Editing IPCC:AR6/WGI/Chapter-7 (section)

===== 7.3.3.2.3 Overall assessment of ERFaci =====

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The assessment of ERFaci based on observational evidence alone (–1.0 ± 0.7 W m <sup>–2</sup> ) is very similar to the one based on model evidence alone (–1.0 ± 0.8 W m <sup>–2</sup> ), in strong contrast to what was reported in AR5. This reconciliation of observation-based and model-based estimates is the result of considerable scientific progress and reflects comparable revisions of both model-based and observation-based estimates. The strong agreement between the two largely independent lines of evidence increases confidence in the overall assessment of the central estimate and ''very likely'' range for ERFaci of –1.0 ± 0.7 W m <sup>–2</sup> ( ''medium confidence'' ). The assessed range is consistent with but narrower than that reported by the review of [[#Bellouin--2020|Bellouin et al. (2020)]] of –2.65 to –0.07 W m <sup>–2</sup> . The difference is primarily due to a wider range in the adjustment contribution to ERFaci in [[#Bellouin--2020|Bellouin et al. (2020)]] , however adjustments reported relative to IRFaci ranging from 40% to 150% in that study are fully consistent with the ERFaci assessment presented here.

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