Editing IPCC:AR6/SR15/Chapter-1 (section)

=== 1.4.3 Transformation, Transformation Pathways, and Transition: Evaluating Trade-Offs and Synergies Between Mitigation, Adaptation and Sustainable Development Goals ===

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Embedded in the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C is the opportunity for intentional societal transformation (see Box 1.1 on the Anthropocene). The form and process of transformation are varied and multifaceted (Pelling, 2011; O’Brien et al., 2012; O’Brien and Selboe, 2015; Pelling et al., 2015) <sup>[[#fn:r261|261]]</sup> . Fundamental elements of 1.5°C-related transformation include a decoupling of economic growth from energy demand and CO <sub>2</sub> emissions; leap-frogging development to new and emerging low-carbon, zero-carbon and carbon-negative technologies; and synergistically linking climate mitigation and adaptation to global scale trends (e.g., global trade and urbanization) that will enhance the prospects for effective climate action, as well as enhanced poverty reduction and greater equity (Tschakert et al., 2013; Rogelj et al., 2015; Patterson et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r262|262]]</sup> (Chapters 4 and 5). The connection between transformative climate action and sustainable development illustrates a complex coupling of systems that have important spatial and time scale lag effects and implications for process and procedural equity, including intergenerational equity and for non-human species (Cross-Chapter Box 4 in this chapter, Chapter 5). Adaptation and mitigation transition pathways highlight the importance of cultural norms and values, sector-specific context, and proximate (i.e., occurrence of an extreme event) drivers that when acting together enhance the conditions for societal transformation (Solecki et al., 2017; Rosenzweig et al., 2018) <sup>[[#fn:r263|263]]</sup> (Chapters 4 and 5).

Diversity and flexibility in implementation choices exist for adaptation, mitigation (including carbon dioxide removal, CDR) and remedial measures (such as solar radiation modification, SRM), and a potential for trade-offs and synergies between these choices and sustainable development (IPCC, 2014d; Olsson et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r264|264]]</sup> . The responses chosen could act to synergistically enhance mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development, or they may result in trade-offs which positively impact some aspects and negatively impact others. Climate change is expected to decrease the likelihood of achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). While some strategies limiting warming towards 1.5°C are expected to significantly increase the likelihood of meeting those goals while also providing synergies for climate adaptation and mitigation (Chapter 5).

Dramatic transformations required to achieve the enabling conditions for a 1.5°C warmer world could impose trade-offs on dimensions of development (IPCC, 2014c; Olsson et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r265|265]]</sup> . Some choices of adaptation methods also could adversely impact development (Olsson et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r266|266]]</sup> . This report recognizes the potential for adverse impacts and focuses on finding the synergies between limiting warming, sustainable development, and eradicating poverty, thus highlighting pathways that do not constrain other goals, such as sustainable development and eradicating poverty.

The report is framed to address these multiple goals simultaneously and assesses the conditions to achieve a cost-effective and socially acceptable solution, rather than addressing these goals piecemeal (von Stechow et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r267|267]]</sup> (Section 4.5.4 and Chapter 5), although there may be different synergies and trade-offs between a 2°C (von Stechow et al., 2016) <sup>[[#fn:r268|268]]</sup> and 1.5°C warmer world (Kainuma et al., 2017) <sup>[[#fn:r269|269]]</sup> . Climate-resilient development pathways (see Cross-Chapter Box 12 in Chapter 5 and Glossary) are trajectories that strengthen sustainable development, including mitigating and adapting to climate change and efforts to eradicate poverty while promoting fair and cross-scalar resilience in a changing climate. They take into account dynamic livelihoods; the multiple dimensions of poverty, structural inequalities; and equity between and among poor and non-poor people (Olsson et al., 2014) <sup>[[#fn:r270|270]]</sup> . Climate-resilient development pathways can be considered at different scales, including cities, rural areas, regions or at global level (Denton et al., 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r271|271]]</sup> ; Chapter 5).

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