Editing IPCC:AR6/SYR/Longer-Report (section)

=== 4.2 Benefits of Strengthening Near-Term Action ===

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'''Accelerated implementation of adaptation will improve well-being by reducing losses and damages, especially for vulnerable populations. Deep, rapid, and sustained mitigation actions would reduce future adaptation costs and losses and damages, enhance sustainable development co-benefits, avoid locking-in emission sources, and reduce stranded assets and irreversible climate changes. These near-term actions involve higher up-front investments and disruptive changes, which can be moderated by a range of enabling conditions and removal or reduction of barriers to feasibility. ( '''''high confidence''''' )'''

'''Accelerated implementation of adaptation responses will bring benefits to human well-being''' '''''(''''' '''''high confidence) (Section 4.3).''''' As adaptation options often have long implementation times, long-term planning and accelerated implementation, particularly in this decade, is important to close adaptation gaps, recognising that constraints remain for some regions. The benefits to vulnerable populations would be high (see [[#4.4|Section 4.4]] ). ''(high confidence)'' { ''WGI SPM B.1, WGI SPMB.1.3, WGI SPM B.2.2, WGI SPM B.3; WGII SPM C.1.1, WGII SPM C.1.2, WGII SPM C.2, WGII SPM C.3.1, WGII Figure SPM.4b; SROCC SPM C.3.4, SROCC Figure 3.4, SROCC Figure SPM.5'' }

'''Near-term actions that limit global warming to close to 1.5°C would substantially reduce projected losses and damages related to climate change in human systems and ecosystems, compared to higher warming levels, but cannot eliminate them all (''' '''''very high confidence)''''' '''''.''''' The magnitude and rate of climate change and associated risks depend strongly on near-term mitigation and adaptation actions, and projected adverse impacts and related losses and damages escalate with every increment of global warming. ( ''very high confidence'' ). Delayed mitigation action will further increase global warming which will decrease the effectiveness of many adaptation options, including Ecosystem-based Adaptation and many water-related options, as well as increasing mitigation feasibility risks, such as for options based on ecosystems ( ''high confidence'' ). Comprehensive, effective, and innovative responses integrating adaptation and mitigation can harness synergies and reduce trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation, as well as in meeting requirements for financing ( ''very high confidence'' ). (see Section 4.5, 4.6, 4.8 and 4.9). { ''WGII SPM B.3, WGII SPM B.4, WGII SPM B.6.2, WGII SPM C.2, WGII SPM C.3, WGII SPM D.1, WGII SPM D.4.3, WGII SPM D.5,'' . ''WGII TS D.1.4, WGII TS.D.5, WGII TS D.7.5; WGIII SPM B.6.3,WGIII SPM B.6.4, WGIII SPM C.9, WGIII SPM D.2, WGIII SPM E.13; SR1.5 SPM C.2.7, SR1.5 D.1.3, SR1.5 D.5.2'' }

'''Mitigation actions will hav e other sustainable development co- benefits''' '''''(''''' '''''high confidence).''''' Mitigation will improve air quality and human health in the near term notably because many air pollutants are co-emitted by GHG emitting sectors and because methane emissions leads to surface ozone formation ( ''high confidence'' ). The benefits from air quality improvement include prevention of air pollution-related premature deaths, chronic diseases and damages to ecosystems and crops. The economic benefits for human health from air quality improvement arising from mitigation action can be of the same order of magnitude as mitigation costs, and potentially even larger ( ''medium confidence'' ). As methane has a short lifetime but is a potent GHG, strong, rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions can limit near-term warming and improve air quality by reducing global surface ozone. ( ''high confidence'' ). { ''WGI SPM D.1.7, WGI SPM D.2.2, WGI 6.7, WGI TS Box TS.7, WGI 6 Box 6.2, WGI Figure 6.3, WGI Figure 6.16, WGI Figure 6.17; WGII TS.D.8.3, WGII Cross-Chapter Box HEALTH, WGII 5 ES, WGII 7 ES; WGII 7.3.1.2; WGIII Figure SPM.8, WGIII SPM C.2.3, WGIII SPM C.4.2, WGIII TS.4.2'' }

'''Challenges from delayed adaptation and mitigation actions include the risk of cost escalation, lock-in of infrastructure, stranded assets, and reduced feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation options (''' '''''high confidence)''''' '''. The continued installation of unabated fossil fuel''' [[#footnote-009|148]] infrastructure will ‘lock-in’ GHG emissions ( '''''high confidence).''''' Limiting global warming to 2°C or below will leave a substantial amount of fossil fuels unburned and could strand considerable fossil fuel infrastructure ( ''high confidence'' ), with globally discounted value projected to be around USD 1 to 4 trillion from 2015 to 2050 ( ''medium confidence'' ). Early actions would limit the size of these stranded assets, whereas delayed actions with continued investments in unabated high-emitting infrastructure and limited development and deployment of low-emitting alternatives prior to 2030 would raise future stranded assets to the higher end of the range – thereby acting as barriers and increasing political economy feasibility risks that may jeopardise efforts to limit global warming. ( ''high confidence'' ). { ''WGIII SPM B.6.3, WGIII SPM C.4, WGIII Box TS.8'' }

'''Scaling-up near-term climate actions (Section 4.1) will mobilise a mix of low-cost and high-cost options.''' High-cost options, as in energy and infrastructure, are needed to avoid future lock-ins, foster innovation and initiate transformational changes (Figure 4.4). Climate resilient development pathways in support of sustainable development for all are shaped by equity, and social and climate justice ( ''very high confidence'' ). Embedding effective and equitable adaptation and mitigation in development planning can reduce vulnerability, conserve and restore ecosystems, and enable climate resilient development. This is especially challenging in localities with persistent development gaps and limited resources. ( ''high confidence'' ) { ''WGII SPM C.5, WGII SPM D1; WGIII TS.5.2, WGIII 8.3.1, WGIII 8.3.4, WGIII 8.4.1, WGIII 8.6'' }

'''Scaling-up climate action may generate disruptive changes in economic structure with distributional consequences and need to reconcile divergent interests, values and worldviews, within and between countries.''' Deeper fiscal, financial, institutional and regulatory reforms can offset such adverse effects and unlock mitigation potentials. Societal choices and actions implemented in this decade will determine the extent to which medium and long-term development pathways will deliver higher or lower climate resilient development outcomes. ( ''high confidence'' ). { ''WGII SPM D.2, WGII SPM D.5, WGII Box TS.8; WGIII SPM D.3, WGIII SPM E.2, WGIII SPM E.3, WGIII SPM E.4, WGIII TS.2, WGIII TS.4.1, WGIII TS.6.4, WGIII 15.2, WGIII 15.6'' }

'''Enabling conditions would need to be strengthened in the near-term and barriers reduced or removed to realise opportunities for deep and rapid adaptation and mitigation actions and climate resilient development (''' '''''high confidence) (Figure 4.2).''''' These enabling conditions are differentiated by national, regional and local circumstances and geographies, according to capabilities, and include: equity and inclusion in climate action (see [[#4.4|Section 4.4]] ), rapid and far-reaching transitions in sectors and system (see Section 4.5), measures to achieve synergies and reduce trade-offs with sustainable development goals (see [[#4.6|Section 4.6]] ), governance and policy improvements (see Section 4.7), access to finance, improved international cooperation and technology improvements (see Section 4.8), and integration of near-term actions across sectors, systems and regions (see Section 4.9). { ''WGII SPM D.2; WGIII SPM E.1, WGIII SPM E.2'' }

'''Barriers to feasibility would need to be reduced or removed to deploy mitigation and adaptation options at scale.''' Many limits to feasibility and effectiveness of responses can be overcome by addressing a range of barriers, including economic, technological, institutional, social, environmental and geophysical barriers. The feasibility and effectiveness of options increase with integrated, multi-sectoral solutions that differentiate responses based on climate risk, cut across systems and address social inequities. Strengthened near-term actions in modelled cost-effective pathways that limit global warming to 2°C or lower, reduce the overall risk to the feasibility of the system transitions, compared to modelled pathways with delayed or uncoordinated action. ( ''high confidence'' ). { ''WGII SPM C.2, WGII SPM C.3, WGII SPM C.5; WGIII SPM E.1, WGIII SPM E.1.3'' }

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'''Figure 4.2: The illustrative development pathways (red to green) and associated outcomes (right panel) show that there is a rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.''' Climate resilient development is the process of implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation measures to support sustainable development. Diverging pathways illustrate that interacting choices and actions made by diverse government, private sector and civil society actors can advance climate resilient development, shift pathways towards sustainability, and enable lower emissions and adaptation. Diverse knowledges and values include cultural values, Indigenous Knowledge, local knowledge, and scientific knowledge. Climatic and non-climatic events, such as droughts, floods or pandemics, pose more severe shocks to pathways with lower climate resilient development (red to yellow) than to pathways with higher climate resilient development (green). There are limits to adaptation and adaptive capacity for some human and natural systems at global warming of 1.5°C, and with every increment of warming, losses and damages will increase. The development pathways taken by countries at all stages of economic development impact GHG emissions and hence shape mitigation challenges and opportunities, which vary across countries and regions. Pathways and opportunities for action are shaped by previous actions (or inactions and opportunities missed, dashed pathway), and enabling and constraining conditions (left panel), and take place in the context of climate risks, adaptation limits and development gaps. The longer emissions reductions are delayed, the fewer effective adaptation options.. { ''WGI SPM B.1; WGII SPM B.1 to B.5, WGII SPM C.2 to 5, WGII SPM D.1 to 5, WGII Figure SPM.3, WGII Figure SPM.4, WGII Figure SPM.5, WGII TS.D.5, WGII 3.1, WGII 3.2, WGII 3.4, WGII 4.2, WGII Figure 4.4, WGII 4.5, WGII 4.6, WGII 4.9; WGIII SPM A, WGIII SPM B1, WGIII SPM B.3, WGIII SPM B.6, WGIII SPM C.4, WGIII SPM D1 to 3, WGIII SPM E.1, WGIII SPM E.2, WGIII SPM E.4, WGIII SPM E.5, WGIII Figure TS.1, WGIII Figure TS.7, WGIII Box TS.3, WGIII Box TS.8, Cross-Working Group Box 1 in Chapter 3, WGIII Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 4; SR1.5 SPM D.1 to 6; SRCCL SPM D.3'' }

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'''Integrating ambitious climate actions with macroeconomic policies under global uncertainty would provide benefits (''' '''''high confidence).''''' This encompasses three main directions: (a) economy-wide mainstreaming packages supporting options to improved sustainable low-emission economic recovery, development and job creation programs (Sections 4.4, 4.5, 4.6, 4.8, 4.9) (b) safety nets and social protection in the transition ( [[#4.4|Section 4.4]] , 4.7); and (c) broadened access to finance, technology and capacity-building and coordinated support to low-emission infrastructure (‘leap-frog’ potential), especially in developing regions, and under debt stress. ( ''high confidence'' ). (Section 4.8) { ''WGII SPM C.2, WGII SPM C.4.1, WGII SPM D.1.3,'' . ''WGII SPM D.2, WGII SPM D.3.2, WGII SPM E.2.2, WGII SPM E.4, WGII SPM TS.2, WGII SPM TS.5.2, WGII TS.6.4, WGII TS.15, WGII TS Box TS.3; WGIII SPM B.4.2, WGIII SPM C.5.4, WGIII SPM C.6.2, WGIII SPM C.12.2, WGIII SPM D.3.4, WGIII SPM E.4.2, WGIII SPM E.4.5, WGIII SPM E.5.2, WGIII SPM E.5.3, WGIII TS.1, WGIII Box TS.15,'' . ''WGIII 15.2, WGIII Cross-Chapter Box 1 on COVID in Chapter 1'' }

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