—Heat-related mortality’, Table SM16.22, [[#De’Donato--2015|De’Donato et al., 2015]] ; [[#Arbuthnott--2016|Arbuthnott et al., 2016]] ; [[#Vicedo-Cabrera--2018a|Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018a]] ). Important exceptions exist, for example, where unprecedented heatwaves have occurred recently. No conclusive evidence emerges regarding recent temporal trends in excess mortality attributable to cold exposure ( [[#Vicedo-Cabrera--2018b|Vicedo-Cabrera et al., 2018b]] ). Quantitative detection and attribution studies of temperature-related mortality are still rare. One study (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021), using data from 43 countries, found that 37% (range 20.5–76.3%) of average warm-season heat-related mortality during recent decades can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change ( ''medium confidence'' , see ‘Other societal impacts—Heat-related mortality’, Table SM16.22). Studying excess mortality associated with past heatwaves, such as the 2003 or 2018 events in Europe, even higher proportions of deaths attributable to anthropogenic climate change have been reported for France and the UK ( [[#Mitchell--2016|Mitchell et al., 2016]] ; [[#Clarke--2021|Clarke et al., 2021]] ). Formal attribution studies encompassing cold-related mortality are quasi non-existent. The very few studies from Europe and Australia ( [[#Christidis--2010|Christidis et al., 2010]] ; [[#Åström--2013|Åström et al., 2013]] ; [[#Bennett--2014|Bennett et al., 2014]] ) find weak impacts of climate change on cold-associated excess mortality, with contradictory outcomes both towards higher and lower risks ( ''low confidence'' , see ‘Other societal impacts—Heat-related mortality’, Table SM16.22).

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