Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-2 (section)

=== 2.5.1 Technological Change Has Reduced Emissions ===

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Technological change that facilitates efficient energy utilisation from production to its final conversion into end-use services is a critical driver of carbon emissions reductions ( ''high confidence'' ). Technological change can facilitate stringent mitigation, but it can also reduce these effects by changing consumer behaviour, such as through rebound effects ( [[#2.6|Section 2.6]] and Chapter 16). AR6 includes an entire chapter on innovation, technology development, and transfer (Chapter 16). A focus gained in this section is the extent to which aligned, credible, and durable policies can accelerate technological change factors to put emissions reductions on a trajectory compatible with reaching United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) goals.

Technological change has facilitated the provision of more diverse and efficient energy services (heating, cooling, lighting, and mobility) while generating fewer emissions per unit of service. As seen in [[#2.4|Section 2.4]] , in Kaya identity terms ( [[#Lima--2016|Lima et al. 2016]] ) (see ‘Kaya identity’ in Glossary): population and economic growth are factors that have increased emissions, while technological change has reduced emissions (Peters et al. 2017). These Kaya statistics show that, while technological change can facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy, it needs to proceed at a much faster pace than historical trends (Peters et al. 2017).

Multiple challenges exist in accelerating the past rate of technological change. First, an array of physical assets in the energy system are long-lived and thus involve substantial committed carbon ( [[#2.7|Section 2.7]] ) ( [[#Knapp--1999|Knapp 1999]] ; [[#Cui--2019|Cui et al. 2019]] ). A process of ‘exnovation’, accelerating the phase-out of incumbent technology through intentional policy (such as by pricing carbon), provides a means to address long lifetimes ( [[#Davidson--2019|Davidson 2019]] ; [[#Rosenbloom--2020|Rosenbloom and Rinscheid 2020]] ). Second, countries may not have the capacity to absorb the flows of ideas and research results from international knowledge spillovers due to weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities (Chapter 15, [[IPCC:Wg3:Chapter:Chapter-15#15.5|Section 15.5]] ), and other barriers to technology transfer ( [[#Adenle--2015|Adenle et al. 2015]] ). In a developing country context, processes of innovation and diffusion need to include competence-building systems ( [[#Lema--2015|Lema et al. 2015]] ; [[#Perrot--2018|Perrot and Sanni 2018]] ; [[#Stender--2020|Stender et al. 2020]] ). Third, public policy is central to stimulating technological change to reduce emissions; policy depends on creating credible expectations of future market opportunities ( [[#Alkemade--2012|Alkemade and Suurs 2012]] ), but the historical evidence shows that, despite recent progress, policies related to energy and climate over the long term have been inconsistent ( [[#Taylor--2012|Taylor 2012]] ; [[#Nemet--2013|Nemet et al. 2013]] ; [[#Koch--2016|Koch et al. 2016]] ). Bolstering the credibility and durability of policies related to low-carbon technology are crucial to accelerating technological change and inducing the private sector investment required ( [[#Helm--2003|Helm et al. 2003]] ; Habermacher et al. 2020).

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