Editing IPCC:AR6/WGIII/Chapter-4 (section)

==== 4.2.5.6 Efficient Cooling, SLCFs and Co-benefits ====

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In warmer climate regions undergoing economic transitions, improving the energy efficiency of cooling and refrigeration equipment is often important for managing peak electricity demand and can have co-benefits for climate mitigation as well as SLCF reduction, as expected in India, Africa, and Southeast Asia in the future.

Air conditioner adoption is rising significantly in low- and middle-income countries as incomes rise and average temperatures increase, including in Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, as well as Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nigeria ( [[#Biardeau--2020|Biardeau et al. 2020]] ). Cooling appliances are expected to increase from 3.6 billion to 9.5 billion by 2050, though up to 14 billion could be required to provide adequate cooling for all ( [[#Birmingham%20Energy%20Institute--2018|Birmingham Energy Institute 2018]] ). Current technology pathways are not sufficient to deliver universal access to cooling or meet the 2030 targets under the SDGs, but energy efficiency, including in equipment efficiency like air conditioners, can reduce this demand and help limit additional emissions that would further exacerbate climate change ( [[#Biardeau--2020|Biardeau et al. 2020]] ; [[#Dreyfus--2020|Dreyfus et al. 2020]] ; UNEP and [[#IEA--2020|IEA 2020]] ). Some countries (India, South Africa) have started to recognise the need for more efficient equipment in their mitigation strategies (Altieri et al. 2016; [[#Ouedraogo--2017|Ouedraogo 2017]] ; [[#Paladugula--2018|Paladugula et al. 2018]] ).

One possible synergy between SLCF and climate change mitigation is the simultaneous improvement in energy efficiency in refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment during the hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) phase-down, as recognised in the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. The Kigali Amendment and related national and regional regulations are projected to reduce future radiative forcing from HFCs by about half in 2050 compared to a scenario without any HFC controls, and to reduce future global average warming in 2100 from a baseline of 0.3°C–0.5°C to less than 0.1°C, according to a recent scientific assessment of a wide literature ( [[#World%20Meteorological%20Organization--2018|World Meteorological Organization 2018]] ). If ratified by signatories, the rapid phase-down of HFCs under the Kigali Amendment is possible because of extensive replacement of high-global warming potential (GWP) HFCs with commercially available low-GWP alternatives in refrigeration and air-conditioning equipment. Each country’s choices of alternative refrigerants will likely be determined by energy efficiency, costs, and refrigerant toxicity and flammability. National and regional regulations will be needed to drive technological innovation and development ( [[#Polonara--2017|Polonara et al. 2017]] ).

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