Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-12 (section)

==== 12.4.3.2 Emerging Foods and Production Technologies ====

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A diverse range of novel food products and production systems are emerging, that are proposed to reduce GHG emissions from food production, mainly by replacing conventional animal-source food with alternative protein sources. Assessments of the potential of dietary changes are given in Sections 5.3 and 7.4. Here, we assess the GHG intensities of emerging food production technologies. This includes products such as insects, algae, mussels and products from bio-refineries, some of which have been consumed in certain societies and/or in smaller quantities ( [[#Pikaar--2018|Pikaar et al. 2018]] ; [[#Jönsson--2019|Jönsson et al. 2019]] ; [[#Govorushko--2019|Govorushko 2019]] ; [[#Raheem--2019a|Raheem et al. 2019a]] ; [[#Souza%20Filho--2019|Souza Filho et al. 2019]] ). The novel aspect considered here is the scale at which they are proposed to replace conventional food with the aim to reduce both negative health and environmental impacts. To fully realise the health benefits, dietary shifts should also encompass a reduction in consumption of added sugars, salt, saturated fats, and potentially harmful additives ( [[#Curtain--2019|Curtain and Grafenauer 2019]] ; [[#Fardet--2019|Fardet and Rock 2019]] ; [[#Petersen--2021|Petersen et al. 2021]] ).

Meat analogues have attracted substantial venture capital, and production costs have dropped considerably in the last decade, with some reaching market maturity ( [[#Mouat--2018|Mouat and Prince 2018]] ; [[#Santo--2020|Santo et al. 2020]] ), but there is uncertainty whether they will ‘disrupt’ the food market or remain niche products. According to [[#Kumar--2017|Kumar et al. (2017)]] , the demand for plant-based meat analogues is expected to increase as their production is relatively cheap and they satisfy consumer demands with regard to health and environmental concerns as well as ethical and religious requirements. Consumer acceptance is still low for some options, especially insects ( [[#Aiking--2019|Aiking and de Boer 2019]] ) and cultured meat ( [[#Chriki--2020|Chriki and Hocquette 2020]] ; [[#Siegrist--2020|Siegrist and Hartmann 2020]] ).

'''Insects:''' Farmed edible insects have a higher feed conversion ratio than other animals farmed for food, and have short reproduction periods with high biomass production rates ( [[#Halloran--2016|Halloran et al. 2016]] ). Insects have good nutritional qualities ( [[#Parodi--2018|Parodi et al. 2018]] ). They are suited as a protein source for both humans and livestock, with high protein content and favourable fatty acid composition ( [[#Fasolin--2019|Fasolin et al. 2019]] ; [[#Raheem--2019b|Raheem et al. 2019b]] ). If used as feed, they can grow on food waste and manure; if used as food, food safety concerns and regulations can restrict the use of manure ( [[#Raheem--2019b|Raheem et al. 2019b]] ) or food waste ( [[#Varelas--2019|Varelas 2019]] ) as growing substrates, and the dangers of pathogenic or toxigenic microorganisms and incidences of anti-microbial resistance need to be managed ( [[#Garofalo--2019|Garofalo et al. 2019]] ).

'''Algae and bivalves''' have a high protein content and a favourable nutrient profile and can play a role in providing sustainable food. Bivalves are high in omega-3 fatty acids and vitamin B12 and therefore well suited as replacement of conventional meats, and have a lower GHG footprint ( [[#Parodi--2018|Parodi et al. 2018]] ; [[#Willer--2020|Willer and Aldridge 2020]] ). Micro- and macro algae are rich in omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids, anti-oxidants and vitamins ( [[#Parodi--2018|Parodi et al. 2018]] ; [[#Peñalver--2020|Peñalver et al. 2020]] ; [[#Torres-Tiji--2020|Torres-Tiji et al. 2020]] ). [[#Kim--2019|Kim et al. (2019)]] show that diets with modest amounts of animals low on the food chain such as forage fish, bivalves, or insects have similar GHG intensities to vegan diets. Algae and bi-valves can be used to filter nutrients from waters, though care is required to avoid accumulation of hazardous substances ( [[#Gentry--2020|Gentry et al. 2020]] ; [[#Willer--2020|Willer and Aldridge 2020]] ).

'''Plant-based meat, milk and egg analogues:''' Demand for plant-based proteins is increasing and incentivising the development of protein crop varieties with improved agronomic performance and/or nutritional quality ( [[#Santo--2020|Santo et al. 2020]] ). There is also an emerging market for meat replacements based on plant proteins, such as pulses, cereals, soya, algae and other ingredients mainly used to imitate the taste, texture and nutritional profiles of animal-source food ( [[#Kumar--2017|Kumar et al. 2017]] ; [[#Boukid--2021|Boukid 2021]] ). Currently, the majority of plant-based meat analogues is based on soy ( [[#Semba--2021|Semba et al. 2021]] ). While other products still serve a niche market, their share is growing rapidly and some studies project a sizeable share within a decade ( [[#Kumar--2017|Kumar et al. 2017]] ; [[#Jönsson--2019|Jönsson et al. 2019]] ). In particular, plant-based milk alternatives have seen large increases in market share ( [[#Jönsson--2019|Jönsson et al. 2019]] ). A LCA of 56 plant-based meat analogues showed mean GHG intensities (farm to factory) of 0.21–0.23 kgCO 2 -eq per 100 g of product or 20 g of protein for all assessed protein sources ( [[#Fresán--2019|Fresán et al. 2019]] ). Higher footprints were found in the meta-review by [[#Santo--2020|Santo et al. (2020)]] . Including preparation, Meija et al. (2019) found higher emissions for burgers and sausages as compared to minced products.

'''Cellular agriculture:''' The use of fungi, algae and bacteria is an old process (beer, bread, yoghurt) and serves, among others, for the preservation of products. The concept of cellular agriculture ( [[#Mattick--2018|Mattick 2018]] ) covers bio-technological processes that use micro-organisms to produce acellular (fermentation-based cellular agriculture) or cellular products. Yeasts, fungi or bacteria can synthesise acellular products such as haem, milk and egg proteins, or protein-rich animal feed, other food ingredients, and pharmaceutical and material products ( [[#Rischer--2020|Rischer et al. 2020]] ; [[#Mendly-Zambo--2021|Mendly-Zambo et al. 2021]] ). Cellular products include cell tissues such as muscle cells to grow cultured meat, fish or other cells ( [[#Post--2012|Post 2012]] ; [[#Rischer--2020|Rischer et al. 2020]] ) and products where the micro-organisms will be eaten themselves ( [[#Pikaar--2018|Pikaar et al. 2018]] ; [[#Sillman--2019|Sillman et al. 2019]] ; [[#Schade--2020|Schade et al. 2020]] ). Single cell proteins, combined with photovoltaic electricity generation and direct air capture of carbon dioxide, are proposed as highly land- and energy-efficient alternatives to plant-based protein ( [[#Leger--2021|Leger et al. 2021]] ). Some microbial proteins are produced in a ‘bioreactor’ and use Haber-Bosch nitrogen and vegetable sugars or atmospheric CO 2 as source of nitrogen and carbon ( [[#Pikaar--2018|Pikaar et al. 2018]] ; [[#Simsa--2019|Simsa et al. 2019]] ). Cultured meat is currently at the research stage and some challenges remain, such as the need for animal-based ingredients to ensure fast and effective growth of muscle cells; tissue engineering to create different meat products; production at scale and at competitive costs; and regulatory barriers ( [[#Post--2012|Post 2012]] ; [[#Stephens--2018|Stephens et al. 2018]] ; [[#Rubio--2019|Rubio et al. 2019]] ; [[#Tuomisto--2019|Tuomisto 2019]] ; [[#Post--2020|Post et al. 2020]] ). Only a few studies to date have quantified the GHG emissions of microbial proteins or cultured meat, suggesting GHG emissions at the level of poultry meat ( [[#Tuomisto--2011|Tuomisto and Teixeira de Mattos 2011]] ; [[#Mattick--2015|Mattick et al. 2015]] ; [[#Souza%20Filho--2019|Souza Filho et al. 2019]] ; [[#Tuomisto--2019|Tuomisto 2019]] ).

A review of LCA studies on different plant-based, animal source and nine ‘future food’ protein sources ( [[#Parodi--2018|Parodi et al. 2018]] ) concluded that insects, macro-algae, mussels, mycoproteins and cultured meat show similar GHG intensities per unit of protein (mean values ranging 0.3–3.1 kgCO 2 -eq per 100 g protein), comparable to milk, eggs, and tuna (mean values ranging 1.2–5.4 kgCO 2 -eq per 100 g protein); while ''chlorella'' and ''spirulina'' consume more energy per unit of protein and were associated with higher GHG emissions (mean values ranging 11–13 kgCO 2 -eq per 100 g protein). As the main source of GHG emissions from insects and cellular agriculture foods is energy consumption, their GHG intensity improves with increased use of low-carbon energy ( [[#Smetana--2015|Smetana et al. 2015]] ; [[#Parodi--2018|Parodi et al. 2018]] ; [[#Pikaar--2018|Pikaar et al. 2018]] ).

Future foods offer other benefits such as lower land requirements, controlled systems with reduced losses of water and nutrients, increased resilience, and possibly reduced hazards from pesticide and antibiotics use and zoonotic diseases, although more research is needed including on allergenic and other safety aspects, and possibly reduced protein bioavailability ( [[#Alexander--2017|Alexander et al. 2017]] ; [[#Parodi--2018|Parodi et al. 2018]] ; [[#Stephens--2018|Stephens et al. 2018]] ; [[#Fasolin--2019|Fasolin et al. 2019]] ; [[#Chriki--2020|Chriki and Hocquette 2020]] ; [[#Santo--2020|Santo et al. 2020]] ; [[#Hadi--2021|Hadi and Brightwell 2021]] ; [[#Tzachor--2021|Tzachor et al. 2021]] ) ( ''medium evidence, high agreement'' ). Research is needed also on the effect of processing ( [[#Wickramasinghe--2021|Wickramasinghe et al. 2021]] ), though a randomised crossover trial comparing appetising plant foods with meat alternatives found several beneficial and no adverse effects from the consumption of the plant-based meats (Crimarco et al. 2020).

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