Editing IPCC:AR6/WGII/Chapter-14 (section)

==== 14.5.4.2 Observed Impacts and Projected Risks: Fisheries and Aquaculture ====

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Climate impacts outlined in [[#14.5.2|Section 14.5.2]] have induced yield losses for multiple subsistence, recreational and commercial fisheries ( ''very high confidence'' ), and contributed to commercial fishery closures across North America (Sections 14.5.1, 14.5.3; Figure 14.6; Table SM14.7; [[#Lynn--2014|Lynn et al., 2014]] ; [[#Barbeaux--2020|Barbeaux et al., 2020]] ; [[#Fisher--2021|Fisher et al., 2021]] ). Climate-driven declines in productivity are widespread ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 14.6), although a few increases are observed in northern regions ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#Cunningham--2018|Cunningham et al., 2018]] ; [[#Crozier--2019|Crozier et al., 2019]] ; [[#Zhang--2019b|Zhang et al., 2019b]] ). Redistribution of species has increased travel distance to fishing grounds, shifted stocks across regulatory and international boundaries, and increased interactions with protected species ( ''very high confidence'' ) (Figure 14.6; Table SM14.7; Cross-Chapter Box MOVING PLATE in Chapter 5; [[#Morley--2018|Morley et al., 2018]] ; [[#Free--2019|Free et al., 2019]] ; [[#IPCC--2019b|IPCC, 2019b]] ; [[#Rogers--2019|Rogers et al., 2019]] ; [[#Stevenson--2019|Stevenson and Lauth, 2019]] ; [[#Young--2019|Young et al., 2019]] ). Climate shocks have reduced yield and increased instability in fishery revenue ( ''high confidence'' ) ( [[#Fisher--2021|Fisher et al., 2021]] ).

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'''Figure 14.6 |''' '''Case studies of climate-change impacts on North American fisheries (blue text) and aquaculture (gray text).'''

Declines in yield and poleward stock redistributions (an average of ~20.6 km per decade) are expected to continue under climate change and increase in magnitude with atmospheric carbon ( ''high confidence'' ) (Table 14.4; [[#Hare--2016|Hare et al., 2016]] ; [[#Pecl--2017|Pecl et al., 2017]] ; [[#Rheuban--2017|Rheuban et al., 2017]] ; [[#Morley--2018|Morley et al., 2018]] ; [[#Smale--2019|Smale et al., 2019]] ; [[#Szuwalski--2021|Szuwalski et al., 2021]] ). For example, without adaptation, end-of-century losses of Bering Sea pollock yield (relative to persistence scenarios) is ''likely'' to reach 50% under moderate (RCP4.5) and 80% under low (RCP8.5) mitigation scenarios, respectively ( [[#Holsman--2020|Holsman et al., 2020]] ). Expanding HABs, pathogens and altered ocean chemistry (OA and dissolved oxygen) will reduce yields and increase closures of fisheries along all North American coasts ( ''medium confidence'' ) ( [[#14.5.2|Section 14.5.2]] ; [[#Deutsch--2015a|Deutsch et al., 2015a]] ; [[#Ekstrom--2015|Ekstrom et al., 2015]] ; [[#Seung--2015|Seung et al., 2015]] ; [[#Punt--2016|Punt et al., 2016]] ; [[#Howard--2020|Howard et al., 2020]] ). For fisheries that represent 56% of current US fishing revenue, projected annual net losses under high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5, 2021–2100) may reach double that of low-emission scenarios (RCP2.6) ( [[#Moore--2021|Moore et al., 2021]] ).

Warming waters and OA have impacted aquaculture production in North America ( ''high confidence'' ) (Figure 14.6; [[#Clements--2017|Clements and Chopin, 2017]] ; [[#Reid--2019|Reid et al., 2019]] ; [[#Stewart-Sinclair--2020|Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020]] ). Under climate change (RCP8.5), declines in marine finfish and bivalve aquaculture become ''likely'' by mid-century ( [[#Froehlich--2018|Froehlich et al., 2018]] ; [[#Stewart-Sinclair--2020|Stewart-Sinclair et al., 2020]] ). Adaptation is possible but uncertain ( [[#Bitter--2019|Bitter et al., 2019]] ; [[#Fitzer--2019|Fitzer et al., 2019]] ; [[#Reid--2019|Reid et al., 2019]] ), especially with increasing extreme events. Nature-based aquaculture solutions (e.g., conservation aquaculture, restorative aquaculture) could aid carbon mitigation and local-level adaptation, especially for seaweed and bivalve culture (see Box 14.7; [[#Froehlich--2017|Froehlich et al., 2017]] ; [[#Froehlich--2019|Froehlich et al., 2019]] ; [[#Reid--2019|Reid et al., 2019]] ; [[#Theuerkauf--2019|Theuerkauf et al., 2019]] ).

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