Editing IPCC:AR6/SROCC/Chapter-2 (section)

==== 2.3.2.2 Exposure, Vulnerability and Impacts ====

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===== 2.3.2.2.1 Changes in exposure =====

Confirming findings from SREX, there is ''high confidence'' that the exposure of people and infrastructure to cryosphere hazards in high mountain regions has increased over recent decades, and this trend is expected to continue in the future (Figure 2.7). In some regions, tourism development has increased exposure, where often weakly regulated expansion of infrastructure such as roads, trails, and overnight lodging brought more visitors into remote valleys and exposed sites (Gardner et al., 2002 <sup>[[#fn:r601|601]]</sup> ; Uniyal, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r603|603]]</sup> ). As an example for the consequences of increased exposure, many of the more than 350 fatalities resulting from the 2015 earthquake triggered snow-ice avalanche in Langtang, Nepal, were foreign trekkers and their local guides (Kargel et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r603|603]]</sup> ). Further, several thousand religious pilgrims were killed during the 2013 Kedarnath glacier flood disaster (State of Uttarakhand, Northern India) (Kala, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r604|604]]</sup> ). The expansion of hydropower (Section 2.3.1) is another key factor, and in the Himalaya alone, up to two-thirds of the current and planned hydropower projects are located in the path of potential glacier floods (Schwanghart et al., 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r605|605]]</sup> ). Changes in exposure of local communities, for instance, through emigration driven by climate change related threats (Grau and Aide, 2007 <sup>[[#fn:r606|606]]</sup> ; Gosai and Sulewski, 2014 <sup>[[#fn:r607|607]]</sup> ), or increased connectivity and quality of life in urban centres (Tiwari and Joshi, 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r608|608]]</sup> ), are complex and vary regionally. The effects of changes in exposure on labour migration and relocation of entire communities are discussed in Section 2.3.7.

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===== 2.3.2.2.2 Changes in vulnerability =====

Considering the wide ranging social, economic, and institutional factors that enable communities to adequately prepare for, respond to and recover from climate change impacts (Cutter and Morath, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r609|609]]</sup> ), there is ''limited evidence'' and ''high agreement'' that mountain communities, particularly within developing countries, are highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of enhanced cryosphere hazards. There are few studies that have systematically investigated the vulnerability of mountain communities to natural hazards (Carey et al., 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r610|610]]</sup> ). Coping capacities to withstand impacts from natural hazards in mountain communities are constrained due to a number of reasons. Fundamental weather and climate information is lacking to support both short-term early warning for imminent disasters, and long-term adaptation planning (Rohrer et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r611|611]]</sup> ; Xenarios et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r612|612]]</sup> ). Communities may be politically and socially marginalised (Marston, 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r613|613]]</sup> ). Incomes are typically lower and opportunities for livelihood diversification restricted (McDowell et al., 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r614|614]]</sup> ). Emergency responders can have difficulties accessing remote mountain valleys after disasters strike (Sati and Gahalaut, 2013 <sup>[[#fn:r615|615]]</sup> ). Cultural or social ties to the land can limit freedom of movement (Oliver-Smith, 1996 <sup>[[#fn:r615|615]]</sup> ). Conversely, there is evidence that some mountain communities exhibit enhanced levels of resilience, drawing on long-standing experience, and Indigenous knowledge and local knowledge (Cross-Chapter Box 4 in Chapter 1) gained over many centuries of living with extremes of climate and related disasters (Gardner and Dekens, 2006 <sup>[[#fn:r616|616]]</sup> ). In the absence of sufficient data, few studies have considered temporal trends in vulnerability (Huggel et al., 2015a <sup>[[#fn:r617|617]]</sup> ).

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===== 2.3.2.2.3 Impacts on livelihoods =====

Empirical evidence from past events shows that cryosphere related landslides and floods can have severe impacts on lives and livelihoods, often extending far beyond the directly affected region, and persisting for several years. Glacier lake outburst floods alone have over the past two centuries directly caused at least 400 deaths in Europe, 5,745 deaths in South America, and 6,300 deaths in Asia (Carrivick and Tweed, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r619|619]]</sup> ), although these numbers are heavily skewed by individual large events occurring in Huaraz and Yungay, Peru (Carey, 2005 <sup>[[#fn:r620|620]]</sup> ) and Kedarnath, India (Allen et al., 2016b <sup>[[#fn:r621|621]]</sup> ).

Economic losses associated with these events are incurred through two pathways. The first consists of direct losses due to the disasters, and the second includes indirect costs from the additional risk and loss of potential opportunities, or from additional investment that would be necessary to manage or adapt to the challenges brought about by the cryosphere changes. Nationwide economic impacts from glacier floods have been greatest in Nepal and Bhutan (Carrivick and Tweed, 2016 <sup>[[#fn:r622|622]]</sup> ). The disruption of vital transportation corridors that can impact trading of goods and services (Gupta and Sah, 2008 <sup>[[#fn:r623|623]]</sup> ; Khanal et al., 2015 <sup>[[#fn:r624|624]]</sup> ), and the loss of earnings from tourism can represent significant far-reaching and long-lasting impacts (Nothiger and Elsasser, 2004 <sup>[[#fn:r625|625]]</sup> ; IHCAP, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r626|626]]</sup> ). The Dig Tsho flood in the Khumbu Himal of Nepal in 1985 damaged a hydropower plant and other properties, with estimated economic losses of 500 million USD (Shrestha et al., 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r627|627]]</sup> ). Less tangible, but equally important impacts concern the cultural and social disruption resulting from temporary or permanent evacuation (Oliver-Smith, 1979 <sup>[[#fn:r628|628]]</sup> ). According to the International Disaster – Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), over the period 1985–2014, absolute economic losses in mountain regions from all flood and mass movements (including non-cryosphere origins) were highest in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya region (45 billion USD), followed by the European Alps (7 billion USD), and the Andes (3 billion USD) (Stäubli et al., 2018 <sup>[[#fn:r629|629]]</sup> ). For example, a project to dig a channel in Tsho Rolpa glacier in Nepal that lowered a glacial lake cost 3 million USD in 2000 (Bajracharya, 2010 <sup>[[#fn:r630|630]]</sup> ), and similar measures have been taken at Imja Tsho Lake in Nepal in 2016 (Cuellar and McKinney, 2017 <sup>[[#fn:r631|631]]</sup> ). Other impacts are related to drinking and irrigation water and livelihoods (Section 2.3.1). In summary, there is ''high confidence'' that in the context of mountain flood and landslide hazards, exposure, and vulnerability growing in the coming century, significant risk reduction and adaptation strategies will be required to avoid increased impacts.

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