Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-5 (section)

==== 5.4.3.4 Observed and projected impacts on cultural ecosystem service ====

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Cultural ecosystem services (CES) are those non-material benefits, such as aesthetic experiences, recreation, spiritual enrichment, social relations, cultural identity, knowledge and other values ( [[#Millennium%20Ecosystem%20Assessment--2005|Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005]] ), which support physical and mental health and human well-being ( [[#Chan--2012|Chan et al., 2012]] ; [[#Triguero-Mas--2015|Triguero-Mas et al., 2015]] ). CES in agricultural and wild landscapes include recreational activities, access to wild or cultivated products, and cultural foods, spiritual rituals, heritage and memory dimensions, and aesthetic experiences ( [[#Daugstad--2006|Daugstad et al., 2006]] ; [[#Calvet-Mir--2012|Calvet-Mir et al., 2012]] ; [[#Ruoso--2015|Ruoso et al., 2015]] ). Relative to other ecosystem services, CES in agricultural landscapes have been less researched ( [[#Merlín-Uribe--2012|Merlín-Uribe et al., 2012]] ; [[#Milcu--2013|Milcu et al., 2013]] ; [[#Bernues--2014|Bernues et al., 2014]] ; [[#Plieninger--2014|Plieninger et al., 2014]] ; [[#van%20Berkel--2014|van Berkel and Verburg, 2014]] ; [[#Ruoso--2015|Ruoso et al., 2015]] ; [[#Quintas-Soriano--2016|Quintas-Soriano et al., 2016]] ). Agricultural heritage is a key aspect of CES and plays an important role in maintaining agrobiodiversity ( [[#Hanaček--2018|Hanaček and Rodríguez-Labajos, 2018]] ).

Climate change is projected to have negative impacts on CES ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Table 5.4). There is limited evidence that climate change has been the main driver affecting CES of agroecosystems confounded by other drivers such as migration and changing farming patterns ( [[#Hanaček--2018|Hanaček and Rodríguez-Labajos, 2018]] ; [[#Dhakal--2019|Dhakal and Kattel, 2019]] ). Recent studies observed declines in CES in alpine pastures and floodplains in Europe in part due to climate change impacts ( [[#Probstl-Haider--2016|Probstl-Haider et al., 2016]] ; [[#Schirpke--2019|Schirpke et al., 2019]] ). Another study estimated that the scenic beauty enjoyed by those who visit the vineyards in central Chile will decline by 18–28% by 2050 owing to a combination of reduced precipitation, increased temperatures and natural fire cycles ( [[#Martinez-Harms--2017|Martinez-Harms et al., 2017]] ). More research is needed, however, particularly on cultural heritage and spiritually significant places and in low-income countries.

'''Table 5.4 |''' Projected impacts on CES from climate change.

{| class="wikitable"
|-
! '''Region'''

! '''CES'''

! '''Climate change scenario'''

! '''Projected impacts from climate change'''

! '''References'''

|-
| Central Chile, South America

| Aesthetic experience of scenic beauty in vine-growing region.

| RCP2.6 and 8.5.

| Increased temperature, reduced precipitation and increased fires will damage scenic beauty of vineyards. Participatory scenario analysis estimated reduction in aesthetic experience from scenic beauty by 18–28% by 2050 for RCP2.6, with greater impacts under RCP8.5.

| [[#Martinez-Harms--2017|Martinez-Harms et al. (2017)]]

|-
| Mountainous regions of Austria

| Cultural and aesthetic experiences in alpine pastures and diverse agricultural landscapes.

| Temperature +1.5°C from 2008 to 2040 and four precipitation scenarios (high, similar '','' seasonal shift and low).

| Some decline in CES, with trade-offs between diversity and CES and provisioning services depending upon the scenario.

| [[#Kirchner--2015|Kirchner et al. (2015)]]

|-
| Forest and agricultural landscapes in southern Saxony-Anhalt in Germany

| Recreation, scenic landscape beauty and spiritual value of agricultural landscapes and forests.

| Regional scenarios, do not specify RCPs.

| Not anticipated to be significantly changed by climate change under most scenarios, except for intensification scenario, which would lead to a decline in the forest cultural services as they provide important historical and cultural ties.

| Gorn et al. (2018)

|-
| Northeast Austria floodplains (grasslands and wetlands)

| Tourism, recreation, cultural heritage.

| Increased temperature by 2050 and 2100 and seasonal shifts in precipitation.

| Increased agricultural intensification due to shifts in climate and decline in CES is predicted, based on farmer interviews.

| [[#Probstl-Haider--2016|Probstl-Haider et al. (2016)]]

|-
| Mount Kenya, Kenya

| Tourism, recreation, spiritual and cultural values.

| Not specified.

| Glacier disappearance may lead to reduced mountain trekking and other tourism and recreational activities.

| [[#Evaristus--2014|Evaristus (2014)]]

|-
| Philippines

| Nature-based tourism in agri-tourism.

| Not specified.

| Risk of typhoon, drought and strong wind, grass fire, heavy rains. Anticipated to increase vulnerability in terms of human health services and energy use in tourism.

| [[#Hidalgo--2015|Hidalgo (2015)]]

|}

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'''Box 5.2: Case Study: Wine'''
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Wine-growing regions cover 7.4 million ha, with a value of 35 billion USD in 2018 (OIV, 2019). Important regions (Italy, France, Spain, USA, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, Chile, Germany, China, Argentina) are located in areas where mean annual temperature roughly varies between 10°C and 20°C ( [[#Schultz--2010|Schultz and Jones, 2010]] ; [[#Mosedale--2016|Mosedale et al., 2016]] ).

Temperature is the primary determinant for vine development. Recent warming trends have advanced flowering, maturity and harvest ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Koufos--2014|Koufos et al., 2014]] ; [[#Cook--2016|Cook and Wolkovich, 2016]] ; [[#Hall--2016|Hall et al., 2016]] ; [[#Ruml--2016|Ruml et al., 2016]] ; [[#van%20Leeuwen--2017|van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017]] ; [[#Koufos--2020|Koufos et al., 2020]] ; [[#Wang--2020b|Wang et al., 2020b]] ; Wang and Li, 2020), and wine-growing regions have expanded outside the normal temperature bounds of locally grown varieties ( ''limited evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ) ( [[#Kryza--2015|Kryza et al., 2015]] ; [[#Irimia--2018|Irimia et al., 2018]] ). Milder winters have affected harvest in ice-wine growing regions ( [[#Pickering--2015|Pickering et al., 2015]] ). Higher temperatures have mixed effects depending on site, but generally decrease grape quality ( [[#Barnuud--2014|Barnuud et al., 2014]] ; [[#Morales--2014|Morales et al., 2014]] ; [[#Sweetman--2014|Sweetman et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kizildeniz--2015|Kizildeniz et al., 2015]] ; [[#Kizildeniz--2018|Kizildeniz et al., 2018]] ). Warming increases sugar accumulation and decreases acidity ( [[#Leolini--2019|Leolini et al., 2019]] ). Secondary metabolites are negatively affected ( [[#Biasi--2019|Biasi et al., 2019]] ; [[#Teslić--2019|Teslić et al., 2019]] ). Developmental phases are projected to proceed faster in response to warming ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Fraga--2016a|Fraga et al., 2016a]] ; [[#Fraga--2016b|Fraga et al., 2016b]] ; [[#García%20de%20Cortázar-Atauri--2017|García de Cortázar-Atauri et al., 2017]] ; [[#Costa--2019|Costa et al., 2019]] ; [[#Molitor--2019|Molitor and Junk, 2019]] ; Sánchez, 2019). However extreme high temperatures may have inhibitory effects on development ( [[#Cuccia--2014|Cuccia et al., 2014]] ).

In some cases, irrigation is required, and more frequent droughts are a key concern for yield and fruit quality ( [[#Morales--2014|Morales et al., 2014]] ; [[#Bonada--2015|Bonada et al., 2015]] ; [[#Kizildeniz--2015|Kizildeniz et al., 2015]] ; Salazar-Parra, 2015; [[#Kizildeniz--2018|Kizildeniz et al., 2018]] ; [[#Funes--2020|Funes et al., 2020]] ). Water stress reduces shoot growth and berry size, and increases tannin and anthocyanin content ( [[#van%20Leeuwen--2016|van Leeuwen and Darriet, 2016]] ). However, controlled water stress produces positive impacts on wine quality, increasing skin phenolic compounds ( [[#van%20Leeuwen--2017|van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017]] ). The level of stress will depend on soil type, texture and organic matter content ( [[#Fraga--2016a|Fraga et al., 2016a]] ; [[#Fraga--2016b|Fraga et al., 2016b]] ; Bonfante, 2017; [[#García%20de%20Cortázar-Atauri--2017|García de Cortázar-Atauri et al., 2017]] ; [[#Leibar--2017|Leibar et al., 2017]] ; [[#Costa--2019|Costa et al., 2019]] ; [[#Molitor--2019|Molitor and Junk, 2019]] ; Sánchez, 2019). Increases in water demands with potential negative effects from increased soil salinity are among the most common effects of climate change in irrigated regions ( ''medium evidence'' , ''high agreement'' ) ( [[#Mirás-Avalos--2018|Mirás-Avalos et al., 2018]] ; [[#Phogat--2018|Phogat et al., 2018]] ).

Rising CO 2 will have mixed effects on vine growth and quality ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ) ( [[#Martínez-Lüscher--2016|Martínez-Lüscher et al., 2016]] ; [[#Edwards--2017|Edwards et al., 2017]] ; [[#van%20Leeuwen--2017|van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017]] ). Rising CO 2 concentrations will negatively affect wine quality by reducing anthocyanin concentration and colour intensity ( [[#Leibar--2017|Leibar et al., 2017]] ).

Suitability responses to warming are region-specific. In regions where low temperature is a limiting factor, warming will enable growers to grow a wider range of varieties and obtain better-quality wines ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Fuhrer--2014|Fuhrer et al., 2014]] ; [[#Mosedale--2015|Mosedale et al., 2015]] ; [[#Mosedale--2016|Mosedale et al., 2016]] ; [[#Meier--2018|Meier et al., 2018]] ; [[#Jobin%20Poirier--2019|Jobin Poirier et al., 2019]] ; [[#Maciejczak--2019|Maciejczak and Mikiciuk, 2019]] ). Subtropical and Mediterranean regions will experience major declines in fruit quality for high-quality wines ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Resco--2016|Resco et al., 2016]] ; [[#Lazoglou--2018|Lazoglou et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cardell--2019|Cardell et al., 2019]] ; [[#Fraga--2019a|Fraga et al., 2019a]] ; [[#Fraga--2019b|Fraga et al., 2019b]] ; [[#Teslić--2019|Teslić et al., 2019]] ). These changes will also affect wine tourism ( [[#Nunes--2016|Nunes and Loureiro, 2016]] ).

Impacts on suitability may reshape the geographical distribution of wine regions. Viability of the wine-growing regions will depend on the knowledge of local climatic variability ( [[#Neethling--2019|Neethling et al., 2019]] ; [[#Rességuier--2020|Rességuier et al., 2020]] ) and the implementation of adaptation strategies such as use of adapted plant material rootstocks, cultivars and clones, viticultural techniques (e.g., changing trunk height, leaf area to fruit weight ratio, timing of pruning), irrigation, enological interventions to control alcohol and acidity, and policy incentives and support (Callen et al., 2016; [[#Ollat--2016|Ollat and Leeuwen, 2016]] ; [[#van%20Leeuwen--2017|van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017]] ; [[#Merloni--2018|Merloni et al., 2018]] ; [[#Alikadic--2019|Alikadic et al., 2019]] ; [[#del%20Pozo--2019|del Pozo et al., 2019]] ; [[#Fraga--2019b|Fraga et al., 2019b]] ; [[#Santillan--2019|Santillan et al., 2019]] ; [[#Morales-Castilla--2020|Morales-Castilla et al., 2020]] ; [[#Marín--2021|Marín et al., 2021]] ).

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'''Box 5.3: Pollinators'''
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Climate change will reduce the effectiveness of pollinator agents as species are lost from certain areas, or the coordination of pollinator activity and flower receptiveness is disrupted in some regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Potts--2010|Potts et al., 2010]] ; [[#Gonzalez-Varo--2013|Gonzalez-Varo et al., 2013]] ; [[#Polce--2014|Polce et al., 2014]] ; [[#Kerr--2015|Kerr et al., 2015]] ; [[#Potts--2016|Potts et al., 2016]] ; [[#Settele--2016|Settele et al., 2016]] ; [[#Giannini--2017|Giannini et al., 2017]] ; [[#Mbow--2019|Mbow et al., 2019]] ). A modelling study estimates that complete removal of pollinators could reduce global fruit supply by 23%, vegetables by 16%, and nuts and seeds by 22%, leading to significant increases in nutrient-deficient population and malnutrition-related diseases ( [[#Smith--2015|Smith and Haddad, 2015]] ), highlighting the importance of this ecosystem service for human health.

Bees are an essential agricultural pollinator, widely recognised for their role in the fertilisation of many domesticated plants. The observed widespread decline in native bees and honeybee colony numbers, particularly in the USA and Europe, has been associated with a number of environmental stressors in addition to climate change, such as neonicotinoids and varroa mites, and has raised concerns regarding plant–pollinator networks, the stability of pollination services, global food production and the prevalence of malnutrition ( [[#Williams--2009|Williams and Osborne, 2009]] ; [[#Potts--2010|Potts et al., 2010]] ; [[#Chaplin-Kramer--2014|Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2014]] ).

Any climatic influence on floral phenology or physiology could, potentially, alter bee biology. At present, there is evidence that climate-change-induced asynchrony in pollen and pollinators can occur ( [[#Stemkovski--2020|Stemkovski et al., 2020]] ). In addition, the nutritional composition of floral pollen may also affect bees’ health at the global level ( ''low evidence'' ). For example, goldenrod ( ''Solidago'' spp.), a ubiquitous pollen source for bees just prior to winter, has experienced a ~30% drop in protein since the onset of CO 2 emissions from the industrial revolution ( [[#Ziska--2016|Ziska et al., 2016]] ).

Climate extremes could pose risks to pollinators when species tolerance is exceeded, with subsequent reduction in populations and potential extirpation ( [[#Nicholson--2020|Nicholson and Egan, 2020]] ; [[#Soroye--2020|Soroye et al., 2020]] ). The rate of climate change may induce potential mismatches in the timing of flowering and pollinator activity depending on the species ( [[#Bartomeus--2011|Bartomeus et al., 2011]] ). For instance, Miller-Struttmann (2015) showed that long-tongued bumblebees may be at a disadvantage as warming temperatures are reducing their floral hosts, making generalist bumblebees more successful.

Overall, there is ''medium confidence'' that long-term mutualisms may be impacted directly by CO 2 increases in terms of nutrition, or by temperature and other climatic shifts that may alter floral emergence relative to pollinator life cycles. Additional research is needed to further our understanding of the biological basis for these effects, and their consequence for pollination services.

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Box 5.3

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'''Box 5.4: Soil Health'''
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Soil health, defined as an integrative property that reflects the capacity of soil to respond to land management, continues to support provisioning ecosystem services ( [[#Kibblewhite--2008|Kibblewhite et al., 2008]] ). Climate change will have significant impacts on soil health indicators such as soil organic matter (SOM). For example, precipitation extremes can reduce soil biological functions, and increase surface flooding, waterlogging, soil erosion and susceptibility to salinisation ( [[#Herbert--2015|Herbert et al., 2015]] ; [[#Chen--2018|Chen and Mueller, 2018]] ; [[#Akter--2019|Akter et al., 2019]] ; Sánchez- [[#Rodríguez--2019|Rodríguez et al., 2019]] ).

The most significant threat to soil health is the loss of SOM ( [[#FAO%20and%20ITPS--2015|FAO and ITPS, 2015]] ). SOM holds a great proportion of the nutrients, and regulates important soil physical, chemical and biological processes, such as cation exchange capacity, pH buffering, soil structure, water-holding capacity and microbial activity ( [[#FAO%20and%20ITPS--2015|FAO and ITPS, 2015]] ). Soils also hold the largest terrestrial organic carbon stock, three to four times greater than the atmosphere ( [[#Stoorvogel--2017|Stoorvogel et al., 2017]] ). At the global scale, climate and vegetation are the main drivers of soil organic carbon (SOC) storage ( [[#Wiesmeier--2019|Wiesmeier et al., 2019]] ). While organic matter input is the primary driver of SOC stocks ( [[#Fujisaki--2018|Fujisaki et al., 2018]] ), temperature and soil moisture play a key role in SOC storage at the local scale ( [[#Carvalhais--2014|Carvalhais et al., 2014]] ; [[#Doetterl--2015|Doetterl et al., 2015]] ). Soil type, land use and management practices also play important roles at the local scale.

Increase in soil temperature will negatively impact SOC, but primarily in higher latitudes ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Carey--2016|Carey et al., 2016]] ; [[#Qi--2016|Qi et al., 2016]] ; [[#Feng--2017|Feng et al., 2017]] ; [[#Gregorich--2017|Gregorich et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hicks%20Pries--2017|Hicks Pries et al., 2017]] ; [[#Melillo--2017|Melillo et al., 2017]] ; [[#Hicks%20Pries--2018|Hicks Pries et al., 2018]] ). Experiments have shown that warming can accelerate litter mass loss and soil respiration ( [[#Lu--2013|Lu et al., 2013]] ) and reduces the soil recalcitrant C pool ( [[#Chen--2020|Chen et al., 2020]] ). SOC losses may speed up soil structural degradation, changes in soil stoichiometry and function ( [[#Hakkenberg--2008|Hakkenberg et al., 2008]] ; [[#Tamene--2019|Tamene et al., 2019]] ), with downstream effects on aquatic ecosystems. The rate and extent of SOC losses vary greatly depending on the scale of measurement (local to global), soil properties, climate, land use and management practices ( [[#Sanderman--2017|Sanderman et al., 2017]] ; [[#Wiesmeier--2019|Wiesmeier et al., 2019]] ).

Adoption of practices that build SOC can improve crop resilience to climate-change-related stresses such as agricultural drought. [[#Iizumi--2019|Iizumi and Wagai (2019)]] found that a relatively small increase in topsoil (0–30 cm) SOC could reduce drought damages to crops over 70% of the global harvested area. The effects of increasing SOC are more positive in drylands owing to more efficient use of rainwater, which can increase drought tolerance ( [[#Iizumi--2019|Iizumi and Wagai, 2019]] ). Similarly, [[#Sun--2020|Sun et al. (2020)]] found that, relative to local conventional tillage, conservation agriculture has a win-win outcome of enhanced C sequestration and increased crop yield in arid regions. However, the impact of no-till may be minimal if not supplemented with residue cover and cover crops. As such, this is a highly debated area where some authors argue that no-till has limited effect and the evidence outside drylands is weak. Furthermore, the use of crop residues is constrained by its alternative uses (e.g., fuel, livestock feed, etc.) in much of the developing world. Practices that build up SOC may encourage soil microbial populations, which in turn can increase yield stability under drought conditions ( [[#Prudent--2020|Prudent et al., 2020]] ).

Soil C sequestration is an important strategy to improve crop and livestock production sustainably that could be applied at large scales and at a low cost, if there was adequate institutional support and labour, using agroforestry, conservation agriculture, mixed cropping and targeted application of fertilizer and compost ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Paustian--2016|Paustian et al., 2016]] ; [[#Kongsager--2018|Kongsager, 2018]] ; [[#Nath--2018|Nath et al., 2018]] ; [[#Woolf--2018|Woolf et al., 2018]] ; [[#Corbeels--2019|Corbeels et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kuyah--2019|Kuyah et al., 2019]] ; [[#Corbeels--2020|Corbeels et al., 2020]] ; [[#Muchane--2020|Muchane et al., 2020]] ; [[#Sun--2020|Sun et al., 2020]] ; [[#Nath--2021|Nath et al., 2021]] ). For example, a widespread adoption of agroforestry, conservation agriculture, mixed cropping and balanced application of fertilizer and compost by India’s small landholders could increase annual C sequestration by 70–130 Tg CO 2 e ( [[#Nath--2018|Nath et al., 2018]] ; [[#Nath--2021|Nath et al., 2021]] ).

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