Jump to content
Main menu
Main menu
move to sidebar
hide
Navigation
Main page
Recent changes
Random page
Help about MediaWiki
Special pages
ClimateKG
Search
Search
English
Appearance
Create account
Log in
Personal tools
Create account
Log in
Pages for logged out editors
learn more
Contributions
Talk
Editing
IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13
(section)
IPCC
Discussion
English
Read
Edit source
View history
Tools
Tools
move to sidebar
hide
Actions
Read
Edit source
View history
General
What links here
Related changes
Page information
In other projects
Appearance
move to sidebar
hide
Warning:
You are not logged in. Your IP address will be publicly visible if you make any edits. If you
log in
or
create an account
, your edits will be attributed to your username, along with other benefits.
Anti-spam check. Do
not
fill this in!
== 13.4 Ocean and Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services == <div id="13.4.1" class="h2-container"></div> <span id="observed-impacts-and-projected-risks-2"></span> === 13.4.1 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks === <div id="h2-11-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div> <div id="13.4.1.1" class="h3-container"></div> <span id="observed-impacts"></span> ==== 13.4.1.1 Observed Impacts ==== <div id="h3-9-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div> Warming continues to be the key climate hazard for European seas (Figure 13.1). Interacting with other climatic and non-climatic drivers, it has detectable and attributable impacts at a wide range of biological and ecological organisational levels (Figure 13.11). <div id="_idContainer037" class="Figure"></div> [[File:23c8ea629db1257572940528be9203c7 IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_011.png]] '''Figure 13.11 |''' '''Major impacts and risks for marine and coastal ecosystems in Europe for observed and projected 1''' '''.''' '''5°C and 3.0°C GWL''' (Table SM13.4) Particularly habitat loss in shallow coastal waters and at the coasts themselves, and northward distribution shifts of populations and communities, are evident across all European marine sub-regions ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11; Chapter 3). Marine heatwaves have had severe ecological impacts in SEUS ( ''high confidence'' ) (Cross-Chapter Paper 4), threatening sessile benthic biotas and coastal habitats ( [[#Munari--2011|Munari, 2011]] ; [[#Kersting--2013|Kersting et al., 2013]] ; [[#Rivetti--2014|Rivetti et al., 2014]] ; [[#Garrabou--2019|Garrabou et al., 2019]] ). Range contractions, extirpations ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Smale--2020|Smale, 2020]] ) and species redistributions have been observed ( ''high confidence'' ) in TEUS ( [[#Cottier-Cook--2017|Cottier-Cook et al., 2017]] ) and SEUS ( [[#Castellanos-Galindo--2020|Castellanos-Galindo et al., 2020]] ). Habitat losses, range shifts, species invasions and species thermal preferences have altered community compositions ( [[#Vasilakopoulos--2017|Vasilakopoulos et al., 2017]] ), resulting in the ‘subtropicalisation’ of TEUS and ‘tropicalisation’ of SEUS (Chapter 3; Cross-Chapter Paper 4) and temperature-dependent timing of abundance and reproduction cycles ( [[#Hjerne--2019|Hjerne et al., 2019]] ; [[#Polte--2021|Polte et al., 2021]] ; [[#Uriarte--2021|Uriarte et al., 2021]] ). Reductions in growth and reproductive success of calcifying species are not yet unambiguously detected and attributed in European seas ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11), as many show resilience ( [[#Kroeker--2010|Kroeker et al., 2010]] ; [[#Wall--2015|Wall et al., 2015]] ). However, fish population sizes are shrinking ( [[#Queirós--2018|Queirós et al., 2018]] ; [[#Ikpewe--2021|Ikpewe et al., 2021]] ), and growth, reproduction and recruitment are negatively impacted ( [[#Lindegren--2018|Lindegren et al., 2018]] ; [[#Goldberg--2019|Goldberg et al., 2019]] ; [[#Hidalgo--2019|Hidalgo et al., 2019]] ; [[#Vieira--2019|Vieira et al., 2019]] ; [[#Denechaud--2020|Denechaud et al., 2020]] ; [[#Maynou--2020|Maynou et al., 2020]] ; [[#Polte--2021|Polte et al., 2021]] ), though positive effects also occur ( [[#Sguotti--2019|Sguotti et al., 2019]] ; [[#Tanner--2019|Tanner et al., 2019]] ). Biodiversity changes depend on region, habitat and taxon ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11) overall resulting in the redistribution of biodiversity in Europe ( [[#García%20Molinos--2016|García Molinos et al., 2016]] ), and biodiversity declines in some sub-regions ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#IPBES--2018|IPBES, 2018]] ). Biological and ecological impacts have cascading effects for marine ecosystem functioning ( [[#Chivers--2017|Chivers et al., 2017]] ; [[#Baird--2019|Baird et al., 2019]] ) and biogeochemical cycling ( [[#Huete-Stauffer--2011|Huete-Stauffer et al., 2011]] ; [[#Munari--2011|Munari, 2011]] ; [[#Kersting--2013|Kersting et al., 2013]] ; [[#Rivetti--2014|Rivetti et al., 2014]] ; [[#Garrabou--2019|Garrabou et al., 2019]] ). In TEUS, increased water-column stratification ( [[#13.1|Section 13.1]] ) and decreasing eutrophication, result in reduced primary production ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11; [[#Capuzzo--2018|Capuzzo et al., 2018]] ) and productivity at higher trophic levels ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ), while in NEUS sea ice decline has resulted in primary production increase by 40–60% ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11; [[#Arrigo--2015|Arrigo and van Dijken, 2015]] ; [[#Borsheim--2017|Borsheim, 2017]] ; [[#Lewis--2020|Lewis et al., 2020]] ). Climate-related deoxygenation impacts are small in most European waters ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11), expect for semi-enclosed seas such as the Baltic and Black seas ( [[#Frolov--2014|Frolov et al., 2014]] ; [[#Jacob--2014|Jacob et al., 2014]] ; [[#Reusch--2018|Reusch et al., 2018]] ). Here warming and eutrophication have altered ecosystem functioning ( ''high confidence'' ), reduced potential fish yield and increased harmful algal blooms ( [[#Alekseev--2014|Alekseev et al., 2014]] ; [[#Carstensen--2014|Carstensen et al., 2014]] ; [[#Berdalet--2017|Berdalet et al., 2017]] ; [[#Daskalov--2017|Daskalov et al., 2017]] ; [[#Riebesell--2018|Riebesell et al., 2018]] ; [[#Stanev--2018|Stanev et al., 2018]] ) along with the risks of ''Vibrio'' pathogens and vibriosis ( [[#13.7.1|Section 13.7.1]] ; [[#Baker-Austin--2017|Baker-Austin et al., 2017]] ; [[#Semenza--2017|Semenza et al., 2017]] ). Across all European seas there is only ''low confidence'' of a consistent change in provisioning ecosystem services (e.g., fishing yields) ( [[#13.5|Section 13.5]] ), because of inter-regional variability, but ''high confidence'' in the decrease in regulating services and coastal protection because of the cascading effects of ecosystem impacts (Figure 13.11). <div id="13.4.1.2" class="h3-container"></div> <span id="projected-risks"></span> ==== 13.4.1.2 Projected Risks ==== <div id="h3-10-siblings" class="h3-siblings"></div> Risks to marine and coastal European ecosystems are ''very likely'' to intensify (Figure 13.11) in response to projected further warming. Since the capacity of natural systems for autonomous adaptation is limited ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Thomsen--2017|Thomsen et al., 2017]] ; [[#Miller--2018|Miller et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bindoff--2019|Bindoff et al., 2019]] ), pronounced changes in community composition and biodiversity patterns are projected by 2100 for TEUS and the eastern Mediterranean Sea (SEUS) for >3°C GWL ( [[#García%20Molinos--2016|García Molinos et al., 2016]] ), challenging conservation efforts ( [[#Corrales--2018|Corrales et al., 2018]] ; [[#Cramer--2018|Cramer et al., 2018]] ; [[#Kim--2019|Kim et al., 2019]] ). At 1.5°C GWL, particularly in winter, Mediterranean coastal fish communities are projected to lose ~10% of species, increasing to ~60% at 4°C GWL ( [[#Dahlke--2020|Dahlke et al., 2020]] ), exacerbating regime shifts linked to overexploitation ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Clark--2020|Clark et al., 2020]] ). Warming at this level will threaten many species currently living in marine protected areas (MPAs) in TEUS and NEUS ( [[#Bruno--2018|Bruno et al., 2018]] ). Increasing marine heatwaves (MWHs), particularly in SEUS at 4°C GWL ( [[#Darmaraki--2019a|Darmaraki et al., 2019a]] ), elevate risks for species ( [[#Galli--2017|Galli et al., 2017]] ), coastal biodiversity, and ecosystem functions, goods and services ( [[#Smale--2019|Smale et al., 2019]] ); however, MWH-related risk levels differ among biotas ( [[#Pansch--2018|Pansch et al., 2018]] ) and across European seas ( [[#Smale--2015|Smale et al., 2015]] ). Marine primary production is projected to further decrease by 2100 in most European seas between 0.3% at 1.5°C GWL to 2.7% at 4°C GWL ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11), mainly caused by stratification-driven reductions in nutrient availability, impacting food webs ( [[#Doney--2012|Doney et al., 2012]] ; [[#Laufkoetter--2015|Laufkoetter et al., 2015]] ; [[#Wakelin--2015|Wakelin et al., 2015]] ; [[#Salihoglu--2017|Salihoglu et al., 2017]] ; [[#Holt--2018|Holt et al., 2018]] ; [[#Bryndum-Buchholz--2019|Bryndum-Buchholz et al., 2019]] ; [[#Carozza--2019|Carozza et al., 2019]] ; [[#Kwiatkowski--2019|Kwiatkowski et al., 2019]] ). In the Barents Sea, however, largely stable primary production is projected under all scenarios in response to sea ice decline ( [[#Slagstad--2011|Slagstad et al., 2011]] ) and in the eastern Mediterranean due to reduced stratification ( [[#Macias--2015|Macias et al., 2015]] ; [[#Moullec--2019|Moullec et al., 2019]] ). These changes in productivity are projected to increase fish and macroinvertebrate biomass between 5 and 22% ( [[#Moullec--2019|Moullec et al., 2019]] ). Decreasing net primary production will impact higher trophic levels ( [[#13.5.1|Section 13.5.1]] ), for example, in TEUS ( [[#Holt--2016|Holt et al., 2016]] ; [[#Holt--2018|Holt et al., 2018]] ). Marine animal biomass is projected to ''likely'' decline in most European waters, with decreases <10% under all scenarios until the 2030s but losses growing to 25% at 2°C GWL and 50% at 4°C GWL in coastal waters of the northeast Atlantic ( [[#Lotze--2019|Lotze et al., 2019]] ; [[#Bryndum-Buchholz--2020|Bryndum-Buchholz et al., 2020]] ). Ocean acidification and its biological and ecological risks are projected to rise in European waters by impeding growth and reproductive success of vulnerable calcifying organisms ( ''medium confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11). Coralline algae are projected to reduce skeletal performance at 3°C GWL, with negative consequences for habitat formation ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Ragazzola--2016|Ragazzola et al., 2016]] ). Regionally ( [[#Brodie--2014|Brodie et al., 2014]] ), differences in species-specific vulnerability will result in community shifts from calcifying macroalgae ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Ragazzola--2013|Ragazzola et al., 2013]] ) to non-calcifying macroalgae ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Gordillo--2016|Gordillo et al., 2016]] ). Experimental studies demonstrated high resilience of some important habitat formers, such as the deep-water coral ''Lophelia pertusa'' ( [[#Wall--2015|Wall et al., 2015]] ; [[#Morato--2020|Morato et al., 2020]] ), and habitat engineers, such as Mediterranean limpets ( [[#Langer--2014|Langer et al., 2014]] ), facilitated by energy reallocation. However, if not supported by sufficient food availability ( [[#Thomsen--2013|Thomsen et al., 2013]] ; [[#Clements--2018|Clements and Darrow, 2018]] ), such energy reallocation will negatively impact growth or reproduction ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Thomsen--2013|Thomsen et al., 2013]] ; [[#Büscher--2017|Büscher et al., 2017]] ). This suggests that acidification risks will be amplified by increased stratification and reduced primary production ( ''medium confidence'' ). The emergence of harmful algal blooms and pathogens at higher GWLs is unclear across all European seas ( ''low confidence'' ) (Figure 13.11). Risks to marine biotas and ecosystems in European seas are projected to impact important ecosystem services (Figure 13.11). Elevated CO 2 levels predicted at 4°C GWL will affect the C/N ratio of organic-matter export and, hence, the efficiency of the biological pump ( ''low confidence'' ), depending on the shifts in plankton composition and, hence, food-web structure ( [[#Taucher--2020|Taucher et al., 2020]] ). Atlantic herring ( ''Clupea harengus'' ) will benefit with enhanced larval growth and survival from indirect food-web effects ( [[#Sswat--2018a|Sswat et al., 2018a]] ), whereas Atlantic cod ( ''Gadus morhua'' ) will face overall negative impacts ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#13.5|Section 13.5]] ; [[#Stiasny--2018|Stiasny et al., 2018]] ; [[#Stiasny--2019|Stiasny et al., 2019]] ). Anoxic dead zones in the Black ( [[#Altieri--2015|Altieri and Gedan, 2015]] ) and the Baltic ( [[#Jokinen--2018|Jokinen et al., 2018]] ; [[#Reusch--2018|Reusch et al., 2018]] ) seas are projected to increase, for example, by 5% in the Baltic Sea at 4°C GWL ( [[#Saraiva--2019|Saraiva et al., 2019]] ). Europe’s coastal vegetated ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems (subtidal seagrass meadows and intertidal salt marshes) are highly vulnerable ( [[#Spencer--2016|Spencer et al., 2016]] ; [[#Schuerch--2018|Schuerch et al., 2018]] ; [[#Spivak--2019|Spivak et al., 2019]] ), particularly in microtidal areas such as the Baltic and Mediterranean coast. Losses are projected for ''Posidonia oceanica'' seagrass habitats in the Mediterranean by up to 75% at 2.5°C GWL ( ''low confidence'' ) (Chapter 3). The Wadden Sea, the world’s largest system of intertidal flats, is projected to reduce in surface area and height, as the sediment transport capacity limits the possibility of growth with rapidly rising sea levels ( [[#Wang--2018|Wang et al., 2018]] ; [[#Jiang--2020|Jiang et al., 2020]] ). For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the critical rate of 6–10 mm yr –1 , at which intertidal flats will start to ‘drown’, will be reached by 2030 at 1.5°C GWL ( ''medium confidence'' ), or even earlier through subsidence due to human activities ( [[#van%20der%20Spek--2018|van der Spek, 2018]] ). European coastal zones provided a total of 494 billion EUR of ecosystem services in 2018, and 4.2–5.1% of this value will be lost due to coastal erosion by 2100 at 2.5°C and 4.6°C GWL, respectively ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Paprotny--2021|Paprotny et al., 2021]] ). <div id="13.4.2" class="h2-container"></div> <span id="solution-space-and-adaptation-options-2"></span> === 13.4.2 Solution Space and Adaptation Options === <div id="h2-12-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div> Human adaptation options for marine systems encompass socio-institutional adaptation, technology and measures supporting autonomous adaptation (Chapter 3). Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and marine spatial planning (MSP) are frameworks for addressing climate-change adaptation needs as well as operationalising and enforcing marine conservation; however, ICZM and MSP commonly do not explicitly take climate-change adaptation into consideration ( [[#Elliott--2015|Elliott et al., 2015]] ). Transboundary ICZM and/or MSP ( [[#Gormley--2015|Gormley et al., 2015]] ) will become even more important with the projected acceleration of range extensions and ecological regime shifts due to climate change ( [[#IPCC--2019|IPCC, 2019]] ). Many climate-change adaptation governance and implementation measures are embedded in international strategies, such as HELCOM (Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission) ( [[#Backer--2010|Backer et al., 2010]] ), OSPAR (Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic) ( [[#OSPAR--2009|OSPAR, 2009]] ), and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and European Water Framework Directive (EWFD) of the EU. In the Russian Arctic, mainly the Barents Sea, conservation priority areas (CPA) have been identified as Ecologically and Biologically Significant Areas (EBSA) ( [[#Solovyev--2017|Solovyev et al., 2017]] ); however, plans are generally at a relatively early stage ( [[#Miller--2018|Miller et al., 2018]] ) and assessments of the effectiveness of these policy frameworks to accelerate climate-change adaptation are ongoing ( [[#Haasnoot--2020a|Haasnoot et al., 2020a]] ). ‘Green’ adaptations, either EbA or NbS, are part of adaptive management strategies (European Comission, 2011) that facilitate coastal flood protection ( [[#13.2.2|Section 13.2.2]] ; Chapter 3; CCC SLR) and generate benefits beyond habitat creation ( ''medium confidence'' ), for example, from avoided expenditures for flood defence infrastructure and avoided loss of the built assets ( [[#Gedan--2010|Gedan et al., 2010]] ).MPAs have been identified as adaptation options for natural areas, including permitted and non-permitted uses (Chapter 3; [[#Selig--2014|Selig et al., 2014]] ; [[#Hopkins--2016a|Hopkins et al., 2016a]] ; [[#Roberts--2017|Roberts et al., 2017]] ). The extent of MPAs has been increasing in Europe, albeit with strong regional variations (Figure 13.12). These MPAs provide protection from local stressors, such as commercial exploitation, and enhance the resilience of marine and coastal ecosystems, thus lessening the impacts of climate change ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Narayan--2016|Narayan et al., 2016]] ; [[#Roberts--2017|Roberts et al., 2017]] ); however, climate-change risk reduction is only a limited MPA objective ( [[#Hopkins--2016b|Hopkins et al., 2016b]] ; [[#Rilov--2019|Rilov et al., 2019]] ). The implementation of the legal frameworks, such as the EC Habitats Directive and EC Birds Directive, allows for enabling adaptation ( [[#Verschuuren--2015|Verschuuren, 2015]] ) as does the incorporation of climate considerations in management of Natura 2000 sites (European Comission, 2014). There is evidence that better international cooperation is required to increase the effectiveness of the MSFD ( [[#Cavallo--2019|Cavallo et al., 2019]] ), and the Good Environmental Status is currently not effectively monitored ( [[#Machado--2019|Machado et al., 2019]] ). <div id="_idContainer039" class="Figure"></div> [[File:66a1a3bf0828a5bebbdf5714fc546caf IPCC_AR6_WGII_Figure_13_012.png]] '''Figure 13.12 |''' '''Marine protected areas (MPAs) in European seas.''' Shown are proportions of designated and proposed MPAs in the total areas of northern (NEUS), temperate (TEUS) and southern (SEUS) European seas, as well as the shares of no-take, partial, unimplemented and unknown protection levels of designated MPAs ( [[#Marine%20Conservation%20Institute--2021|Marine Conservation Institute, 2021]] ). Moreover, the average increase of surface sea temperatures at 4.0°C GWL by 2100 in NEUS, TEUS and SEUS is indicated. The greatest benefits are obtained from large, long-established, no-take MPAs ( [[#Edgar--2014|Edgar et al., 2014]] ), yet most MPAs in Europe are partially protected or multi-use areas, and existing no-take areas tend to be very small (<50 km 2 ). No-take areas account, in total, for less than 0.4% of the area of European waters (Figure 13.12) and are often nested within multi-use MPAs. In some partially protected MPAs, local stressors, such as fishing, are higher than adjacent unprotected areas ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Zupan--2018a|Zupan et al., 2018a]] ; [[#Mazaris--2019|Mazaris et al., 2019]] ). Despite evidence for climate mitigation benefits of no-take zones ( [[#Roberts--2017|Roberts et al., 2017]] ), the efficacy of partially protected MPAs is debated and dependent on local management ( [[#Zupan--2018b|Zupan et al., 2018b]] ). Marine protected areas of all types require effective management to contribute to mitigating climate-change impacts, including effective monitoring and enforcement ( [[#Watson--2014|Watson et al., 2014]] ), yet the management effectiveness of European MPAs has repeatedly been called into question ( [[#Batista--2016|Batista and Cabral, 2016]] ; [[#Amengual--2018|Amengual and Alvarez-Berastegui, 2018]] ; [[#Fraschetti--2018|Fraschetti et al., 2018]] ; [[#Rilov--2019|Rilov et al., 2019]] ). Many MPAs lack management plans, and insufficient resources are frequently an issue ( [[#Álvarez-Fernández--2017|Álvarez-Fernández et al., 2017]] ; [[#Schéré--2020|Schéré et al., 2020]] ). Thus, while substantial in potential, the current capacity of the European MPA network to reduce climate-change impacts is limited ( [[#Jones--2016|Jones et al., 2016]] ; [[#Claudet--2020|Claudet et al., 2020]] ). Conservation approaches (e.g., MPAs, climate refugia), habitat restoration efforts ( [[#Bekkby--2020|Bekkby et al., 2020]] ) and further ecosystem-based management policies do support alleviation of, or adaptation to, climate-change impacts ( ''medium confidence'' ) but are themselves impacted by climate change (Chapter 3). Moreover, the interaction of adaptation and mitigation measures poses risks to marine systems. Many coastal regions of the North Sea, especially in the south, are particularly susceptible to rising sea levels because of the strong tidal regime and the effects of storm surges (Figure 13.3). Hard measures to protect human infrastructure against SLR ( [[#13.2|Section 13.2]] ) will lead to loss of coastal habitats, with negative impacts on marine biodiversity (Cross-Chapter Box SLR in Chapter 3; [[#Airoldi--2007|Airoldi and Beck, 2007]] ; [[#Cooper--2016|Cooper et al., 2016]] ). While rising sea levels will also directly threaten intertidal and beach ecosystems, coastal wetlands will benefit ( ''medium confidence'' ), in case lateral accommodation space and the opportunity for systems to migrate landward and upwards is provided, enhancing their ability to capture and store carbon ( [[#Lecocq--2022|Lecocq et al., 2022]] ; [[#Rogers--2019|Rogers et al., 2019]] ). In general, European coastal blue carbon ecosystems (e.g., seagrass meadows, kelp forests, tidal marshes) ( [[#Bekkby--2020|Bekkby et al., 2020]] ) are potentially effective as carbon sinks in climate mitigation, akin to reforestation efforts on land ( [[#13.3|Section 13.3]] ); however, their expansion has the potential to interfere with other ecosystem services ( [[#Cadier--2020|Cadier et al., 2020]] ) and biodiversity conservation ( [[#Howard--2017|Howard et al., 2017]] ; [[#Chausson--2020|Chausson et al., 2020]] ). The ‘Blue Growth’ strategy of the European Commission with the aim to increase offshore activities (European Comission, 2012) will increase the pressures on the marine environments ( ''medium confidence'' ). Large-scale offshore wind-park infrastructure is currently developed in European seas, mostly in the North Sea ( [[#WindEuropeBusinessIntelligence--2019|WindEuropeBusinessIntelligence, 2019]] ), as a major component of climate-change mitigation efforts ( [[#Clarke--2022|Clarke et al., 2022]] ). The introduction of novel hard-substrate intertidal habitats has, and will continue to have, profound ecological ramifications for marine systems, including hydrodynamic changes, stepping stones for non-native species, noise and vibration, and changes in the food web ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Lindeboom--2011|Lindeboom et al., 2011]] ; [[#De%20Mesel--2015|De Mesel et al., 2015]] ; [[#Gill--2018|Gill et al., 2018]] ; [[#Dannheim--2019|Dannheim et al., 2019]] ). <div id="13.4.3" class="h2-container"></div> <span id="knowledge-gaps-2"></span> === 13.4.3 Knowledge Gaps === <div id="h2-13-siblings" class="h2-siblings"></div> Major knowledge gaps are uncertainties and shortcomings in our understanding of combined, cascading and interacting impacts of climatic and non-climatic pressures on European marine and coastal socio-ecological systems ( [[#Korpinen--2021|Korpinen et al., 2021]] ). Further observational, experimental and modelling work will enhance the insight into multiple drivers, processes and their interactions, strengthen the confidence of risk projections and provide a foundation for future adaptation actions. There is limited knowledge about the connectivity among populations, species and ecosystems which would provide new recruits, enable gene flow in MPA networks ( [[#Dubois--2016|Dubois et al., 2016]] ; [[#Sahyoun--2016|Sahyoun et al., 2016]] ) and facilitate assisted migration. Such MPAs cover a wide range of protection status with ''limited evidence'' regarding which level of protection and connectivity is needed to achieve adaptations goals in response to future warming. Although European seas and coasts are comparatively well studied on a global scale, the spatial and temporal resolution and coverage of open-access data is still limited in many regions, particularly in EEU. The detection and attribution of ongoing or emerging environmental and biological changes are therefore limited. Some efforts are in place, such as the six ‘Sea-basin Checkpoints’ (North Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Arctic, Atlantic, Baltic, Black Sea) that were established in 2013 under The European Marine Observation and Data Network, but high-quality observations of key ocean characteristics at the level of regional sea basins are still too scarce to support decision making for marine adaptation ( [[#Míguez--2019|Míguez et al., 2019]] ). <div id="13.5" class="h1-container"></div> <span id="food-fibre-and-other-ecosystem-products"></span>
Summary:
Please note that all contributions to ClimateKG may be edited, altered, or removed by other contributors. If you do not want your writing to be edited mercilessly, then do not submit it here.
You are also promising us that you wrote this yourself, or copied it from a public domain or similar free resource (see
ClimateKG:Copyrights
for details).
Do not submit copyrighted work without permission!
Cancel
Editing help
(opens in new window)
Search
Search
Editing
IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-13
(section)
Add languages
Add topic